CALLING OMAR MINAYA!

By Giant_Causeway

If there's one baseball team I know inside out more then other sides, it's the New York Mets. Having spent time working in Queens back in 2000 just a stone's throw from the old Shea Stadium I have gone through emotions that only fans of Manchester City and Atletico Madrid can understand having to watch their bigger city rivals walk away with the plaudits and silverware. But I’m also a realist and had the Phillies as the divisional winners rather then Mets. Despite having played down expectations of the Mets, I still feel this was a bitterly disappointing season for the Mets fans for who deserved so much better.

We had to watch injuries to Jose Reyes, Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran, JJ Putz, John Maine, Oliver Perez and finally, Johan Santana reduced the team to simply a 70 win team. This provides a glimpse of life without the enigmatic Reyes and the Puerto Rican duo of Delgado and Beltran in the everyday line-up with David Wright struggling to carry the line-up without those big names with his body language and attitude at the plate suggesting his frustration at not hitting home runs at Citi Field and the team’s overall demise was simply too much to handle.

What is it with the Mets and injuries? Over the last decade, there have been so many players who have visited the DL for significant periods of time. Injuries are part and parcel of sports but as a Mets fan those issues feel magnified. Not to mention the likes of Fernando Martinez, Angel Pagan,

One of many injured this season JJ Putz

Jonathan Niese, Gary Sheffield and Alex Cora have all endured injury troubles this season. Before this season, we also saw Pedro Martinez and Billy Wagner endure lost years through injury. Is this simply bad luck or a small detail in the conditioning program?

But injuries should not detract from the flaws in this team. Even when healthy, they were always underdogs to the Phillies despite having spent $136m on their payroll ($150m includes Gary Sheffield’s $14m contract but the Mets were only on the hook for the minimum $400k salary with the Tigers paying the rest). They had questions after Johan Santana in the rotation and in left field where as it played out, the revolving door in left field was constant with no one hitter able to make that position his own. With the Sheffield, Delgado, Wagner, Schnieder, Putz, Anderson and Cora contracts coming off the books, that’s $51m at the minimum leaving the Mets with a payroll just under $99m.

In my opinion GM Minaya is left with two choices, follow the Yankees’ strategy in going all in when they added over $400m in contracts to add to their aging core and the fact that they also can take advantage of their protected first round draft pick in 2010 by going after top free agents without a loss of their top draft pick and gut the team’s farm system trading away young talent in a bid now OR trade away stars like Johan Santana and Frankie Rodriguez and rebuild from within. As it stands, the Mets have gaping holes at catcher, first and left field with also questions about second base. Not to mention there is nothing after Johan Santana with Perez and Maine’s inability to stay healthy and also pitch deep into games and Mike Pelfrey’s disappointing beginning to his MLB career. The bullpen remains fluid with Putz and Wagner long departed but still anchored by Frankie Rodriguez.

But with a new stadium to finance and the memory of dwindling attendances from 2009, there are also financial considerations that the team owners must consider. From a financial standpoint, any move is a gamble and with a competitive division with the Braves, Phillies and Marlins set to once again challenge for the NL East as well as the possibility of the Nationals set to improve after they had defined clearly their organisational infrastructure, the Mets have little choice but to attempt to put together a competitive roster. Trade away stars and running up the white flag will not tempt New Yorkers who love nothing more then winners. Go all in and attempt to run with the Braves, Phillies and the Marlins and they had better not fail. Tough choices for Minaya with neither enticing: Going all in would appease fans and help ticket sales but in a tough economy and a climate where the value of contracts continue to rise for elite stars, the thought of committing long years and top dollars for 30 somethings is a thing of the past unless you are the New York Yankees. Baseball is littered with bad contracts and the challenge for Minaya is to identify the free agents best suited to the team and within a reasonable framework contract wise.

So which players could Minaya go after? I had covered the free agent market early in November and had asserted it was a weak class of free agents with Holliday, Lackey and Bay headlining this year’s class. What’s striking is the lack of viable options at the catcher position and of all the glaring holes in the rosters we start with catching.

