MLB Preview 2010 Part Two

By Giant_Causeway

AL Central
This is arguably one of baseball's weakest divisions but at the same time, the flaws of all contenders also make this division a competitive one.

Cleveland Indians
Last season, the Cleveland Indians started as the favourites but got off to an awful start and found themselves well out of contention by the all star break leading to the trades of stars like Victor Martinez and Cliff Lee. The absence of Grady Sizemore was a huge blow but surely not the sole reason they failed to fire all year. Now a year on, the franchise star returns to find a new manager in place with fellow franchise players in Martinez and Lee long departed and himself surrounded by a new wave of prospects and young stars. The Indians are clearly in rebuilding mode but they still have enough about them to hang with the leaders at some point of the season before fading down the stretch. They should be battling it out with Royals in the fight to avoid the basement of the AL Central.

Kansas City Royals
My comments regarding the Kansas City Royals in 2009 still applies and they are still in rebuilding mode. For them, it’s all about the pitching headlined by Cy Young winner Zach Greinke and closer Joakim Soria. Their pitching does look useful whilst their line-up has useful players. But to get even a winning season, the key for the Royals lies in the production of former first round draft picks in Luke Hochevar and Alex Gordon whom the Royals picked ahead of the like of Tim Lincecum, Clayton Kershaw, Evan Longoria, Ryan Braun, Ryan Zimmerman and countless others in their respective drafts. They’ll need Alex Gordon to really enjoy an injury free season and at the same time, enjoy a productive season befitting his status as a first round pick. They’ll need Luke Hochevar to finally emerge as the ace he had already threatened to be. But even if those first round draft picks produce, they’ll still likely fall short in the pressure cooker of any possible pennant race.

Detroit Tigers
The Detroit Tigers faltered spectacularly on the run in to the 2009 divisional race with the drinking antics of Miguel Cabrera making headlines as a major factor they faltered. For me, that’s a little too easy to be blaming a first baseman for their failings. The bottom line as with any bad beats is that the game or race ain’t over until it’s over. The Tigers had the pennant chase in their own hands until they contrived to implode on their season with the Twins piling on the pressure and ultimately handling the rigours and pressures of a title race far better then the Tigers. The major issues in 2009 was the lack of depth in their line-up and starting pitching with the Tigers now having to cope with the departures of Placido Polanco, Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson.

There is also the departure of closer Fernando Rodney who proved effective in closing situation despite his ugly ERA suggesting otherwise. In their places, rookie Scott Sizemore, Austin Jackson, Max Scherzer and veterans in Johnny Damon and Jose Valverde will be asked to plug the gaps created by the departure of the four major leaguers. Apart from Miguel Cabrera, there is not a consistent power threat with Magglio Ordenez and Carlos Guillen in decline and the line-up does not look deep in comparison with other AL clubs. They may have signed Johnny Damon but he represents a puzzling decision from the owner who effectively replaced the younger and cheaper Curtis Granderson with an older and slightly more expensive Johnny Damon. The bullpen issues are still present with Valverde having plenty to prove despite his NL resume. The rotation is similar and headed by Justin Verlander but relying heavily on youth in Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer whilst rolling the dice on rebounding players in the veteran trio of Jeremy Bonderman, Dontrelle Willis and Nate Robertson who do not inspire confidence. They’re in a similar spot to last season but they’re a younger version and there are other teams in this division with fewer flaws then the Tigers.

Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins took advantage of the Tigers’ implosion to ensure their final season at the Metrodome was a glorious one. They open Target Field in April with the hope they can follow the Yankees and not the Mets in christening their new home with a playoff run. On top of the opening of the new stadium, franchise player and stud catcher Joe Mauer agreed a long term extension with the Twins ensuring the face of the franchise will likely end his career as a member of the Twins. However all their good news and optimism were undermined by recent news of closer Joe Nathan’s injury which rules him out for the season. With no one standout ace leading the staff and the absence of an elite closer, their pitching has huge questions to answer.

Who will step up to the plate in the rotation? Who will replace Nathan as the closer for 2010? Quite possibly only one man holds the answer but in which role? The name is Francisco Liriano. Now two years removed from Tommy John surgery, Francisco Liriano is the wild card that could propel the Twins into the playoffs or simply into mediocrity. He could headline a youngish but experienced rotation with Scott Baker, Glen Perkins, Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn behind him or provide the shutdown edge to the bullpen. Like last year, there are favourable reports to his performances in the winter leagues but he must prove he has indeed regained his velocity and command of his fastball and in particular, his changeup if he persists on utilising it.

