Young Players to Watch 2010 - Part One

By Giant_Causeway

Last season, I identified plenty of young talent who went on to make an impact. Players like Matt Wieters, David Price, Clay Buchholz, and Rick Porcello were all regarded as elite prospects and didn’t disappoint. There were so many young players that made their debut and only underline the continuing changing of the guard. With the end of the steroid era forcing retirements, it is looking increasingly likely to ensure that previous trends of players playing regularly in their late thirties become a thing of the past.

Young Players to Watch - Part One
Young Players to Watch - Part Two

There were so many more young talents who made debuts and a year later, we take a look at the next generation of talent worth keeping an eye on and some repeat talent from last year’s list who didn’t make it to the show or achieve the impact they were capable of.

As a fan and fantasy gamer, it’s a labour of love researching and “scouting” young talent. Like many American sports, part of baseball’s appeal is the fantasy element as thousand of baseball fans attempt to play GM. Given the Americans’ love of statistical data, there’s already an industry devoted to the fantasy world in the NFL, MLB, NBA and the NHL. For novices, the key is in identifying the young players who can make an impact for little cost. So a list of young players to watch and we start with last season’s holdovers who did not make a sizeable impact but are still well worth keeping an eye on.

Wade Davis (Rays) - He was a late call-up last season and did very well in 6 starts posting a 3.72 ERA bearing in mind he suffered a bad outing against the Red Sox in his second start giving up 8 runs in 2.2 innings. Despite that nightmare outing, he showed he has the skill-set and strong mentality to bounce back suggesting he has every chance of pitching for the Rays in 2010. With the surprise late season trade of Kazmir to the Angels; the door is now open for Davis to join Shields, Garza, Price, and Niemann as part of a strong looking rotation. The only stumbling block is the presence of Andy Sonnanstine and health as of now but he must beware the other prospects in the likes of McGee and dark horse Jeremy Hellickson who has been highly regarded by plenty of scouts.

Jeff Samardzija (Cubs) - I had high hopes for Samardzija in 2009 but he disappointed on so many levels. He was inconsistent and if the Cubs avoid making the same mistakes the Yankees did with Joba Chamberlain in not defining his role to either starter or reliever for the duration of the season, he could settle down and show just why the Cubs shelled out $11m for him. Those heavy sinking fastballs are still there, albeit in flashes and let’s hope the Cubs finally settle on a role for Samardzija in 2010.

Gio Gonzalez (As) - A highly regarded leftie who has been used as trade chips by the WhiteSox and the Phillies before landing in the Bay area in the Blanton trade. His stuff has always wowed scouts but his command and consistency has been spotty at times. He did well at times but he still has to improve his control. His walks had always been a bone of contention and if he matures and improves his command, he has the tools to go a long way as lefties generally take longer then righties to mature and at just 24 yrs he still has time on his side. He’s been a long time favourite of mine to watch and 2010 can be a step in the right direction.

Yonder Alonso (Reds) - “A power hitting 1st baseman, he’ll likely struggle to dislodge Joey Votto who enjoyed a good season in his first year. Unless he changes position or the Reds decide to trade him, he’ll likely start in the minors. He’s worth keeping an eye on for 2010 and beyond.” –that was the 2009 comment. Nothing’s changed and he’s well worth keeping an eye on.

Daric Barton (As) - With the arrival of Jason Giambi in 2009, he found his time limited being demoted to Triple A. He follows the As philosophy of patience and that is reflected in his numbers. He may not have got his contact rate as high as he’d like but that OBP is the true meaning of “moneyball”. As a young hitter, he would benefit from extra time and regular playing time. Can he get it with the likes of Chris Carter competing for the 1st base job? Like another of the Athletics’ young player, Gonzalez (above), I may be guilty of over-rating Barton but there’s a difference.. I do not expect Barton to be an elite bat along the lines of a Teixeira or Youkilis player but merely a Nick Johnson type player.. Acceptable average, high OBP and an average glove.. The big question is whether Chris Carter proves far too irresistible for the Athletics to hold back in favour of Barton.

