Free Agency Primer - Part Three

By Giant_Causeway

In my last column, someone had suggested I had left out Andy Pettitte. Well, in some ways I did but in my opinion, he's only a free agent on paper. He will only consider two options: a return to the Yankees or retirement. If the Yankees offer a base salary of $10.5m plus incentive, he’ll say yes. But last year, he was peeved at what he considered a derisory offer of “just” $5.5m in base salary plus incentives. Given he is just coming off a magnificent post-season, he’ll likely expect the Yankees to offer a minimum of what he earned in total in 2009 ($10.5m) as a starting point in negotiations. With around $37.6m coming off the books excluding Pettitte’s own salary, there’s no excuse for the Yankees if they fail to “respect” Andy Pettitte.

Elsewhere, the speculations regarding Matt Holliday’s potential destination continues and whilst he is the top free agent in this year’s class, is he an elite star worthy of a Teixeira contract? Like most of Boras’ “elite” clients, the market is likely to be restricted to the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels and Mets with the Cardinals and possibly the Giants long shots. The hope is that Boras can initiate a bidding war between the AL East superpowers similar to last year’s battle for Teixeira. Holliday is a very good player, no doubts about that who should produce 30 HRs, 100 RBIs and a .300 average with good OBP in the .400 range.

What is that kind of production worth? Barring injuries, he should produce that for the next 4-5 years of his career but the problem is the length of the contract which is 8 years. Teixeira is a good comparison because they both played 6 full seasons before free agency. Teixeira has more power but a lesser average then Holliday and plays a position that is less physical then Holliday’s. So should he get $180m over 8 years? NO! Yes I’ve always advocated prudence or bias when gauging a player’s worth but Holliday’s time with Oakland as well as his altered swing midway through the season brings up red flags on his overall profile. For more comparable contracts, I would suggest that Alfonso Soriano’s $136m over 8 years is the better precedent then Teixeira’s. That contract would factor in the back end of his declining phase if structured right but that is unlikely as players generally prefer to build up their earnings on the back end of their contracts. With plenty of owners crying poverty, we could see Holliday still an unsigned free agent deep into January.

Today, we take a look at the top potential bargains in the free agent market.

Nick Johnson (Florida Marlins)

This is one of the most under-rated first baseman in MLB for sure. As a left handed bat and a Type B free agent, he is definitely one of the more attractive players on the market. He may have been to the disabled list more times then he would care to admit but the bottom line: any team getting Johnson would be getting at the very least, a .290 hitter with good OBP as well as power. He doesn’t look too expensive and should command around $5-7m per season making him a bargain by today’s salary standards. The Mets, Mariners, Braves, Indians, Red Sox and Giants all have needs for a first baseman or have the flexibility to move their current incumbent at first to third base and he should be at the forefront of their thinking.

JJ Putz (New York Mets)

The New York Mets declined Putz’s 2010 option of $9.1m opting to buyout for a $1m. With Frankie Rodriguez as their closer and Putz’s injury problems in the last couple of years that is no surprise. Whilst last season may have been a disaster following a so-so 2008 season, it is hard to forget the magnificent couple of years that preceded 2008 when he was absolutely dominant in the AL. Can he return to those heady days? Much depends on his health and should his velocity return to where it was in 2006, he could prove himself a bargain. He’s stated his preference for closing but the market for closers look in plentiful supply thus rendering the market weak with only a handful of teams looking for closers and the likes of Detroit and St Louis are not big spenders, the Braves figure to resign either Gonzalez or Soriano whilst the Phillies and Angels have closers in Lidge and Fuentes thus likely limiting dollars for Putz meaning any signing team will be taking an essentially low risk gamble in Putz.

Carl Pavano (Minnesota Twins)

After the disaster of New York when he was injured for practically the entire duration of his $40m 4 year he signed in the off-season of 2004, he looks to have bounced back nicely with the Indians and the Twins. He has the pitching smarts and if he can prove himself healthy once again, there is potential for plenty of improvements on his 2009 performance. Whilst his ERA stands at 5.10, his xFIP is 4.16 only confirming the strong impression he made on me midway through the season. However a note of caution has to be taken as he jumped from a total 145.2 innings in 4 years with the Yankees to a total of 206.1 innings in 2009 with the Indians and Twins. If a team can sign Pavano for similar to what he earned in 2009 ($1.5m with incentives), they’ve themselves a low risk bargain who can eat innings whilst giving his team every chance to win. If an NL team take the chance to sign him even at a higher rate or much higher incentives, there’s every chance he can replicate his 3.00 ERA or thereabouts season in 2004. For now, the Twins and the Indians are known suitors and that’s a good sign as both teams know his injury history and has had plenty of time to assess his strengths.

Brad Penny (San Francisco Giants)

The Boston Red Sox signed him primarily as insurance for their other starters and wounded up relying on him more then they envisioned with Dice K, Beckett, Wakefield, Buchholz and John Smoltz all missing playing time at various stages of the season. After pitching some serviceable starts allied with bad outings, the Red Sox cut Penny loose and he was promptly snapped up by the Giants where he almost predictably showed much improved production going 4-1 with a 2.59 ERA, light years away from his 5.61 ERA with the Red Sox. He’s a hard thrower and vastly experienced. He shouldn’t be too expensive either in the $5-6m range. However, there are questions surrounding his declining strikeout rate but at $5-6m for a year in the NL, he should more then prove his worth.

