Players to Avoid in 2010

By Giant_Causeway

Part of fantasy baseball's mantra is the buy low and sell high scenario. Unlike the New York Mets, fantasy gamers need to avoid the pitfalls of buying high into 'stars' when decline is more then likely. We start with one pitcher who compares to the classic cases of ex-Cardinals pitchers like Jeff Weaver and Todd Wellemeyer in Pineiro.

Joel Pineiro (Los Angeles Angels) - The New York Mets were the team most thought prominent in the bidding for Pineiro’s services but they never really gave the impression they were serious bidders. They were thought to be serious contenders for Jason Marquis who signed a $15m/2 year deal with the Nationals but never even made a competitive bid. The Angels meanwhile moved to plug the gap vacated by departing ace John Lackey offering a 2 year deal barely better then the Marquis contract. They weren’t decisive in their quest for Pineiro and the suspicion remains he is thought of as simply the best of a bad bunch. Leaving behind pitching miracle worker Dave Duncan behind in St. Louis, he’ll need to prove unlike Jeff Weaver he can sustain the level of pitching without Duncan’s tutelage. With the move back to the AL and several of his peripheral statistics strongly portending to regression from his breakout 2009 season, I can’t help but breathe a sigh of relief that the Mets have dodged a bullet in not moving for him.

Randy Wolf (Milwaukee Brewers) - Another pitcher coveted by the Mets but he stole a march on the rest of his fellow free agent pitchers by signing swiftly a three year pact worth almost $30m over 3 years with the Brewers. Is he worth that kind of money? The market price for pitchers has increased but going on current precedents he has equal advocates for and against his current contract. Given his history and effectiveness in his healthy years, he must still be worth at the very least 65% of his current contract. He’s not an elite starter but more of a number 3 or 4 type. He’s shown he can pitch effectively but for a deal that long, I’d be weary of his injury history and with right-handed line-ups in the Cubs and Cards to contend with, he won’t have the advantage over those teams.

Derek Lowe (Atlanta Braves) - Lowe came into the 2009 season armed with a four years deal from the Braves but despite winning 15 games he posted an ERA of 4.67. Not quite what the Braves had in mind for the money ($15m per). Along with Javier Vazquez both were prime candidates to be traded but Vazquez’s lower salary and single year proved more attractive in the trade market. This season he is not expected to lead the staff with Hudson, Jurrjens and Hanson grabbing the headlines but the Braves will be counting on Lowe to once again provide 34 starts but they will be hoping for more innings and a lower ERA as they attempt to hang with the Phillies. With personal doubts surrounding Jurrjens and Hanson as well as the health of Tim Hudson, Lowe will need to step up to the plate. The problem for me, age. At the age of 36 in 2009 he showed a dip in velocity as well as other declining peripherals in his overall numbers. Not a great sign for the remaining three years on his contract but he should continue to prove simply useful. He may even improve on his 2009 ERA but he’ll do well to match the 15 wins he produced. I’ll be interested to see whether he’s priced on reputation or on the basis of his 2009 season.

J.A Happ (Philadelphia Phillies) - As a lefty rookie pitching for the Phillies he authored a very impressive pitching line of 12-4 in 23 starts whilst maintaining an impressive 2.93 ERA. However whilst he has shown he is clearly useful, he is certainly not the ace his numbers suggest he can potentially be. There are so many red flags from his low K/9 to his high “Left on Base percentage %” of 85.2 that suggest he should post an ERA at the least, in the mid 4.00 range given similar innings. Despite a HR/FB % of 9.5 which is slight below league average he still gave up 20 home runs in 166 innings, not a great sign given he pitched three games more on the road then at home. Finally the biggest red flag of all is his repertoire. Like John Maine (of the Mets) his fastball is pretty straight with not too much movement. He does have other pitches in his slider, changeup and curve and the key for Happ will be how he mixes up his pitches and change speed as well as maintaining consistent mechanics on all his pitches.

Jair Jurrjens (Atlanta Braves) - Like Pineiro above, he benefited from a low BABIP and his peripheral statistics suggest his ERA is nothing but smokes and mirrors. Watching Jurrjens, he is definitely hittable as he pitches to contact and looking at his overall profile and numbers he should regress this season from his excellent 2009 when he posted a 2.60 ERA. In recent news there are reports he has experienced tightness in his shoulder which would further support that theory of regression. The Braves fortunes depend on Jurrjens and looking at the difference between his rookie and sophomore years, there is really not that much of a difference apart from one thing: luck. BABIP may be a simplistic explanation for the difference in ERA but his HR/FB% of just 6.1 is surely unsustainable leading to likely an ERA in the mid 3.00 to mid 4.00 range in 2010.

Randy Wells (Chicago Cubs) - He enjoyed an impressive rookie season posting a 12-10 record with an eye-catching 3.05 ERA. As a prospect he doesn’t have the reputation or the numbers of a Jeremy Hellickson or the sexy high draft ranking of David Price but he’s proven himself a useful pitcher. Can he build on his impressive 2009? The answer for me is no. He is not a top of the rotation starter but he should still prove a useful back of the rotation type. He’ll still prove useful but expect an ERA in the low to mid 4.00 range. He’s not one to avoid completely if he proves a cheap pick up but there are surely better pitchers out there at similar prices.

Dontrelle Willis (Detroit Tigers) - I’m not quite sure what possessed the Tigers to hand out a three years extension to Willis after a season in which he went 10-15 and posted a high 5.17 ERA before the trade to the Tigers but I’m sure they are absolutely regretting such a hasty and ultimately foolish decision. Since then Willis has been a complete disaster with the Tigers going a combined 1-6 in 14 starts whilst posting an ugly 8.34 ERA in his Tigers career. Now in the last year of that extension that sees him draw $12m amid the depressing backdrop of a deep recession in Detroit, he’s making positive noises about coming back from an “anxiety disorder”. But don’t let that fool you into taking any chances as the undisputed facts on current and recent evidence is he’s done and has nothing left in his locker. Even before the trade to the Tigers he was showing signs that the years of violent delivery has taken its toil. The fastball no longer dominates and his career numbers all points to the end with regression coming in every season since his breakout year.

Eric Gagne (Los Angeles Dodgers) - I just can’t quite believe the Dodgers have given Gagne a minor league deal at the time of writing. Before he entered his peak years of dominance in 2002 he was simply an average pitcher as a starter with various control issues and average strikeout abilities in the 7.00 range. Then in 2002 he converted himself into a dominant closer with amazing strikeout abilities in the 12.00 range! How to explain that? Quirks of baseball or performance enhancement of some type? He was absolutely dominant until he suffered an injury in 2005. Since then he has attempted various comebacks with differing organisations without any semblance of the dominance that marked his Dodgers’ peak years. What those post 2005 years show is more in line with his pre 2002 numbers meaning a simply average pitcher with a strikeout rate of K/9 of 6-7 and command issues. So by giving Gagne a minor league deal, what are the Dodgers hoping to get from him? That’s the question I’d love to know the answer to! Are they really hoping to catch lightning in a bottle?

Manny Ramirez (Los Angeles Dodgers) - It’s a dangerous game to dismiss someone of Ramirez’s calibre given the career numbers he has achieved but in 2009 he showed glimpses of regression. At his age with tighter drugs testing, there is the only realistic projection one can make about Manny. The question is how dramatic a decline will he endure? Of course, he could well make me look very silly by posting normal productive numbers especially as he is in his contract year but the percentage play is to bet on regression.

That concludes the list of players to avoid in 2010. With the season set to get underway, I’ll be back with a comprehensive preview of the MLB season.

Giant_Causeway