Mat Gamel (Brewers) - A huge disappointment in his debut season. His defence was already at best, average and he will need to show a huge improvement in his hitting to justify inclusion on the roster at the third base position. He’s still worth keeping an eye on and if he can remedy his 2009 woes at the plate, he can offer Fielder and Braun bona fide protection in the line-up.

Travis Snider (BlueJays) - Long been considered a sure-fire major league bat. He didn’t quite produce in 2009 but with Rios gone and the Bluejays in rebuilding mode, he should get ample playing time to develop himself and establish himself alongside with Adam Lind and Aaron Hill as one of the building blocks new GM Alex Anthopoulos can build around.

Cameron Maybin (Marlins) - A key chip in the Miguel Cabrera trade to Detroit. He has long been highly regarded as a 5 tool prospect and with the Marlins, he found himself in the mix for a starting job but unfortunately came up short early in the season. However, 2009 should prove to be simply an extension of Maybin’s learning curve. There were so many things to take from 2009. The way he recovered at Triple A after demotion and applied his new found plate discipline last September bodes well for the future and 2010 should see further improvement and possibly a breakout year.

Brett Wallace (Bluejays) - He’s been the Bluejays’ long time target from the moment they scouted him in the 2007 draft to now when they parted with Michael Taylor, a top prospect acquired in the Halladay trade to Oakland for Wallace. If he’s that good, why did the Cardinals and Athletics readily part with Wallace in the last year? The one question mark is his defence. Like another Bluejay young hitter in Travis Snider, Wallace has always been highly regarded by MLB scouts in hitting and that is clearly not in question. The Bluejays are likely to move Wallace to first base and he is well worthy of a close watching brief in 2010. His power and contact rate should continue to be thereabouts but it is his defence that will determine whether he can be an elite talent with impact in both offence and defence.

Casey Kelly (Red Sox) - He’s nowhere near major league ready but makes this list on his considerable potential. He will not make the majors in 2010 for sure but having finally relented on his desire to play shortstop and focus on pitching in this coming season, the Red Sox nation and baseball fans will be keeping one eye on this much hyped prospect. Should he continue to develop the Red Sox’s future will be much brighter.

Brian Matusz / Chris Tillman (Orioles) - I’ve grouped the pair as one as both are elite young pitchers who will likely win their spot in the Orioles rotation behind veteran Kevin Millwood. Both are highly regarded and have shown more then enough in 2009 to suggest they can enjoy sustainable success at the big show. On the negative side, it’s tough to develop yourself pitching in the tough AL East but anything near the 4.00 ERA mark for the pair would constitute something of a success in that division. Of the pair, Matusz is perhaps much more major league ready then Tillman and he has already impressed in several appearances for the Os. Matusz should enjoy a competent 2010 in the majors and can cement himself in the upper echelons of the Os rotation.

Junichi Tazawa (Red Sox) - Tazawa made headlines by becoming the third Japanese player to sign for a MLB team via free agency without professional baseball experience. There were interests between the usual suspects but it was the Red Sox who won the battle to sign Tazawa. He made his MLB debut against the Yankees pitching in relief in extra innings. Like his countryman Dice K, he possesses plenty of pitches but his fastball is not quite there in terms of velocity. Considering this is his first professional season in baseball, he’s done very well and at just $3m over 3 years, compared to Aroldis Chapman and Stephen Strasburg who cost at the least 5 times more then Tazawa’s asking price, he’s a bargain. He’ll need to show improvements in his second season and he’ll likely be given more time in the minor leagues whilst providing insurance should the Red Sox’s rotation and bullpen need reinforcement.

Stephen Strasburg (Nationals) - He was the number one draft pick in the amateur draft in 2009 and much hyped as the Nationals’ saviour. Combined with the fact his agent is Scott Boras, his headlines were more about money and the debate on his $15.1m signing bonus. Is he worth that money? If he makes an impact at major league level then yes but like Jeff Samardzija of the Cubs, he must prove himself that the hype also has substance. He clearly has the fastball but are his secondary pitches as good as advertised? With the Nationals also possessing the number one draft pick this year and the chance to sign another phenom in 17 yr old Bryce Harper, the Nationals will hope that Strasburg can plant the seeds of a Nationals’ revolution with the arrival of Harper to come.