Mark DeRosa (St. Louis Cardinals)

This super utility player who can play several position with ease may be 35 yr old but what he offers besides versatility is professionalism and this often under-rated hitter could prove a bargain in the $5-6m range for limited years. He offers power, similar contact rate to Jason Bay whilst maintaining a higher OBP then Chone Figgins and should prove attractive to several teams wanting a maximum two year commitment and excellent clubhouse presence. His versatility is the most valuable quality and plenty of GMs will be offering De Rosa a chance to play for their team.

Adrian Beltre (Seattle Mariners)

The last time Beltre was eligible for free agency, he enjoyed a monster season with the Dodgers parlaying that success into a $68m contract. 5 years later, he’s eligible for free agency but is coming off an injury ravaged season. In 5 years, he’s hit 103 home runs playing in the run-stifling environment of Safeco Field. Should he find a new home more favourable to hitters, his new team could benefit from those 5 “barren” years with a barrage of home runs. He won’t be earning a similar contract to the one he signed 5 years ago. But a contract in the $27m and 3 years range is more then a reasonable contract for a player with excellent defensive skills and power. Though $9m per season is not exactly a bargain, Beltre would likely hit 25-30 homeruns when healthy and that is excellent production for the money considering Jason Bay is asking for $60m over 4 years!

Troy Glaus (St. Louis Cardinals)

After 2009 was practically a write off it’s hard to see a favourable market for this useful slugger. Almost by default, he qualifies for this list and a low base salary deal for one year with incentive could yield much more production for the money if healthy. That’s a big IF but any team in need of third base help and has a slot open for DH may consider Glaus ahead of other big name veteran bats like Matsui, Thome and Jermaine Dye.

Xavier Nady (New York Yankees)

Like Troy Glaus above, he endured the 2009 season on the disabled list. However unlike Glaus, he’s an asset in the field equally excelling in left field and at first base. Before 2009, he had been known as an excellent hitter of left handed pitching but showed improvements in 2008 to suggest he could become a bona fide full time outfielder. It’s hard to know where he will end up but all indications are he’ll likely play for a mid or small market team with Bay and Holliday the big prize of the left fielders. He’ll be hoping the losers of the Bay and Holliday sweepstake press the panic button and overpay. That may happen but it’s unlikely with all teams seemingly keeping a close eye on projected 2010 attendances and spending accordingly which leads to a likely salary in the $3-5m range and that’s a reasonable price.

Jose Contreras (Colorado Rockies)

Like so many AL pitchers, he has discovered the fountain of youth in the National League showing a 1.59 ERA, albeit in limited starts and relief appearances. As a wily veteran and coming off a season when he looked healthy, he could well prove a bargain for any NL team in the early stages of the season. I can’t see too many teams lining the block to offer Contreras a contract and that could mean a vastly reduced salary light years away from his Yankees and White Sox days. He might not pitch deep into games but he could be a cheaper alternative to any teams considering employing Pedro Martinez.

Brett Myers (Philadelphia Phillies)

This volatile but talented hurler suffered an injury then showed his toughness and demanding nature but striving to rehab himself in time for the playoffs and later calling Hamels out on his “quit” interview in the aftermath of World Series Game 3. He stood his ground rather then back down and in my books, that is a plus. As a pitcher, he’s been average overall mixing in good and bad seasons but showed his versatility as a closer as well. He throws hard and he’d benefit a team playing in a pitchers’ park with his flyball tendencies leading to more outs then home runs and in effect, a reduced ERA. His career ERA should keep the price down for Myers and he represent a bargain in the $4-5m range.

Ben Sheets (Milwaukee Brewers)

No doubts he would’ve been in the top free agent list had I written this article last year. Since then, he broke down with injuries before getting to sign a contract failing the Rangers’ medical after agreeing a two years deal. A year on, he still represents tremendous upsides and should be fully rehabbed. The problem now is arm strength. After a year out, his 2010 season should be limited in the 150 innings range or even less given Harden felt uncomfortable being asked to pitch 140 plus innings for the Cubs following back to back years of just 80 innings in 07 and 08. The Rangers figure to be major players for his services and for any big market team, he represent a bargain as a fifth starter with a low base salary and high incentives.

Jason Marquis (Colorado Rockies)

He’s a mystery for sure! Depending on price range he could easily find himself in the “dud” list but for now, I’m leaning towards the market awarding a contract in the $5-6m over 2-3 years range and that’s a reasonable contract for an average pitcher in today’s market (Oliver Perez got $12m per over 3 years and he was average and even Jon Garland got $9m last year). He won’t blow you away but he’ll eat innings and give any team a chance to win games in a reasonable park with his flyball and groundball tendencies. He’s been durable and he’ll likely start well before the normal second half fade to end the season. He’s a Mets fan so hoping he’ll give the Mets a hometown discount for the number 4 or 5 starter position!

In my next columns, I’ll be taking a trip to fantasyland and see what my beloved Mets can do before looking at the top potential duds in the free agency market.

Giant_Causeway