Free Agency Primer - Part Four

By Giant_Causeway

We move on to the final article in the series when we examine the top potential free agents that should be wearing a 'buyer beware' sign!

Meanwhile in news around the majors, we have to say Joe Mauer and Albert Pujols are worthy choices for the MVP as well as Zack Greinke for the AL Cy Young which brings us to the NL choice in Tim Lincecum. In just three years at MLB level, he has two Cy Youngs. Is he that damn good?! Is he the best pitcher in baseball bar none? No and no!! Should Lincecum be higher paid then CC Sabathia? With Lincecum now eligible for salary arbitration, there’s rumblings he could ask for a salary that would make him the best paid pitcher in the game. His argument, he has two Cy Youngs in just three years. But he’s pitching in the NL league where the list of pitchers who has achieved a sub 4.00 ERA sits uncomfortably with what I’ve seen in 2009.

Yes the numbers do not lie but contrast that with the AL where only less then half the NL’s figure of sub 4.00 ERA achieved exactly that. The AL is so much the tougher league by far and it’s no accident that pitchers jumping to the NL achieve better numbers whilst jumping to the AL is generally not good for your career! Take a look at the top ERA leaders in the AL and contrast that with the NL. It’s no accident the AL has also dominated the All Star games this decade. Why? They have the better pitching. The likes of Randy Wells, Joel Pinero, Bronson Arroyo, Kevin Correia, and Ross Ohlendorf all possess ERA under 4 whilst Jon Garland has an ERA of 4.01! All have lower ERAs then the likes of Andy Pettitte, AJ Burnett and James Shields but yet, if you asked baseball GMs which pitchers they would rather have, it’s odds on that 90% of GMs would choose all three AL pitchers over the NL pitchers.

Contrast Brad Penny and John Smoltz’s AL and NL numbers in 2009 and there’s a significant difference. No one begrudges Lincecum’s entitlement to a MLB-high salary (for pitchers) but the arbitration panel must also weigh the arguments from both sides and ask themselves a simple question, would Lincecum manage a similar level of production in terms of strikeouts, innings, ERA and a W-L record that Greinke managed with the Royals? From what we’ve seen, the answer is an empathetic NO!

Before we move on to the top potential albatrosses, a trio of omissions from the top bargain list.

Orlando Hudson (Los Angeles Dodgers)

After the Diamondbacks offered him salary arbitration in the fall of 2008, he rejected it hoping to grab a multiyear contract earning $6-7m per. But then the economy went south and with it, teams began to place a MLB wide emphasis on the value of draft picks declining to sign Hudson at the expense of a first round draft pick. His value dropped to just $3.4m for the 2009 from a career high of $6.25m in 2008. He started on fire proving an excellent bargain before he inexplicably slumped in September which cost him his starting job. His numbers are still good but the lack of interest last season and with the Dodgers likely set to offer Hudson salary arbitration, he’ll cost any signing team who doesn’t possess a top 15 pick in next year’s draft meaning he should once again be a bargain as lower market teams offer a similar salary to 2009. But even on a similar one year deal at $3-4m per, that’s still not a bad way to fill your second base needs. Good defence, good leadership and a bat that should hit around the .300 mark. There’s a question of his slump towards the end of last season which could portend to the start of a steep decline. In any case, at the right price he’ll provide a short term solution to plenty of teams.

Orlando Cabrera (Minnesota Twins)

The Twins have already traded for JJ Hardy and asked Cabrera whether he would have interest in moving to second base. At 35 yr old he represents a risk for any team considering a multiyear deal but he only earned $4m in 2009 and figure again to take a lesser salary. He’s still defensively sound but not the defender he once was. He provides leadership and a solid bat for the position. Would be interesting for teams in need of a shortstop at a reasonable contract given fellow shortstop Marco Scutaro’s request for a three years deal.