The line-up is young and vibrant with only third base a question mark. The addition of JJ Hardy and Orlando Hudson instantly changes the complexion of the middle infield in terms of offence and defence. With the lead off skills of Denard Span and the power bats of Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Delmon Young offering depth to the line-up the Twins have the best line-up in the division. With Gardenhire as their manager, they’ll be thereabouts.

Chicago White Sox
The Chicago White Sox should always score runs in that bandbox they call home. But they will be hoping it’s the pitching that proves the factor that separates them from their divisional rivals. When GM Kenny Williams swung the trade for Jake Peavy last summer they had surprised many observers with their aggressiveness in the market in going for Peavy and claiming Rios and the remaining $50m on his contract off waivers. But from what looked like a promising position they unravelled down the stretch with Peavy unavailable to injury and Rios proving ineffective as well as 2008 breakout stars Carlos Quentin and Alexis Ramirez underperforming.

With an off-season under their belt and the acquisition of veterans Juan Pierre, Omar Vizquel, Mark Teahan and JJ Putz they should prove to right up there come the business end of the season. They have the best pitching in both the starting rotation and bullpen with the front four of Jake Peavy, Mark Buerhle, John Danks and Gavin Floyd amongst MLB’s best rotations. The line-up has speed, power, youth and depth and they can take the AL Central from the Minnesota Twins who has lost closer Joe Nathan to the dreaded Tommy John surgery and that can prove a factor. For me, it’s the Twins’ offence vs the Sox’s pitching. As the old mantra goes, pitching wins championships……

There is another market that catches the eye and that is the Royals to finish above the Indians with Expekt. At 2.6 they’re well worth a wager given the Royals, in my opinion has the better pitching then the Indians.

Pick: Chicago White Sox Alt: Minnesota Twins

Pick: AL Central: Chicago White Sox 3.5 Bodog 3pt win

Pick: AL Central Match Bet: Kansas City Royals to finish above Cleveland Indians in the regular season 2.45 Expekt 1.5pt win


AL West

This off-season in MLB has largely been dominated by one club and that’s the seemingly resurgent Seattle Mariners who have been very aggressively in the trade and free agency markets in moving for Chone Figgins, Milton Bradley, Cliff Lee and Casey Kotchman to emphasise their shift to defence. That has changed the face of the AL West with the Los Angeles Angels losing John Lackey their World Series Game 7 winner and ace, slugger Vladimir Guerrero and sparkplug Chone Figgins. The Texas Rangers has had a quiet off-season on the player’s front with their front office handcuffed by the change of ownership from Tom Hicks to Chuck Greenburg’s group. Last season the division was quite possibly theirs given any chances of making trades but with Tom Hicks asking for a bailout from MLB, they didn’t have the money to increase payroll. Now a burgeoning farm system, they seem to be poised to challenge for the division under new ownership. The fourth member of the AL West, the Oakland Athletics went through their usual quiet off-season picking up Michael Taylor, a long time target of the As in exchange for Brett Wallace whose fielding deficiencies meant a move to first base where the As already possess the likes of Chris Carter and Daric Barton. This might be a small division but it promises to be much more competitive then in recent years.

Oakland Athletics
The As were forever rebuilding due to payroll constraints but still did remarkably well in the late 90s and early 00s in competing with the bigger teams. As we approached the new decade, the next great challenge of Oakland GM Billy Beane is to devise a way to stay ahead of the game. Whilst he thrived under “Moneyball”, the rest of MLB have now cottoned on to the theory behind Moneyball and he has lost parts of his competitive edge. The likes of the Red Sox and the Yankees are actually becoming more efficient in their scouting and player development and with their big budgets that is bad news for small market teams whose models of efficiency enabled them to compete with the inefficient bigger market teams in previous years. Still, it would be dangerous to dismiss one of baseball’s pioneering minds and despite the recent down years from the As, they will always retain respect from all of MLB.

Previously, Billy Beane had taken steps to try and replenish his farm system with the trade of Danny Haren in recent times. But he has almost taken something of a gamble in signing big names to a seemingly cheap deal whilst trading for the likes of Matt Holliday. Is he genuinely entertaining thoughts of contending? No.. His strategy is clear and that is to “catch lightning in a bottle” and maximise a player’s value by signing them cheaply and trading them for prospects on the back of a hot season. This off-season he has splashed out on Ben Sheets and Coco Crisp and traded for Kevin Kouzmanoff.

