Evaluating Team Profiles - Part Two

By Giant_Causeway

In the last article we examined the New York Mets and their major flaws as they approach the end of the year with no measure of certainty as regards to their free agent targets and strategic direction. One thing about Baseball and to a lesser extent, American sports in general is the depth of the farm system. The college and high school system in the States is much more advanced in terms of infrastructure than any other country in the world. No other country in the world can boast similarly professional set-up at academic level. No other country can consistently churn out professional sports athletes with guaranteed contracts year in year out. It’s a multi-billion dollar industry at college level. Look the interest and betting volumes on college Football games and Basketball games. Look at the level of interest in the OHL and other junior leagues in Ice Hockey. Could you imagine British universities playing out a football game in front 60,000?! Could you imagine bettors staking more on that game than a Premier League match?!

But Baseball at minor league level is much more reserved in term of national exposure than Football and Basketball. Why? Because the length of time is takes for even a top draft pick to reach the big show is much longer than Basketball and Football. It’s a long-term process from signing in the draft to finally making the big stage. It could take many draft picks years to reach the majors. Of course there are exceptions to that with Justin

Experienced a bitterly disappointing sophomore year Jeff Francoeur

Verlander, BJ Upton, Tim Lincecum and Zach Greinke all making their debuts in relative quick time. But they are the rarity amongst players. Not co-incidentally, all are now regarded as elite players. Some like Jeff Francoeur reached the majors quickly but experienced a bitterly disappointing sophomore year and still managed to have enough to win a starting job.

Teams in MLB generally will experience injuries at various stages of the season. Bench players will help fill those gaps and using the Mets as our example, they had Perez and Maine plus top setup man, JJ Putz missing from their pitching corps and finally had Santana succumb to the injury curse. From the everyday line-up Reyes, Delgado, Beltran all missed significant playing time. Thus the Mets had two choices: trade for short term help or rely on their young players to step up.

But the problem was not only that they had too many holes to fill but also the lack of major league talent at the top end of the system. The top two prospects were Jonathan Niese and Fernando Martinez and both experienced injuries trouble as well as experiencing mixed production. Martinez was exposed as not quite major league ready at just 20 years of age whilst Niese was beginning to find his feet until he found himself injured! Bobby Parnell did make the roster on Opening Day but he looks to have been protected through situational elements and was tried in the rotation. Ultimately he was exposed as not quite having enough to unbalance hitters but should return to his bullpen role in 2010. Beyond the top two, there was little depth with many of the Mets’ top prospects to be found in the lower reaches of the minors with ETA of 2012 and beyond. The Red Sox had encountered comparable problems to the Mets with starting pitchers like Beckett, Wakefield, Dice K all getting injured and third baseman Mike Lowell and right fielder JD Drew both struggling with injuries and the fact they did not have a comparable shortstop to Jose Reyes. So what was the difference?

Well, the Phillies were the obvious starting point but the Red Sox had to overcome the Yankees and they still made the post-season via the wild card. They had Daniel Bard, Junichi Tazawa, Clay Buchholz to plug their pitching problems despite possessing plenty of insurance in John Smoltz and Brad Penny. Their bench players helped plug the gaps as well as trades for Victor Martinez and Adam LaRoche and subsequently Casey Kotchman. Theo Epstein was prepared to be aggressive and duly acted accordingly without giving up top young talent like Casey Kelly and Ryan Westmoreland. In contrast, Omar Minaya was left to look around the minors and rely on bench players to step up. Those players never gave Minaya any indications that being aggressive on the trade market could well parlay into a post-season spot.

So, is evaluating the farm system relevant to handicapping teams at major league level? It’s a matter of believing in “leaving no stone unturned”. If the Mets had a strong farm system similar to Boston’s or the Rangers’, would that have made a difference? It’s tough to say as whilst young talent like Feliz or Buchholz can inject any club with fresh impetus, any club that had the numerous holes the Mets had would’ve needed to make an impact trade that could propel the club simply to the post-season. At the least, give a GM a chance to decide whether to be aggressive or carry on with one eye to the future. As highlighted above, a strong farm system can have a knock on effect in that they can help a club maintain competitiveness whilst giving their GM the choice of whether to bet, check or fold, to borrow poker parlance.