Noel Arguelles (Free Agent)

His fellow Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman may be generating the buzz amongst baseball GMs but at a likely high price, he’s no bargain. In fact Chapman should be on the list below! Despite a 100 mph fastball, nothing is a given. Stephen Strasburg may be impressive in his short minor league career but can anyone honestly say he’s worth the record draft bonus the Nationals gave to him? Only time will prove that. In fact, that is the equivalent of Manchester United’s Alex Ferguson signing Ronaldo for £12m, Nani for £12m, Anderson for £16m and Tosic for a reported similar sum and ultimately only Ronaldo has proved well worth the £12m he was signed for as an 18 yr old. Ultimately, Chapman and Strasburg represents gambles rather then any measure of certainty.

But teams have an alternative in Arguelles, the 19 yr old left-handed pitcher who defected with the Red Sox’s Jose Iglesias last year. At 6ft 3” and 200lb he has the frame to make an impact in MLB. Scouting reports suggest his curveball and changeup are potentially above average. So what is that potential worth? $10m over 4 years?? That’s a ballpark estimate and much more palatable then Chapman who may have the 100 mph fastball and high 80s slider but has command concerns as well as issues regarding his maturity. What this amounts to is an equivalent to a high draft pick and with a palatable price; Arguelles could generate more interest then his fellow defector.

(2009 team or last known team in parentheses)

Russell Branyan (Seattle Mariners)

He’s coming off an excellent career year having finally been granted the regular playing time that had eluded him throughout his career. He’ll be looking for a big payday but any teams considering offering a big multiyear contract should look to the lesson the Angels are learning with Gary Matthews Jr. who turned a single career year into a $50m 5 year deal from the Angels. I’m not suggesting he will flop in the same vein as Matthews Jr. did with the Angels but a single year is no sample size for the money and teams really should limit the years to a maximum of one year with a club option for another.

Eric Gagne (Milwaukee Brewers)

One of the poster boys for the steroids era when he set the single consecutive saves record and flashed a fastball clocked in the high 90s. Since the end of his Dodgers contract, he has struggled with the Red Sox, Rangers and the Brewers with all teams cutting him midway through his contract. He’s not announced his retirement as far as I know but as with pitching, any desperate team will really be scraping the bottom of the barrel if they strongly consider him even with a seemingly impressive workout. Teams may sign him to a minor league deal in the hope he can resurrect his glory years with the Dodgers but no chance and better to place a young prospect in the pen then give Gagne another chance.

Jermaine Dye (Chicago White Sox)

The White Sox declined Dye’s 2010 option at $12m preferring to trigger the buyout option. They didn’t decline this option for baseball reasons but monetary reasons having landed Alex Rios and Jake Peavy during the 2009 season as well as adding the likely $5m salary of Mark Teahan. Jim Thome and his large contract may have departed as well as Contreras but the bottom line for the White Sox: the numbers do not add up. Dye has expressed his willingness to return at the reduced salary and that is a possibility in a DH capacity given his declining defensive skills. 

His 2010 option of $12m is a much higher salary to many players given the year he experienced in 2009 and he should logically get, at the least a one year deal of $9m using Bobby Abreu as a comparable yardstick with his contact rate offset by his power numbers. Yes his power numbers of 27 HR may offset his .250 average but he’s not getting any younger. However, whilst he does have legitimate power, teams will be concerned by the fact he had plied his trade in a hitters’ haven (Milton Bradley!) as well as having to give up a high draft pick if the White Sox decides to offer salary arbitration. However that is not a given as Dye would only lose a maximum of 12.5% off his salary should he lose his case meaning the team, if they include the buyout they made are practically signing Dye to his $12m option!  If teams play the patient game, Dye could find his market value reduced to as low as $3-4m per as clubs take into consideration a possible limited role as a DH. Who will blink first? Dye or a desperate GM?

Ivan Rodriguez (Texas Rangers)

He’s a definite Hall of Famer having accumulated impressive catching titles and batting statistics over the course of his career but his decline has also come at a time when catchers traditionally start to decline. At the age of 37 yr old, he’s unlikely to recapture the glory days of the late 90s and early 00s. He has experience for sure but his catching skills have also eroded with time making him a risky proposition for any team. Would I sign him to the minimum as a backup catcher? Yes but will his ego allow that kind of “demotion” of his talents? For me, only the minimum salary will do despite his past achievements.