He’ll need his young guns in Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez to step up whilst hoping the likes of Justin Duchscherer and Ben Sheets can bounce back from injuries and pitch to anywhere near their best. In the line-up, he’ll be hoping his collection of role players from Coco Crisp to Rajah Davis can ignite the rest of the line-up into hitting. Should those two components of the As fire, they have every chance of winning the division but that’s a big if. We all remembered GM Billy Beane who appeared to wave the white flag by trading Joe Blanton and Rich Harden despite being within striking distance of the Angels. Why? At the time, Beane went on record suggesting he did not feel the Athletics had enough to hang with the Angels and the package of prospects offered by the Phillies and the Cubs were too good to refuse. That’s the very definition of pragmatism.

Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers are slowly following the same path back into contention as the Tampa Bay Rays did a couple of years back. For the Rangers, their main problem this time round is not only pitching as in the past, but investment! Having failed to act at the trading deadline in 2009 due to payroll inflexibility, they took the unusual step in the off-season of trading their ace Kevin Millwood to the Os and replacing him with the injury prone Rich Harden for the sake of saving around $3m. Whilst I remain an avid fan of Rich Harden, I’m also wary of how his flyball tendencies will translate in a hitter’s park. Their line-up should still rake and they should finish in the top 3 run producing teams in MLB. The addition of Vladimir Guerrero as their DH only strengthens their claims as does the return of David Murphy from injury. They have speed, depth, power and just about everything you could ask for in a line-up! Their bullpen looks very strong and should phenom Neftali Feliz be part of that pen, it’s as strong as any others in MLB.

But like any potential championship team, it all starts and ends with starting pitching. There is a new wave of exciting hurlers coming through but that is for the future. The likes of Matt Harrison, Derek Holland, Brandon McCarthy and Tommy Hunter all have injuries and inexperience questions to answer. Colby Lewis who has pitched in Japan recently hasn’t really excelled in MLB proving very hittable. Their pitching as it stands has far too many question marks over inexperience, youth, durability and with Scott Feldman as their opening starter over Rich Harden, the perennial disability list guest, I’m not as high on the Rangers as other observers.

Seattle Mariners
The Mariners have been making the biggest noises of all teams with their aggressive off-season manoeuvrings with plenty of big names in the likes of Chone Figgins and Cliff Lee as well as perennial angry man Milton Bradley and Casey Kotchman bolstering the roster. However despite all their off-season moves, there is still a serious lack of power in the line-up. They have the best defence in the outfield but speed and small ball can only take you so far. The Angels may have played small ball the best of all MLB teams but they still had boppers in Guerrero, Morales, Abreu and Anderson to drive in those runs when it counts. Their pitching looks thin outside the big two of “King” Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee whilst their bullpen are no lock to repeat last season’s performance despite the acquisition of Brandon League and as we all know bullpen performances will always fluctuate from year to year.

Los Angeles Angels
In recent years, the Angels have been perennial divisional winner with plenty in hand over their rivals. But this off-season has been different. They’ve lost John Lackey who was their Game 7 winner in their World Series triumph back in 2002, they’ve lost their long time slugger Vladimir Guerrero and they lost their sparkplug atop the line-up in the versatile and tough Chone Figgins. Of more concern was the fact they lost the two hitters to divisional rivals. So is the playing field now level?

The Angels has simply moved on to a new era. They lost Garrett Anderson in 2009 and replaced him with the younger and more effective Bobby Abreu. So they’ve done it all over again. We forget they effectively already had Lackey’s replacement in their roster already with the acquisition of Scott Kazmir late last year. They signed Yankees DH, the World Series MVP Hideki Matsui to replace Guerrero. A tougher man to replace is Chone Figgins but his production is below what is required of a third baseman though his stolen bases do in some way mitigate those negative. But long time hyped prospect Brandon Wood has the opportunity to try and translate his outstanding minor league production to the majors with a fair run of games.

Asides from those losses, the Angels still have the best pitching in the division with plenty of quality and depth in the rotation and the acquisition of Fernando Rodney and the return of Scot Shields should ensure their bullpen improves on last year’s dismal showing. The line-up should still rake with Abreu, Morales and Matsui all set to be a challenge for right handers whilst Torii Hunter, Juan Rivera, Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar and Mike Napoli should all replicate or improve upon their 2009 production.

For me, the market has over-reacted to the Angels’ loss of Lackey, Guerrero and Figgins badly and the 2/1 with Boylesports is far too good to turn down given they were heavy odds on favourites just a year ago! Therefore, they have to rate a 5pt bet and my first 5pt recommendation for this column, no less!

Pick: Los Angeles Angels Alt: Seattle Mariners

Pick: AL West: Los Angeles Angels 3.0 Boylesports 5pt win

In my next article, we turn our attention to the NL..

Giant_Causeway