The farm system is not just to replenish the major league roster directly. A strong farm system may also allow any GM to make the trades they need to help their own ballclubs. The Red Sox and Phillies had the prospects to entice the Indians into parting with elite talent in Victor Martinez and Cliff Lee. Both trades arguably made the major difference for both clubs’ 2009 destinies. Would the Phillies have won the NL East without Lee? Would they have gotten to the World Series without Lee? Would the Red Sox have won the wild card race without Martinez? All those questions are, of course subjective but nonetheless valid.

The bottom line: it helps to know every team’s farm system. Like everything related to betting, it’s all about opinions. Researching, evaluating talent and what to look for is the aim in this article and we take a look at the New York Mets’ top 10 prospects (not in any particular order) and whether they can help at major league level in 2010. Before we take a look at top prospects, there are three main sources of information as well as countless blogs dedicated to monitoring and evaluating prospects. Baseball America and Scout.com offer comprehensive analysis of each player whilst Youtube provides coverage of a player’s performance. Fangraphs also list every player’s minor league statistics to help provide a general picture of a player’s performance.

1. Ike Davis -

He was a first round pick along with Reese Havens in the same year and suffered a very slow start to his professional career. Since then, he has done nothing but impressed with not only his bat but also his defence. The Mets have projected him to be in the majors around 2011 and with Daniel Murphy also impressing the Mets despite having to learn “on the job” without the benefit of minor league seasoning, the future looks bright for the Mets at the first base corner.

2. Wilmer Flores -

This guy has wowed scouts with his performances at a very young age and has been compared by many to Miguel Cabrera. His short compact swing does not look natural but the bottom line so far: he can definitely hit. He’s playing shortstop at the moment but does not have the glove work of Ruben Tejada and Jose Reyes meaning a possible switch to the hot corner or outfield is more then likely. At his precocious age, there should be plenty more to come as he matures and continue to develop in the minor leagues.

3. Jefry Marte -

He signed the same year as Wilmer Flores albeit with less fanfare but has shown enough to suggest he could even out-perform his more hyped fellow third baseman. When you compare both hitters’ swing, it is clear that Marte’s swing has a more natural feel to it but whether that translates to better production then Flores is the question. He plays third base but will need plenty of time before he is MLB ready as he is still a teenager.

4. Jenrry Mejia -

He burst on the scene from nowhere immediately dividing scouts as to his ceiling with plenty thinking he can be a number 2 starter at the least and others thinking he may be more suited to a relief role. However, one thing they all agree on is the excellent fastball Mejia possesses. His curve and changeup still needs work but at just 19 yr old, he’s shown superb command and if he can work on reducing his speed of his changeup and tinker with his curve without compromising his release points and show similar mechanics to his fastball, he may be a fast riser in 2010. He showed plenty of progress in 2009 and if he can maintain that rate of progress or still show enough to suggest he can further improve, the Mets may have a bonafide top prospect on their hands.

5. Jeurys Familia -

The second top arm in the system and like Mejia, just 19 yrs old. He did not have the hype or scope Mejia had earlier in the year but that all changed when the velocity on his fastball improved and his aggressive nature in throwing inside combined with an improving breaking ball with a curveball similarly to Clayton Kershaw’s in that it breaks at a 45 degree angle rather then a normal 12-6 trajectory looks to have given Familia 2 excellent pitches to live on. With further development of his changeup he could have better upsides then Mejia and with Kyle Allen, thought to be close behind Familia in terms of stuff and progression, the Mets may well have another fascinating young arm to watch out for in the coming years.

6. Brad Holt -

Like so many young pitchers, he definitely has the fastball but his problem is his secondary pitches and command. The Hardball Times offered a comprehensive scouting report on his mechanics-  Since then he has not progressed as much as others. He’s been compared to John Maine and regular readers will know he has a very straight fastball and much depends on location. I would hope Holt project better then Maine who may be better as a closer such as his inability to go deep into games. The bottom line: Holt must continue to show signs of progress in developing or improving his secondary pitches. At 23 yr of age 2010 is a critical season for him in terms of how far he can go.

7. Jonathan Niese -

Niese has good experience in the majors already and showed improvements from his first stint to his second in 2009 which was unfortunately cut short by injuries. He should challenge for the fifth starter spot at Spring Training and further improvements should be forthcoming with his typical lefty repertoire of a high 80s-low 90s fastball, curve and changeup combo. For me, he’s currently at the level of someone like Manny Parra, of the Brewers but with the help of the cavernous setting of Citi Field and more experience, he could post a sub 4.00 ERA if he can stay healthy.

