Evaluating Team Profiles - Part One

By Giant_Causeway

As we approach the end of the year, hopefully the series of articles written this year have given yourselves an idea of the kind of basic research that is required to fully understand the baseball world and in the process, provide yourselves with the tools and knowledge to make the correct analysis and with a bit of luck, the correct betting strategy. In this final research piece for the year, I will use a team close to my heart as an example and take a look at the harsh reality the New York Mets face and the weakness of their farm system and how that affects the Mets’ quest for a 2010 World Series title. In the previous article “Calling Omar Minaya” I had indulged in a little daydream as a fan but come down to earth with a closer look at the Mets from an analyst’s viewpoint.

In an ideal world, the scenario I had written in mid November regarding the New York Mets would play out and give the Mets every chance of competing for a World Series but the harsh reality is that the Mets are unlikely to go all in meaning the other viable option that may also be an unpalatable option to fans is a total rebuild. In fact, that is my preferred option. Why? We could add complementary Type B players like Marquis, Johnson or even a Type A like Holliday but the fact remains, even with the game’s second highest payroll, it wasn’t enough for even third spot in the NL East!

The Mets’ have spent plenty of money on big ticket free agents in Pedro Martinez, Billy Wagner, K-Rod, Carlos Beltran and extensions for Johan Santana and Oliver Perez but they are no closer to a World Series title then in 2005 when Carlos Beltran and Pedro Martinez heralded the dawn of the Omar Minaya era signing via free agency. There is just something about the Mets that doesn’t quite click. From the injuries to the culture and direction of club leadership, nothing seems to instil confidence in the Amazin’s fans. We may possess players like Reyes, Wright, Santana, Rodriguez, and Beltran but even when healthy, they couldn’t get it

Dissapointing results to date Jerry Manuel

done in 2007 or 2008. For me, there’s something inherently wrong with the Mets and that is widespread throughout the organisation. They’ve endured injuries trouble for years with Wagner undergoing TJ surgery last year and the numerous trips to the DL by the current crop of Mets and also had undergone frequent managerial changes since the Bobby Valentine years with Art Howe, Willie Randolph and currently Jerry Manuel all failing to match the achievements of the outspoken but hugely entertaining Bobby Valentine.

In 2009 6 of the 7 New York Mets’ farm teams posted losing season in addition to the New York Mets themselves. That’s a damning indictment on the level of quality in both the players and coaching the Mets seem to tolerate and the losing culture that appears to permeate the club at all levels. There was already issues of certain players in the past not executing basics such as running the bases with Fernando Martinez, Lastings Milledge and Jose Reyes all coming under high profile scrutiny for their casual attitudes to running out any balls in play. There were questions regarding leadership concerning veterans in Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran, not to mention the front office itself who endured the numerous issues surrounding the departed Tony Bernazard, a close friend of Minaya who was the Mets’ “VP for Player Development”.

In addition to nepotism, injuries and the club culture there is also the dubious stewardship of Jeff Wilpon who is the CEO and son of owner, Fred Wilpon who seems averse to spending on youth development which is the lifeblood of any major league club. Yes prospects are just that, prospects but they have the ability to save teams millions of dollars in expensive free agent signings as well as enable a team to fully enjoy the rise to stardom of top prospects. But prospects still cost money. In June 2009, the Mets spent just $3.1m on 35 draft picks. Contrast that with the Nationals and other teams who picked in the top 5. Rick Porcello of the Tigers is a classic case for “investing” in the future.

Back in 2007 he dropped to 27th over signability concerns with the Tigers barely believing their luck signing Porcello for $7.29m with a $3.5m signing bonus. He had been projected as a top 3 pick on talent alone. Where were the Mets? Nowhere as they had lost their draft pick signing yet another free agent! Is he worth that kind of money? No one is especially for a prospect but the Mets, even if they did have a first round pick would most certainly had look elsewhere rather then sign Porcello. Yes, hindsight is a wonderful thing but given the way their farm system and scouting and development and recruitment policy have failed over the years, surely it’s time for a change? Spending the $7.29m on Porcello would’ve saved the Mets the $90m+ they would need to spend on John Lackey or a Doc Halladay extension to seriously propel the club to competitive status.