Aroldis Chapman (Reds) - The hard throwing Cuban defector, like Strasburg had made plenty of noises regarding contract expectations and showed his ruthless side in ditching the man who helped him defect to the United States in favour of more experienced sport agents in the respected Hendricks brothers, representatives of Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte amongst other big names. His showcase impressed plenty of teams but it wasn’t the big market teams who showed the strongest interest. Instead the Reds edged out the Bluejays in the battle for Chapman’s services and the pressure will be on Chapman to prove his 100 mph fastball can more then match MLB hitters. He’ll need to adjust culturally to a new country, prove he can improve his spotty command and work his way through the minor leagues. On the plus side, the way his contract is structured, there’s plenty of incentive for Chapman to make it to the majors in quick time. The question: Can he?

Carlos Santana (Indians) - He’s the number one young catcher in the minor leagues. With Matt Wieters, of the Orioles entrenched in the big leagues, Santana and Buster Posey of the Giants lead the new wave of young catchers. For Santana, at 23 yrs, the time is now. Unfortunately for him and the Indians, he’s out injured and scheduled to return in the summer. He has shown an excellent arm and good offensive production and he should make an impact similar or better to Wieters’ production in 2009. He’ll need to continue to improve his game calling skills but for fantasy gamers, we’ll be keeping an eye on him with a view to 2011.

Tyler Flowers (White Sox) - A young catcher who was acquired from the Braves in the Vazquez trade. He was highly regarded by the Braves who also had Pena and their current catcher McCann blocking Flowers hence the trade. For the catching position, he has AJ Pierzynski to contend with in 2009 but he should see some MLB time this year as the White Sox look to Flowers as their 2011 catcher and beyond. His bat is not in question and is more potent then his defence and he should contribute at MLB level. With continued rates of improvements in his defence he should be ready to take his place as an elite catcher in 2011.

Pedro Alvarez (Pirates) - This young third baseman was the subject of political games by Pirates advisor, Frank Coonelly in a staunch defence of the draft slotting system. He had Scott Boras as his agent and was rated an elite bat. Both sides played a dangerous game of bluff with Alvarez in the middle before the Pirates and Boras compromised using Buster Posey’s (Giants) signing bonus as the reference point in negotiations. In the minors, he’s shown an average glove and whilst the power is there, he strikes out far too often. He’s improved his conditioning and it’s a question of whether his glove and bat can improve for a possible starting job in 2010 and beyond.

Brad Lincoln (Pirates) - He’s now in third season removed from Tommy John surgery and 2009 was all about re-establishing his fastball and those secondary pitches that made him a first round draft pick. In 2010 he will look to improve his secondary pitches of his curve and changeup with every chance of a mid season call up given the state of the Pirates’ pitching.

Neftali Feliz (Rangers) - Whilst he made an excellent impression on myself as a reliever, like David Price of the Rays, he has grand designs on making a name for himself as the ace of the staff. In that respect, he has plenty to prove. We saw Price struggle at times mainly with command in 2009 and Feliz has the same questions to answer. Can he retain command of all his pitches? Does he have more to offer then his fastballs? Does he have the arm strength to pitch deep into the season? Plenty of questions. He’ll likely experience growing pains as all young pitchers do but 2010 should prove simply a stepping stone to better things. Just remember two things.. Feliz’s age and the career progression of a certain Felix Hernandez, quite perhaps MLB’s top pitcher even ahead of Zack Greinke. It’s easy to be disappointed after all the promise. Like Phillip Hughes of the Yankees we should learn to temper out expectations of precocious young pitchers and afford these players the time to develop.

Justin Smoak (Rangers) - Like plenty of other young bats like Snider, Wallace and Lutz, his bat has always been rated major league ready and this switch hitter should find himself in the majors in 2010. Unlike the aforementioned three names, Smoak has an excellent glove and has been compared to Mark Teixeira the former Rangers first baseman now plying his trade with the Yankees. For Smoak, at 23 yrs, the time is now. Chris Davis may be the first baseman incumbent but a slow start could see Smoak propelled into the big show.

Next week I will conclude my preview of the "Young Players to Watch in 2010".

Giant_Causeway