Catching

If recent rumours are anything to go by, Bengie Molina is Minaya’s first choice to fill the gap in the short term but his offensive shortcomings must be taken on board. The likes of a declining Ivan Rodriguez, Yorvit Torrealba (currently suing the Mets for backing out of a

Minaya's first choice catcher? Bengie Molina

contract a couple of years ago) and Rod Barajas are all equally unappealing free agent options. Thus the only move Minaya should make is either installing a platoon of Josh Thole and Omir Santos or turn to the trade market.

Of all the possibly attainable catchers, Ryan Doumit and Kelly Shoppach appeal the most. Yes, in the realms of fantasy Joe Mauer would be the top choice but unfortunately, the Twins are unlikely sellers. Of the pair, Doumit is the top choice by far as he can not only man catcher, he can play right field and first base whilst possessing a very useful bat for the position. With the Pirates having traded most of their top stars, a package of a top prospect and a couple of secondary prospects should be enough to sway a deal. The problem is which top prospect? That’s Minaya’s job! Here’s hoping the Pirates rate the likes of Jonathan Niese, Bobby Parnell or Fernando Martinez enough to make one or two of the trio the centrepiece in any deal.

1st base

Dan Murphy is the tentative choice to play first with top prospect Ike Davis a possible long shot should the Mets fail to upgrade from Murphy. There are a few options with the likes of Nick Johnson, Carlos Delgado and Mark DeRosa all offering veteran presence as well as useful bats on a short term deal whilst Davis is given another season to develop. One name I really like is Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers. At only 26 yrs, he is approaching his prime years and the Mets must prey on the Tigers’ financial vulnerability and offer a package of prospects plus a MLB ready pitcher.

With only the Mets and possibly the Red Sox in the market who can absorb Cabrera’s contract without batting an eye, it’s a race that is winnable if the Tigers are willing sellers. The Tigers may insist on any team taking Ordenez’s $18m contract for 2010 as part of the deal but that contract can also be moved if the Mets can entice another team into the deal with the promise of a split payment of the contract: The small price to pay for an unquestionably elite hitter despite doubts about his temperament and glove work.

2nd base

Current incumbent is Luis Castillo who actually enjoyed an excellent season with the bat. There’s only two teams with declared interest in Castillo and both have the money to absorb the remaining $12m over 2 years on Castillo’s contract. Should the Mets move him to the Dodgers, they could ask for Ivan DeJesus Jr who has a slick glove but unproven bat or simply ask for Mike Fontenot from the Cubs. Personally, I wouldn’t mind keeping Castillo as he should be productive for another season following his disastrous 2008 season when he apologised for the season and worked hard on conditioning. It does worry me that the Mets continue to be fixated with Orlando Hudson and unless he comes at a bargain price, no thanks!

Left field

At this moment in time, the Mets do not possess a left fielder having tried out a variety of players in the position to platoon with Gary Sheffield in 2009. Fernando Martinez was disappointing with the bat whilst Danny Murphy was moved to first base to cover the absence of Delgado. The Mets do not possess any in-house options unless Danny Murphy is moved back to left field to accommodate any new signings. A look at the free agent market yields the top two names in Jason Bay and Matt Holliday who are in their prime years whilst the rest of market are veteran bats but with limited defence. The problem is both names figure to command the attention of the Yankees and the Red Sox thus making both players to be more then likely overpaid.

Of the duo, Bay has worries defensively and may be a better fit for the AL then the NL. Holliday turned his season around from his early struggles with Oakland when it emerged Mark McGwuire tinkered with his swing. Co-incidence or just a quirk of baseball? Regardless, teams should be working within the framework of the Alfonso Soriano contract in terms of dollars rather then the Teixeira contract of $180m. However, with the likes of the Yankees and the Red Sox around, I wouldn’t bank on the Mets as serious players. They’ll make an offer like the Nationals and Angels last year for Teixeira but in the end, one of the big two should eclipse anything the Mets has to offer.

