Free Agency Primer Part Two

By Giant_Causeway

In the last column, we covered what was easily identified as the top free agents in the market. Whilst some of them were not ranked or were ranked as Type B free agents, they were widely regarded as the top tier of this year’s class. There is another angle to the free agency market and a glance at next year’s free agent class tells its own story. Any GM must be considering passing on this year’s crop and “saving up” for the 2011 version when Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Joe Mauer, Carl Crawford, Victor Martinez and so many elite stars hit the open market. Consider the Yankees’ spending spree last off-season. Why? Well, we all know the Yankees spend like there’s no tomorrow but it was mainly because they took a look at this year’s class and opted to spend their money last year rather then chance their arm in a thin market.

Since the last column, there have been some developments with Ken Griffey Jr one notable name to take his talents off the market by agreeing to a one year deal with the Seattle Mariners. That could impact the Matsui sweepstakes as they had looked a perfect fit for the Japanese’s services. Looking around the majors, there’s not many teams in need of a DH and Matsui may need a considerable pay cut from his 2009 salary to entice teams like the Rangers, As, Rays and the Twins into paying for a full time DH should the Yankees decline to retain the services of their World Series MVP.

Tim Hudson also agreed an extension with the Braves taking a pay cut by $3m for the year but extending his contract for a further 2 years after 2010. He is refreshing in that he took a hometown discount when he could have gotten much more on the open market given the dearth of quality reliable pitching. At just over $9m per season, it is unlikely Hudson has set the market and it could be that pitchers and teams will wait for Lackey to establish market value before agreeing to any deal.

This week we continue our look at this year’s top free agents.

Johnny Damon (New York Yankees)

He’s coming off a second consecutive World Series ring when he is in the last year of his contract! Superstitious GMs could try and sign him as their lucky charm but somehow I don’t think so! Seriously, at the age of 36 yr old, he still has plenty to offer proving himself with enough power for hitters’ park whilst providing good defence in left field. His clubhouse leadership and relaxed style are other benefits to signing this gritty outfielder. The drawback is his age and clubs will surely limit themselves to a maximum offer of two years with plenty of emphasis on next season with possibly an option for 2011. The New York Yankees are obvious contenders to resign him but with Bay and Holliday on the open market, nothing is a given. If the Red Sox move for either, figure the Yankees to strongly consider the other option of the pair of left fielders.

Stash him at DH? For the Yankees, they need to consider Posada’s limited effectiveness as a catcher, the ages of Jeter and Rodriguez meaning they may not have the space for a full time DH with those three names all likely set to find their defensive playing time reduced in a bid to prolong their effectiveness with the bat. The Yankees will surely offer Damon salary arbitration which would suit their preference for a one year deal. The key is whether Damon and Boras feel they can get a three to four years deal elsewhere. The Chicago White Sox are an obvious fit given their need for a lead off hitter and outfielder but whether they have the funds to top the Yankees one year offer or even offer a two year deal is highly debatable.

Damon’s case for a better contract is also complicated by his Type A status meaning any club who signs him must be willing to give up their 1st round pick in 2010. In Damon’s case, Boras could also play hardball with the Yankees insisting since they gave multiyear deals to Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera thus Damon surely warrants a similar 3-4 year contract. That could parlay into a very limited market for Damon and the best bet is for the Yankees to offer salary arbitration forcing Damon to accept a one year deal or risk play the waiting game way into February.

Chone Figgins (Los Angeles Angels)

This speedy utility player can man 2nd, 3rd and play all outfield positions whilst offering speed, lead off skills and good contact rate as well as walks. With the Angels having more pressing needs for an ace and power hitter, it would seem Figgins is merely an afterthought with the Angels’ braintrust. But he has been in discussion over an extension for the past year and with increasing interest, the Angels must surely move quickly. The Yankees and Chicago White Sox are both known admirers of Figgins for his versatility and lead off skills respectively but both have other options and in the White Sox’s case, financial considerations. The Phillies and Mets both love Figgins’ versatility and both could emerge as serious suitors for Figgins’ services. Just what would it take to sign him?

Figgins earned $5,775,000 in 2009 and as comparable yardsticks goes, the Mets’ Luis Castillo, Mark DeRosa and Juan Pierre are likely types. The Mets’ Castillo has similar contact rate and walks but has less speed which bring Juan Pierre of the Dodgers into discussion with Pierre perhaps the more similar to Figgins then Castillo. Mark DeRosa brings his super utility talent to the table for comparison. In 2009, Castillo earned $6.25m, DeRosa earned $5.5m and Pierre $10m. Thus Figgins’ price range looks to be a multiyear deal of between $7-9m per season. Is he worth that kind of investment? Especially at the cost of high draft pick? That is the question teams must ponder should the Angels offer salary arbitration which is highly likely. Given he turns 32 in early 2010 he doesn’t look a shrewd investment for any teams considering a multiyear deal higher then 2 years for a player whose game is also hugely reliant on speed. The Phillies are considering him for the third base position to replace Pedro Feliz but surely they would prefer more power from a corner spot?

Vladimir Guerrero (Los Angeles Angels)

He’s the man the Angels have relied on for power over the last few years but at the age of 35 with dwindling contact rate and OBP allied with declining defensive skills, he will be fighting with several veteran bats for limited DH jobs. The Angels have 5 outfielders at present and Guerrero is unlikely to return unless it’s as a DH. Yes, he can still rake and along with Hideki Matsui, leads the top bats suited for the DH role but just quite where will he go? The Rays and Detroit need a DH but are downsizing their payrolls. The Mariners have resigned Griffey Jr. and Matsui looked a better fit. He’ll be taking a hefty pay cut for sure but one thing’s in his favour and that is the allocated status of Type B meaning teams will not have to consider the loss of a draft pick should they decide to sign Guerrero. The Rangers have been mooted as a perfect for Guerrero but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Oakland make a run at Guerrero should his price range fall below the $7m mark.

