The Hot Stove

By Giant_Causeway

Some things in life are certainties: sex, death and taxes. And now you can add silly baseball contracts to that list! I had thought there would be far more trades then envisaged but instead it’s been a reversal of sorts with more free agent signings then I thought! With the Winter Meetings now behind us, there’s only been three notable trades of note with the Yankees, Tigers and Diamondbacks all consummating a “three way” trade with the Yankees the biggest winner by far snagging Curtis Granderson whilst giving up just Ian Kennedy, Phil Coke and Austin Jackson who are all expendable talent and this trade has to rate an absolute steal for the World Series champions.

As for the losers? There’s a consensus that the Diamondbacks are the biggest loser with Ian Kennedy unconvincing as a major league pitcher and Edwin Jackson likely to command a huge raise in salary arbitration whilst possibly regressing and that is absolutely spot on. On the face of it, Arizona has not a bad acquisition in Jackson but the problem is whom they gave up. They gave up Max Scherzer, a very talented pitcher who would’ve been much cheaper and is already major league ready and an interesting pitching prospect in Daniel Schlereth. If they had kept somehow kept Scherzer and dealt parts of their under-performing offence like Stephen

Unconvincing as a major league pitcher Ian Kennedy

Drew or dealt multiple prospects, they would’ve had the best rotation in the NL West, even better then the Giants with a front four of Haren, Webb, Jackson and Scherzer! But instead they appear to swop a cheap and very talented hurler for a much more expensive pitcher whilst giving up an excellent relief prospect! Ouch!

The other trades of note were the Braves trading Soriano to the Rays after he accepted salary arbitration and the Rangers trading Kevin Millwood to the Orioles. Both were not done for baseball reasons but purely for financial reasons. The problem with the Braves were the two signings that preceded their 2009 closer accepting salary arbitration when they signed Wagner and Saito to replace Soriano and Gonzalez. Whilst they did move quick after deciding their 2009 one two punch were unlikely to accept salary arbitration, surely they would’ve been better off keeping Soriano? Yes they may have payroll constraints but that would surely have been resolved by trading either Lowe or Vazquez who are currently two members of a six man rotation at this moment in time.

The Kevin Millwood trade was a strange one at first until they signed Rich Harden to a $7.5m deal thus saving themselves a couple of millions! Yes Rich Harden is a much better pitcher then Millwood at their best but there’s one big caveat: health! Harden hasn’t proven himself healthy in his MLB career and surely a lower base salary with more incentives would’ve been a better way to protect the club from the event Harden breaks down again? In any case, Harden in 2009 showed flyball tendencies and that’s a bad sign considering he will be pitching half his games at the Rangers’ ballpark that greatly favours hitters.

Moving on to free agents, there have only been a handful of free agents signed and already we have seen bad contracts handed out! Which is worse?? The Nationals handing out a $6m 2 year deal to Ivan Rodriguez in the twilight of his career or the Astros handing out a $15m 3 year deal to Brandon Lyon of the Tigers??! But the consequences of those contracts could have far reaching implications for the market itself in other positions. Other catchers like Brian Schnieder and Jason Kendall has already signed 2 years deal with Kendall actually matching Rodriguez’s contract. The Rockies moved to tie up Chris Lanetta to a three year deal worth almost the $3m per that Rodriguez and Kendall receives. That only highlights the dearth of catching talent on the market with the Red Sox thought to move Mike Lowell and pay $9m of his $12m option for 2010 in exchange for Max Ramirez who projects as a power hitter though he faces questions regarding his

Cashing in with a $3m deal with the White Sox JJ Putz

suitability and competence at the catching position. What of the Mets who do not possess a full time catcher? They’re continuing to be linked with Molina and are likely to overpay by a long way for Molina to the tune of $12m over 2 years! Ouch.. That would be yet another big mistake amongst others for the New York Mets.

LaTroy Hawkins’ contract with the Brewers has set the market for setup men with JJ Putz cashing in with a $3m deal with the White Sox 2 days later! In fact, the Braves may have been very shrewd in moving early for Billy Wagner though allied with Rafael Soriano’s acceptance of a $7.5m contract, the duo could’ve set the market for closers to a lower level then in previous years. What of Randy Wolf, Rich Harden and Tim Hudson? We can see Type B pitchers like Joel Pineiro, Jon Garland and Jason Marquis all referring to Randy Wolf’s and Tim Hudson’s contract the Brewers and Braves handed out and asking for $9-12m per over 3 years! Erik Bedard and Ben Sheets who are similar to Harden in that they are all potentially aces of any staff but have had trouble health wise could both ask for $7.5m to match the contract Harden got.

Of the remainder position players, only Pedro Feliz and Alex Cora are notable signees with the Astros paying up to $4.5m for Feliz’s services and the Mets once again overpaying by awarding $2m to a part time player. The Yankees’ trade for Granderson figures to have a ripple effect on the left field market with Matt Holliday, Jason Bay and Johnny Damon all unlikely to have the assistance of the Yankees in driving up their price. But there’s still three big market teams who all need a left fielder and you never know! All it takes is one desperate GM! Witness the bad contracts of Lyon and Rodriguez! It’s one of those things when you have to shake your head to see whether you read or heard it right! If Molina manages to convince the Mets to sign him to a $12m 2 year deal then that may just trump them all in the bad contract stakes!

At this stage of the year, I wouldn’t expect John Lackey, Jason Bay and Matt Holliday to accept any contract as they look to play the waiting game and hope that Scott Boras’ theory of “one dumb owner” bears fruit. GMs must be prepared to look for alternatives if their targets become more expensive then their valuation of them. For sure, there will be bargains out there. Finding those bargains is an art form. The list of non-tendered players provides that as well as the factor of time. On that list Garrett Atkins is an intriguing option at either first or third and could’ve been had for the same price as Pedro Feliz! For players, they must hope that demand for pitching in particular and the market itself will continue to drive their value but it is likely only pitchers and catchers will experience an upswing in value as demand outstrips supply. Position players like Johnny Damon will be affected by recent precedents as he is comparable to Bobby Abreu and the Yankees has wisely seen that refusing to offer more then the Angels offered to Abreu.

At this time of the year, I’m still gathering data and researching the top prospects for the 2010 season as well as finishing team profiles and I’ll be back with more research examples when I cover the New York Mets’ farm system. Have a great Xmas and a Happy New Year!

Giant_Causeway