Marco Scutaro (Toronto Bluejays)

Like Branyan at the top of the list, Scutaro seems a late bloomer in the game and after a career year in 2009, there are reports of Scutaro looking for a three years deal. Any team considering that kind of length must take a long hard look. Yes he was impressive in the leadoff spot for the Bluejays but over the course of his career, there doesn’t appear more scope for improvements. Could he further improve his production? Of course but the odds on that occurring at the age of 34 are low. His standard batting line is good but the eye-catcher is his OBP meaning his walk rate has gone up significantly. His current production of 2009 shouldn’t parlay into a salary higher then $4.5m based on his current salary of just $1.1m and current precedents. Even a three years deal may not seem much at $4.5m per but teams are consciously looking at every part of their rosters in the next few years in a bid to save money. For me, Scutaro’s career year has yet to be proven and teams will have to pay to find out whether those numbers are simply an aberration or the new norm with the shortstop. With Orlando Cabrera on the market with both offering similar qualities though Scutaro has seemingly better command of his strike-zone, Scutaro is only on this list in the event someone comes with a three years offer!

Justin Duchscherer (Oakland Athletics)

He’s coming off an injury ravaged season and also endured depression issues. If he’s healthy and that’s a big IF, he’ll help any team in a positive way whether it’s in the rotation or the bullpen. On what he may earn this season, he really should be in the top bargain list and he shouldn’t cost too much but this looks to be a transitional season for him coming back from physical and mental troubles and any team taking a chance on him will hope he can overcome his physical and mental maladies.

Joel Pineiro (St. Louis Cardinals)

This is a classic case of buyer beware. He’s coming off an excellent season in which he went 15-12 whilst maintaining an acceptable 3.49 ERA. Like so many others before him, Jeff Weaver, Todd Wellemeyer and Kyle Lohse amongst others, one factor is either the influence of Tony LaRussa or pitching coach Dave Duncan. His request for a $30m over 3 year is understandable but any team strongly considering giving a deal in that range is a lost cause (yes, it’s worrying the Mets are linked with Pineiro!). In fact, he is one pitcher I am absolutely confident should regress in 2010!

Placido Polanco (Detroit Tigers)

This may seem a strange choice given he is coming off a good season at the second base position. But at the age of 34, any team considering a shorter version of the Luis Castillo contract really needs shooting! I saw enough from him in 2009 that suggest he is worthy of a single year deal but there are a couple of red flags. He played a career high number of games but there were a few plate appearances where I felt he “guessed” at a couple of fastballs meaning his hands are slower to catch up to fastballs and like Big Papi, started to swing earlier. Next season, I expect his strikeout rate to jump significantly and his overall numbers to decline slightly. He is also a Type A player meaning, if the Tigers offered salary arbitration, any signing team must really need Polanco to justify losing a high draft pick for a 34 yr old 2nd baseman.

Bengie Molina (San Francisco Giants)

There’s been reports of Molina demanding a two year deal at a similar salary he earned in 2009. Coupled with his age and likely decline of his bat and catching skills, he’s not an attractive proposition for teams in need of catching. But such is the state at the catching position that none of the free agents represent any degree of attractiveness. The Giants wouldn’t mind Molina back for a season whilst top young prospect Buster Posey is given more time in the minors but unfortunately for me, I’m hearing the Mets want Molina! Put this way, if the Mets sign Molina at the expense of a top draft pick whilst offering a two years deal, I will be tearing my hair out in frustration!! Any teams needing catchers should look to trade with the Rangers, Angels, Indians and the Pirates.

That concludes this year’s look at the free agency market. I’ll be back throughout the winter offering coverage of the “hot stove” as well as providing coverage of the top Mets prospects before the countdown to the 2010 season. I’d like to hear from fans of MLB teams and what signings and trades your team should make.

Giant_Causeway