So where now for the Mets? Much depends on the type of bats they get in the catcher and 1st base position. If in the unlikely event, Minaya gets Doumit and Cabrera then they can go with simply a veteran or short term solution in left. But if Minaya gets Molina and plugs 1st base with a type B player like Johnson rather then an elite bat like Cabrera, the need for a bona fide left field bat becomes more pressing. The bottom line is there’s not much on the market in left field to tempt the Mets, free agency or trade wise. Carl Crawford would be an interesting addition but again, would the Rays trade Crawford?

Rotation

This is one area that is absolutely critical to the Mets’ chance of competing with the Phillies, Braves and the Marlins for NL East supremacy. After Johan Santana no Mets pitcher have stepped up. Personally, there are also worries regarding Santana. He looks to have problems putting away left-handed hitters with plenty of lefties able to take Santana to the full count driving up his pitch count. Whilst his statistics continue to be more then useful, he looks likely to regress then sustain his success. In his last 10 starts, 5 teams got to Santana hitting him easily. Whether injury played a part in that is debatable but the red flags I get from watching Santana just do not go away. It is very unlikely Santana will be traded as the Mets need him more then ever but the tantalising possibility of creating payroll flexibility whilst attaining top level prospects gives me Goosebumps! I hope I’m wrong and those red flags fade into view.

After Santana, Perez, Maine and Pelfrey must stay healthy whilst improving. Hard enough to achieve one never mind two! For me, the Mets have to follow the Yankees and Red Sox strategy in going all out in terms of quality and depth. The likes of Harden, Sheets and Bedard represents tremendous upsides but their injury histories are the types that get GMs sacked! If their asking price reflects their histories and are willing to take a base salary of $5-6m with high incentives they must surely be worth a gamble even for an injury hit club like the Mets? Why not sign them both?? Is that too much of a gamble? Definitely but the Mets have nothing to lose and ownership can absorb the cost of a one year gamble. If they come off, then the Mets are guaranteed high draft picks as compensation. If not, then they simply become another version of Wagner, highly talented hurlers who succumbed to the Mets’ injury curse!

Aroldis Chapman, Jose Contreras, Jason Marquis and John Lackey are other free agent options with Chapman more a draft signing as he needs time to gel into a different culture and prove he can indeed pitch in MLB. He’d likely command top dollars in the $40m over 5 years range with the Yankees and Red Sox both likely to bid for his services. Given the Mets do not spend

An intriguing short term option Jose Contreras

much in the draft relatively to other clubs (which could be why our farm system hasn’t produced anyone of note since David Wright) it’s unlikely they’ll be serious players for Chapman though his 100mph fastball from the left side is a tempting option, albeit in a long term but very expensive sense.

Contreras is an intriguing short term option as a proven innings eater and coming over from the AL. If he is available at a cheap price, he’d be an excellent choice for the first half of the season as he’s likely to fade down the stretch to the end of the season. He would test the aggressive line-ups in the Phillies and the Marlins with his off-speed pitches. Jason Marquis would provide a more expensive version of what Contreras could do but with more certainty. He’s useful and eats innings but the question is price. Looking at his 2009 performances and overall profile, I can’t help but think that $5-6m is the correct price for Marquis. But then again there’s reports of Joel Pineiro demanding $30m over 3 years! Better to wait until someone like Jon Garland can set the market to a more reasonable level.

Brett Myers is another interesting option as he’s spent his years with the Phillies. Jumping to the Mets may amount to betrayal of the Phillies fan base but when has that ever stopped baseball players or sports stars for that matter. He’s coming off an injury ravaged season and represents a reasonable but cheaper gamble then the likes of Bedard and Harden.

