MLB Preview 2010 Part Three

By Giant_Causeway

NL East
Like their AL counterparts, the East in the NL figures to be a brutal division with the Phillies, the reigning National League champions, the precocious but maturing Marlins and the retooling Braves all harbouring serious claims at the NL title. Throw in a useful looking Nationals line-up and of course the rebounding New York Mets, you have fascinating battle for Eastern supremacy.

Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies has swapped Cliff Lee for Roy Halladay, resigned Placido Polanco and other then the pair of moves mentioned they hadn’t needed to make wholesale changes with the rotation and bullpen looking deep. They have everything in place for a repeat for the NL title with the left handed bats of Utley, Howard, and Ibanez set to anchor the line-up along with the ever evolving power bat of Jayson Werth and the lead off options of Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino and Placido Polanco. It’s a frightening prospect for any opposing pitcher in the division having to face such a deep line-up on regular basis. They are the rightful favourites for the NL title and a third consecutive World Series appearance is not beyond them.

Atlanta Braves
The Braves have tinkered with their rotation with Javier Vazquez the odd man out despite a stellar season in 2009. The reason is purely financial given the presence of Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe. In 2009, the Braves had the best starting rotation in the NL by far with every member of the rotation able to give the Braves the chance to win on any given night. With Jair Jurrgens, Tommy Hanson and Kenshin Kawakami joining their more expensive colleagues in Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe, the Braves will be hoping the trade of workhorse Javier Vazquez does not return to haunt them given personal doubts regarding Jurrjens, Hudson and Lowe. Of the trio, Jurrjens’ BABIP in 2009 and his hittable repertoire means he’s at the mercy of the gods and he’s more then likely to regress in 2010. Derek Lowe showed decline in 2009 which is no surprise given his age and he has much to prove. Tim Hudson is just one year removed from Tommy John surgery and represents a worry health wise.

The bullpen looks solid with the duo of Gonzalez, Soriano long departed and replaced by older versions in Takashi Saito and closer Billy Wagner. However the veteran duo must prove their health over the whole season and they are no lock given Saito is now 40 yrs of age and Wagner, like Tim Hudson is returning from Tommy John surgery. Last year, the one failing of the club was the offence. They simply didn’t fire.

They traded for Melky Cabrera in the off-season but with the decision to start phenom Jason Heyward in right field, Cabrera is likely a fourth outfielder. They signed Troy Glaus but he’s coming back from injury and no lock to produce. With good health, the Braves’ line-up looks as good as any on paper but the health of Jones and Glaus plus how Heyward adjusts to major league level is the key to the Braves season. Should those three put up production as they are capable of, they will give the Phillies a run for their money.

Florida Marlins
The Marlins have enjoyed something of a quiet off-season with just the contract extension of ace Josh Johnson and the resigning of Dan Uggla notable news. They’re simply a year older and with majority of the roster coming from the farm system, the question mark is experience. The rotation looks scarily promising once again with ace Josh Johnson, a likely better Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez, Rick Vandenhurk, and Chris Volstad all very talented pitchers and with experience under their belts. The bullpen has a turnover of sorts with Leo Nunez the new closer and young arms expected to step up and support the most experienced arm out of the bullpen.

The line-up is anchored once again by Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla with the talented Cameron Maybin, Chris Coghlan and Gaby Sanchez all set to enjoy productive seasons. Can they win the division? They have the potential to do so. Can they challenge the Phillies? They have the potential to do so!! If that sounds like too much fence sitting, then the definitive answer is no! Alan Hansen famously once said, “You don’t win anything with kids” and he’s right in many ways. As talented as this crop of Marlins are, they’ll need a lot of breaks if they are to make the post-season in a division as competitive as this. They should have a winning season but that won’t be enough to get them the division or the wild card.

Washington Nationals
The Nationals are well into their rebuilding period but look a lost cause at MLB level. In their line-up they possess corner infielders in Adam Dunn and Ryan Zimmerman the cornerstones of the line-up. But asides from the duo there’s not much to get excited about in Washington. Their pitching has a patched up look to it with Jason Marquis the ace and supported by lefties John Lannan and Scott Olsen but the bullpen does represent an improvement over last year’s edition when they blew over 25 games by the all star break. The one big hope for the Nationals is the possible arrivals of Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen in the majors and the June draft when they, once again possess the number one draft pick that has phenom Bryce Harper’s name written all over it.

New York Mets
For the New York Mets 2009 was a nightmare with injuries derailing their entire season. The likes of Reyes, Delgado, Beltran, Wright, Santana, Putz, Maine, Perez, Niese all spent significant time on the DL. After a blown divisional lead in 2008, following 2007, the Mets approached the 2009 as one of the favourites for the World Series having retooled their bullpen and were 6/4 joint favourites for the division. Fast forward to 2010 and the Mets are barely an afterthought when the discussion on the World Series starts. Has the Mets deteriorated that badly or had the “experts” simply over-rated the Mets in 2009?

The answer is neither. In the off-season, GM Omar Minaya chose to retain his belief that the core group of players who headed into 2009 as one of the favourites should be amongst the favourites once again given one caveat: good health. Thus in the off-season, he chose to simply add Red Sox slugger Jason Bay and added Kelvim Escobar and Ryota Igarishi to the bullpen mix. However, already in Spring training, Carlos Beltran had undergone surgery on his knee preferring to trust world renowned surgeon, Richard Steadman over the “dodgy” Mets medical team sparking a war of words between Scott Boras (agent) and the Mets, Francisco Rodriguez came down with “pink eye” and Jose Reyes was sidelined indefinitely with a “hyperactive thyroid gland”. Not quite the start to an injury free season the Mets have wished for!

As it stands, the rotation does have the same question marks to answer but those questions relate to health rather then ability. Should the Mets starting five of Santana, Perez, Pelfrey, Maine and Niese enjoy a health free season, they have the ability to pitch the Mets deep into the pennant race. The bullpen would be a weak link given the slight decline in K-Rod’s performance and the lack of an experienced set-up man. The line-up is the same as before with Danny Murphy replacing Carlos Delgado and Jason Bay bringing his bat to left field. In contrast to previous seasons, the Mets’ problem in the absence of Reyes and Beltran is the presence of a big left-handed bat.

Deep into the off-season, I had thought the Mets should seriously contemplate a rebuilding period but that was as a fan. In the cold light of day with my money on the line, Omar Minaya’s view is the most logical one and simply requires a leap of faith in his original judgement as agreed by some many “experts” prior to the 2009 season.

For me, the Phillies look far too strong for the rest of the NL East and should take the title but at 8/13 they hardly represent value! Instead a bet that catches the eye is Expekt’s offer of 2.58 about the Mets to finish above the Braves. If Omar’s assertion that the Mets will be thereabouts come the end of the season given good health is correct, they shouldn’t be that big a price in a match bet with the Braves who has gotten older in the bullpen whilst having traded a durable arm in Vazquez.

Pick: Philadelphia Phillies Alt: New York Mets

Pick: NL East Match Bet: New York Mets to finish above Atlanta Braves in the regular season 2pt win 2.58 Expekt 2pt win

Next time we continue a look at the rest of the NL in the Central and West and conclude the series with a look at the big picture.

Giant_Causeway