John Lackey (Los Angeles Angels)

He’s the undisputed number one starter of this free agent class as the ace of the Angels’ staff and proven post-season smarts. He may have suffered injury problems in the last two seasons but there’s no doubting his toughness and general temperament. Despite his last two season’s injury hiatus at various stages of the season, he’s been generally durable and reliable: two qualities that many pitchers lack. In theory, the Angels should be pulling out the stops to resign him but the problem is his likely demand for a contract similar or better to the one the Yankees handed out to AJ Burnett last winter. Thus the starting point for negotiation is $90m over 5 years which limits the number of available suitors.

Whilst that would be no problem for an elite starter, there has to be a doubt whether Lackey falls under the same category as CC Sabathia, Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee and other aces. But the way teams constantly demand pitching it could well be that the price of what looks a number 2 or 3 starter has risen to $14-15m per season at the least. Considering the deals that Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez and AJ Burnett got last season and we’re talking possibly over $19m per season for 5 years as teams fight over a small pitching pool. Another possible concern regarding Lackey is his injury problems. If the Angels were confident regarding Lackey’s health, surely they would be in discussion over an extension? The fact that they don’t appear to be fighting hard to keep their ace is a slight worry.

The Rangers would be a perfect fit for Lackey as a Texan native but with their ownership issues still unresolved, they are a long shot. Which brings us to the usual suspects of New York and Los Angeles. With the Dodgers undergoing ownership turmoil like the Rangers, we are left with the New York teams and the Angels themselves. I just have that sneaking suspicion, like with Johan Santana; the Mets could find themselves in pole position to sign their second “ace” by default.

Miguel Tejada (Houston Astros)

The Astros are clearly in rebuilding mode but with Drayton McLane as their owner, you never know! I had strongly advocated a rebuilding process at the start of the 2009 season with Oswalt, Berkman, Lee, Valverde and Tejada amongst the more marketable names on their roster. Now with 2010 around the corner, those five names become three with Tejada and Valverde both heading into free agency. Miguel Tejada, at 35 yr old showed he could still rake authoring a batting line of .313/.340/.455/.795 which is useful proving himself durable playing 158 games at shortstop. However, his range at the shortstop diminished from his peak years and he will likely find employment at the third base position in 2010. Like so many other veteran players, he will need to take pay cut as his 14 home runs is below average for the third base position. His age is another concern and the odds on Tejada replicating his healthy 2009 season unless he reduces his playing time decreases.

The Astros wouldn’t mind having Tejada back in the third base position and but will they offer salary arbitration bearing in mind he earned just under $15m in 2009? That is the dilemma they face having missed the chance to trade him in the summer. The chance of high draft picks or risk being saddled with a minimum of $12.9m? The list of suitors figure to be short with the Phillies considering third basemen and other teams seemingly set at the hot corner but much depends on how teams view his defence. Oakland is another possible destination should his price range drop considerably having signed another former favourite son in Jason Giambi last year.

Jose Valverde (Houston Astros)

Like Miguel Tejada above, Valverde is a Type A free agent and like Tejada; the Astros face a dilemma whether to offer salary arbitration. As a closer, his numbers compare favourably with anybody around BUT the reality is different. From my point of view, he is not an elite closer despite outstanding numbers in 2009 and 2007. He walks far too many for comfort and his career numbers suggest he is set to regress in 2010. However, even if the Astros offer arbitration they can still absorb the risk of Valverde accepting as despite suggestions regression is imminent, the Astros do not possess any other viable in house alternatives.

As for the closer market, the Braves duo of Gonzalez and Soriano are solid alternatives whilst JJ Putz and Wagner, former Mets relievers are other excellent alternatives thus possibly driving down the market for closers for this year. Last year, teams exercised restraint in the closer market with limited years and reasonable salaries. This year, the Phillies, Angels, Tigers, Cards and Cubs could all use a closer of current substance and Valverde is as good as any at the moment but they either have alternatives and financial considerations thus possibly exercising restraint once again.

Mike Gonzalez / Rafael Soriano (Atlanta Braves)

I’ve grouped the pair as one as both are similar in that they were the co-closers of the Braves and both are Type A free agents. Both enjoyed superb seasons in Atlanta compiling flashy numbers and both were coming back from injury ravaged previous seasons. They are even of similar ages! Are these two for real? The answer is yes. Soriano, before coming to the Braves showed in flashes with the Mariners what he is capable of and finally put together a dominant season. Gonzalez was always highly regarded as a Pirate and proved himself in his Pirates years as a closer. It was only injuries that had halted his progression.

So which, if any would the Braves keep? Between the duo, strictly on numbers, not much though Gonzalez edges Soriano in terms of ERA. Both are similar ages and the only thing that separates the pair is their handedness. Gonzalez is a lefty whilst Soriano is the righty. However, a closer look at the numbers reveal that Gonzalez actually blew 7 saves in 17 chances whilst Soriano was much more solid converting 27 saves from 31 opportunities. Given the number of tight games the Braves have been involved in this season; Soriano would have to be better closer. However, that would likely parlay into a higher contract and the Braves could choose the cheaper option. Like Valverde above, the Phillies, Angels, Tigers, Cards and Cubs could all use a closer whilst the Yankees could seek a setup man should both Hughes and Joba both start in the rotation.

And that concludes what I feel is this year’s top tier free agents. In the next column, I’ll be looking at the likely top bargains in the market. Some should have been included on this list but that’s sports! It’s all about opinions!

Giant_Causeway