And finally, the best free agent pitcher of this year’s class, John Lackey. As the ace of the Angels staff, I find it surprising plenty of talent evaluators are suggesting Lackey is simply a no. 3 starter. His ERA is nothing special but very useful. Nowhere near sub 3.00 to be considered elite but he’s still an ace pitching to stacked AL line-ups for the last 8 years with success. Should he move to the NL his ERA should improve significantly possibly to a career low. Much depends on his health as he has visited the DL in the last two seasons but then again, that didn’t stop the Yankees penning a similar starter in AJ Burnett to a $90m deal over 5 years which is the starting point in negotiations according to reports. Unlike Bedard and Harden, Lackey is unlikely to consider a shorter term deal in the 3-4 year range. Personally, 5 years is too long a deal for ANY pitcher especially one at the 31 yr mark. But the Mets have a desperate need for a second starter alongside Johan and Lackey’s toughness and personality could be just what the doctor ordered for the seemingly soft New York Mets. The fact he has also mentored the likes of Jered Weaver, Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders with the Angels could help the Mets’ trio of Perez, Pelfrey and Maine.

On the trade front, Halladay, Josh Beckett and Felix Hernandez are all available at the right price but the Mets will not have the chips to deal for either for them without bankrupting a thin farm system. Though Halladay and Beckett are attainable, both would be costly in terms of prospects with the Bluejays and Red Sox both likely to play hardball over their aces who are only under control for one more year meaning a scenario where the Mets would give up 4-5 prospects for a one year rental.

Personally, I would sign 3-4 pitchers if they were amenable to our terms rather then the Yankees or market terms. I would expect the market to show decline in terms of contract dollars and the Mets should take advantage of that to rebuild their rotation with two “sure thing” and a couple of gamble from Harden, Sheets, Bedard and Myers whilst retaining insurances in Perez, Pelfrey and Maine.

Bullpen

The Mets bade farewell to JJ Putz by buying out his option meaning there is no bona fide setup man for K-Rod. Like Santana, I have concerns about Frankie Rodriguez’s effectiveness for this season and beyond. At times, there were plenty of red flags of which, the most obvious of all, his ERA was significantly the worse of his career despite pitching his home games in the pitcher friendly park of Citi Field. It is not just declining peripherals in his statistics (K/9, BB, BB/9, HR) as well as declining velocity, the biggest red flag of all is his delivery. Earlier in the season, I had brought up the same issue of whether the violent delivery of Frankie Rodriguez would lead to a similar decline we are seeing from

An interesting in-house option John Maine

Dontrelle Willis, another comparable pitcher with similar delivery. For me, all the work the rotation and line-up could be all for nothing unless the Mets sign a setup man with closing experience. Another option could be trade K-Rod but with plenty of closers available at likely bargain prices relative to K-Rod’s salary, teams will look elsewhere unless it’s a bad contract swap.

The problem in this is nothing is guaranteed when it comes to relief pitching. Bullpen performance will always fluctuate year to year and like the Red Sox last year, they must stack the bullpen with experience and depth. Much easier said then done. Free agency is the only option for the Mets in this area unless they opt to stack the rotation and move the rotation insurance into the bullpen alongside Rodriguez, Green and Feliciano.

Plenty of gambles will be taken all over MLB on veterans, non-roster invitees to spring training and there is one option the Mets should strongly consider and that is resigning JJ Putz. If the Mets are satisfied his injury troubles are over, he can return to his dominant 2006 and 2007 seasons. Other elite options are Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano but both will look for closer jobs and there is also a question of whether the Mets are willing to pay $5-6m for an elite setup man.

One interesting in-house option is current no. 4 starter, John Maine. He’s not been able to stay healthy but when he has, he still hasn’t proven his ability to go deep into game no matter if he’s pitching well. For me, given his injury troubles, surely a setup role with a view to succeeding K-Rod in 2012 should be under consideration?

ALL IN! Over to you now Omar! Thank me later! Seriously, plenty of bargains to be found and trading options, I’ll be disappointed if the Mets choose to stand still and simply add a couple of Type B players and bargains rather then go all in.

LET’S GO METS!