In any case, the Mets’ coaching infrastructure and judgements of players may well have not achieved the same development in Porcello the Tigers achieved. For example, their list of targets this off-season reportedly includes Joel Pineiro and Bengie Molina. Well, there are certainly better options out there for sure and given the Braves and

Linked to the Mets Joel Pineiro

Phillies all possess dangerous left-handed power bats, I find it strange that there are no single report of the Mets being linked with Erik Bedard who should earn a comparable salary to the likes of Rich Harden and Ben Sheets who are all comparable low risk (at the right salary) high reward pitchers but likely to be signed to manageable one year deal with low base salary and high incentives. In comparison to the Red Sox who may well sign both Lackey and Rich Harden, the Mets are going after Type B players which will only delay the Mets’ decline until something is done to overhaul the organisation and their philosophy.

The Mets’ finances are also a mystery with the Wilpons the victim of infamous fraudster, Bernie Madoff. How much they lost or even gained from their dealings with Madoff is unknown but as already stated, they still outspent the Phillies, Dodgers, Rockies and the Cardinals who all reached the post-season. Conflicting media reports suggest the Mets may have lost up to $800m but some cites the Mets actually have a profit. Regardless of finances, the fact is their decision making hasn’t been good enough over the years.

In fact Billy Wagner’s August trade to the Red Sox was just simply another puzzling decision from a fan perspective. We would’ve got high draft pick compensation as Wagner is the type of player who would choose closing for 30% less then he earned in 2009 over guaranteed money that would match his 2009 salary in a setup role. He did have some significant salary left to be paid but the trade off was the draft pick. Yes there is every chance he may accept the Red Sox’s offer of salary arbitration but his profile suggests otherwise. He is fiercely competitive and he is also chasing the all time record for saves by a left-hander currently held by Mets’ legend, John Franco. As it turned out his recent signing for the Braves has borne that theory out. The presence of Frankie Rodriguez would’ve served as a deterrent to Wagner. In any case, he is also a tradable commodity especially on a single year deal and even if the Mets had to eat some of his salary, they should also get similarly to high draft pick talent in return in which case, they would likely be paying $2-3m for that talent (which would be the same as the cost of signing a top draft pick) that would also be more advanced in terms of development.

Regular readers will know I always advocate prudence over the type of spending the Yankees like to do but even though fans are calling for more spending, is that the right direction for the New York Mets? If they go after top free agents safe in the knowledge they have their number one pick place in the top 15 next year, they must follow through or the vicious cycle of a mini boom and bust will continue. They can either go all in like Real Madrid and the New York Yankees did or follow Liverpool in adding complementary Type B players like Molina, Pineiro, Marquis et al and we all know that Liverpool are no closer to the title after 20 long years. But the lessons of the past must be learned. Billy Wagner and Pedro Martinez are examples in limiting the years whilst the Mets also suffer from overpaying their free agents. Oliver Perez and Frankie Rodriguez both signed similar deals last winter and both look to be disappointments in 2010 and beyond if their current profiles and trends are anything to go by.

Bottom line, we get free agents at their peak demanding long contracts and big bucks and most likely beginning the downward spiral of their career thus wasting millions of dollars when equally aggressive investment in the farm system could already have yielded more affordable stars and World Series titles. The Mets in essence buy high and sell low and no organisation can operate effectively with that kind of MO unless you are the Yankees with a $200m payroll but even the Yankees have the better farm system with plenty of depth in their pitching and top position prospects like Jesus Montero and Austin Jackson. The top business model for the Mets has to be the Red Sox and whilst we may have developed Reyes and Wright, they have Buchholz, Lester, Papelbon, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Youkilis and top prospects in their system who are much closer to the majors then the Mets’ prospects whilst maintaining a lower payroll!

So where now for the Mets? In the previous article, visions of going all in may seem attractive to fans but very much unlikely. The other realistic option was a complete rebuild. But 2010 figures to be a make or break season for Omar Minaya. He really needs to convince ownership ahead of his own self-interest that drastic action is needed to overhaul the entire culture of injuries, bad decisions making and organisational philosophy. Just look at the number of ex-Mets thriving in the majors after being dumped via trade or free agency. Heath Bell, Matt Lindstrom, Dan Wheeler would’ve formed a potent front three in the bullpen as well as Darren Oliver of the Angels. Jason Bay was a top prospect before being traded. Marco Scutaro of the Bluejays is yet another ex-Met thriving north of the border and likely to sign for the Red Sox. Ty Wigginton, Kaz Matsui, Jeff Keppinger, Mike Cameron, Xavier Nady, Carlos Gomez, Brian Bannister and countless others all thrived away from New York. Just the pressure of New York or are the New York Mets the sole factor?