8. Fernando Martinez -

He’s been the top Mets prospect for the last couple of years and at just 20 yr of age, he remains a young exciting talent. However, like Phillip Hughes of the Yankees, surely too much was expected of him too soon and it may take a few more years before he becomes a bona fide major league bat. In his first year, he struggled at times but showed glimpses of his potential and another season in the minors will not do him harm as he has suffered something of an injury interrupted career thus far, stalling his learning progression. With the Mets having just landed Jason Bay on a 4 yr guaranteed deal with a vesting option for a fifth, Fernando Martinez will have plenty of time to work on his batting and hopefully blossom into a potent bat in 2-3 years time.

9. Reese Havens -

He was taken in the first round draft alongside Ike Davis and had played shortstop and second. Given Reyes’ likely long term stranglehold on the shortstop position and Havens’ own limitations defensively, it is much more likely Havens will likely play second. His bat is more then good enough for the position but at 23 years of age, he must develop quickly or find himself down the pecking order. Given the Mets’ flirtations with either trading Castillo and replacing him with Kennedy or Hudson, it is unlikely 2010 will see the MLB debut of Havens. In fact, like Davis, he is projected to arrive in the majors by 2011.

10. Josh Thole
He’s come a long way in the last year showing a bat that can make consistent contact but at the same time, lacking the power and patience to back up that nice batting average. As a left- handed bat, he has plenty of value and 2010 figures to be a critical one for him and also for the Mets whether it’s in the majors or minors. He must continue to develop his defensive skills whilst improving his batting. Tough to do both but he’s still relatively young. Should he fail, the Mets are back to square one in finding a long term catcher. Not since the days of Mike Piazza has the Mets enjoyed continuity at the position.

Best of the Rest

Kyle Allen
Highly regarded and not much between Allen and Familia on scouting reports. The reason Familia is regarded higher is because Familia’s fastball is regarded as major league ready. Like many other young pitchers, Allen must keep showing improvements even if the numbers do not follow.

Scott Moviel
He is like Daniel Murphy with his attitude and personality praised rather then any natural talent. If he can show the same drive and willingness to learn, he has the size to make an impact. At 6ft 10” he has considerable mound presence and he has shown the maturity to dial down his fastball for strikes rather then flat out 100 mph fastballs with little control. The Mets will be patient with him as he is rather “toolsy” and simply requires a strong pitching coach.

Cesar Puello
This young hitter signed not long after the signings of Flores and Marte and projects as a similar player to Jeff Francoeur with his physical body and cannon arm. By all reports, he projects as average but I really like his swing and make up.

Ruben Tejada
The Mets have been aggressive with this fine defender at the shortstop position but with Reyes set to man the position for years to come, he could simply be a valuable trading chip or be moved to the keystone position of 2nd. His bat is nothing special but the Mets has pushed him aggressively and he’s still on track in terms of development for his age.

Zach Lutz
An intriguing option but like Shawn Bowman, he has the stumbling block of franchise 3rd baseman David Wright in his way! Lutz is still fairly raw despite being 23 and the next 2 years will make or break his career. He must stay healthy but plenty of scouts rate his bat as major league standard and if he can develop in the next couple of years whilst staying injury free, he has every chance of making it to the show.

Dillon Gee
Had previously been earmarked as a potential back of the rotation type after showing excellent command but like plenty of young pitchers we saw last year with similar traits (Nationals’ Jordan Zimmermann) he may not have quite enough to see him succeed on the big stage. His stuff isn’t going to blow hitters away but he does have every chance of challenging for a fifth starter spot. He may benefit from one more year at Triple A and should provide insurance for the rotation if he can stay healthy.

Eddie Kunz
He was a supplemental pick and thought to be close to the majors as a live college arm. However he has been bitterly disappointing so far. Despite having a similar heavy pitch to Mike Pelfrey and also the fact he closed at college level, the hallmark of his professional career has been poor control. The normal battles all young pitchers go through. However, as a college arm, he really should be more advanced then he is now and time is running out for him. In 2009 he posted a 5.02 ERA at Triple A level and more amazingly he had a BABIP of .256 meaning despite better luck then most, he still couldn’t get his ERA down to the average! If he can harness control in 2010, he’ll definitely help the Mets but he’s not the sort of impact player the Mets desperately need.

Francisco Pena
He was notable as a free agent signing at a very young age and also the fact he is the son of a former major league player. He plays the catcher position but is a long way from even strong consideration at MLB. His bat does not look good enough and despite favourable scouting reports, he doesn’t project as anything more then a back up catcher. He may be just 20 but he hasn’t shown anything to suggest his bat is good enough to land a starting catching position anywhere. He showed flashes of power but for now, he has 3-4 years to save his dreams of following in his father’s footsteps.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis
One of the most improved players in the farm system but personally, there’s a suspicion he’s nothing more then a fourth outfielder. He has plenty of speed but he must develop that bat and secondary skills to force himself into strong consideration to be Carlos Beltran’s eventual successor.

So what does the above mean in terms of the New York Mets themselves and to betting? In their current state, the Mets are relying on players who were injured last season to return fully healthy and back to their productive best. That is a very realistic scenario as I think Oliver Perez can rebound into a 13-15 win season and an ERA lower then 4.00 and Mike Pelfrey can hopefully harness his command. Is that enough to consider them for NL East supremacy? No. Even the recent addition of Jason Bay is not enough and they still need improvements notably at the catcher position as well as pitching depth in their rotation. For me, at this moment in time I feel they have more then enough to make trades should they wish but with conditions namely taking on huge salaries such as Bronson Arroyo, Aaron Harang and Miguel Cabrera’s salaries or packaging their prospects in quantity rather then quality meaning they may have to “bankrupt” their system the way the Phillies did in trading 7 of their top 10 prospects in just 2 trades (for Lee and latterly for Halladay).

Considering how thin the farm system is at the upper reaches of the minors, they are unlikely to have enough to trade for impact talent. Even with the signed Jason Bay, they still have too many holes to fill. The problem is not only the weak free agent class but also how the rest of MLB evaluate the Mets’ prospects. My personal opinion is that the Mets have excellent talent in the lower reaches of the system meaning they have very good prospects but those prospects are some years away from the majors given their very young ages. Which brings us to the other reason for a strong farm system: can those prospects help the major league team through the season replacing loss of form, injuries and trade departures? With the exception of Niese, Martinez, Thole and Davis, the rest of the prospects haven’t shown enough to suggest they can make the step up to the big show. Dillon Gee and Eddie Kunz can help the pitching depth but both need to prove they can make the step up.

Thole could still step up to catcher but he has plenty to prove in terms of whether he can sustain his hitting over the longer term and he really needs a full time catching or hitting job rather then limited at bats he would likely get with the Mets. Niese is a possibility but as with any young pitcher he must learn to harness command whilst improving his secondary pitches and in any case, the likes of Maine, Pelfrey, Perez and even Santana must all prove they can stay healthy and productive. Martinez is very young for an outfielder and the tools are there but he needs time and the signing of Bay allows him that time. And finally Ike Davis who has made excellent strides in the last year but like so many Mets prospects, 2010 figures to be a critical time for him as he must prove he can sustain his current level of hitting and progress to be strongly considered for 2011.

Obviously, analysis of any team will lead to a betting conclusion and at this point in time, I would think they are grossly overpriced. Yes the core of the team is as good as any but all have to prove their health and production. For the money, the Braves have the better chance then the Mets

Needs to prove he can make the step up Dillon Gee

with a nice farm system and rotation. There isn’t much help over the horizon immediately unless the Mets aggressively push their young players onto the big stage which is unlikely. So with no help from their farm system and a GM who strangely continue to overbid for average players (even Jason Bay) despite claiming to have no money for John Lackey, 2010 figures to be a transitional season for the Mets.

As a fan I just wish Minaya would come out and admit it then considering throwing money at free agents who obviously do not want to come to Flushing. Jason Bay signed by default having seen the market rightly fail to develop for his flawed talents and I have strong doubts as his body may not hold up even on a shorter deal! Bengie Molina is laughably demanding a 3 year deal at the age of 35 yr in a position when decline is the norm at his age. The Mets should’ve told both to take a running jump and go for short term solutions in light of next year’s free agent class which may include Joe Mauer and Carl Crawford who are far more palatable options then a 35 yr old catcher and a 31 yr defensively challenged outfielder! All will be forgiven if the Mets go all in next year on Mauer.

But in the meantime, there will surely be plenty of value in opposing the Mets in the early stages of the season. Bay may have arrived pending a medical, but until the Mets follow through with real quality in the rotation, they’ll set themselves up for another vicious cycle of boom and bust. Despite the time spent researching teams, there’s still value in making the time to research teams and farm systems as like the game itself, the full extent of those benefits could yet impact your thoughts in years to come.

Giant_Causeway