Back in the summer, I had suggested the Mets should think strongly about trading their star players and nothing has changed to alter that view. The likes of Santana and Rodriguez who both earn big money look to be regressing and Oliver Perez proved a massive disappointment after resigning. The core of their line-up in Wright, Beltran and Reyes are on or will soon be on big money in the $15m average range. We could keep the core and continue to add complementary pieces but in 2-3 years time, Wright, Beltran, Santana and Reyes could all cost the Mets close to $65m which represents a huge chunk of any teams’ payroll considering there’s 25 roster spots to fill!

I’ve advocated for a long time that prudent management like the As, the Red Sox and the Twins is better then going all in and setting back a team’s evolution for years and the Mets has sadly borne that theory out. Of course I want the Mets to win but at what cost? They could continue to throw money at the team but they already have the game’s second highest payroll and that hasn’t worked. I’m pragmatic enough to realise that baseball like any other sports is essentially a business where the bottom line is profit. But there are examples of teams who can successfully operate with a profit without the need to spend like the Yankees.

To undergo a complete rebuild, they must give serious thoughts to trading Wright and Reyes for big packages of premium prospects as well as shedding payroll whilst they rebuild. But the problem is ownership and management has never been strong enough to withstand the pressure from the fans or the

A possible rising star for the Mets Ike Davis

media preferring to paper over the cracks then to build a solid foundation. Their farm system is virtually devoid of any bona fide premium prospects who are close to MLB ready with the likes of Martinez, Niese and Kunz all likely to be average major league players then impact players. Rising star Ike Davis is likely to need another season in the minors.

Fixing the Mets must start from top to bottom from the CEO Jeff Wilpon to the players themselves. Witness the Rangers. Having appointed pitching legend Nolan Ryan as their honorary president, he has mandated a new pitching philosophy in less then a year and the changes are startling. Thus the focus is all on the farm system which either has to produce players or force the team to enter a vicious cycle of signing free agents who will almost certainly be overpaid in 99% of cases and the loss of high draft pick compensation which is what the Mets are currently experiencing in replacing those big names. The 2009 season exposed the farm system as barren at the top tier when injuries decimated the Mets.

Jonathan Niese and Fernando Martinez were the top pitching and position prospects who were called up but both did not seize their chances and in any case, succumbed to the Mets’ injury curse. Outside of Niese and Martinez there weren’t much in the system to provide help. The likes of Wilmer Flores, Jefrey Marte, Francisco Pena and Jenrry Meija are all in their teens and still have plenty to learn.

There’s only one way for the New York Mets to win the World Series next year and that is by spending but just adding a big bat in Matt Holliday wouldn’t be enough. The Phillies and Braves would still have a better chance of finishing the season above the Mets. The Braves have the pitching with surplus in the rotation and the recent signings of Wagner and Saito as their new one two punch and if they somehow added a big right handed bat to support Jones and McCann they are live dark horses to win it all never mind the NL East. They must plug the rotation with Type A quality pitching rather then rely on Pineiro whilst hoping K-Rod can arrest his progressive decline with a return to his heyday with the Angels. Left field, catcher, first base, second base, well you get the gist of it. Reality check: the Mets have far too many holes to fill unless the farm system starts producing and they should be priced up similarly to the likes of the Rangers and the Diamondbacks.

This article is a prime example of the type of research I undertake every single year with EVERY team! That might sound daunting but the amount of news, knowledge all adds up over the years and the course of the current season and provide you with a general picture of a team’s overall health and scope for improvement. Every angle, every possible scenario is played out. Is it overkill? Will this knowledge help you win next season? Information and facts are subjective to differing analysis. It’s how betting markets are formed. Whilst pitching may remain king in the final analysis, there are so many other factors to consider when making a decision and just one little titbit of knowledge may be enough to sway you to the opposite side.

In the Mets’ case, the bookies may overvalue their chances hence creating value on the underdogs from the get go. Next season, I’m still in the process of thinking the Yankees will likely be even more over-valued due to their World Series triumph and with Rivera turning 40 and the core of Jeter, Posada and Pettitte another year older, they could be vulnerable to regression as dramatic as the 2007 Milan side who flopped spectacularly in 2008, a year after defeating Liverpool for the Champions League. Similar research helped pick out the Cardinals and Twins as divisional winners but obviously my opinion of the Diamondbacks and the New York Yankees were wrong! Having said that, we digest the current season every team enjoyed or endured and gauge their off-season moves and come March 2010 we make an informed decision on whether to bet or not to bet!

One factor in handicapping teams and baseball in general is knowing the teams’ farm system and the importance of a healthy system. In part two, we explore the farm system in more details using the Mets’ farm system as an example and evaluate whether they can help the Mets in 2010. We will also have a cursory look at how the Mets can improve the shortfall in top young talent.

Giant_Causeway