MLB Preview Part Four

By Giant_Causeway

NL Central
Unlike last year, this is a much more balanced division then in recent years. As with last year, there are plenty of teams turning to the youth movement and creating exciting line-ups and the key to deciphering the Central will be in the old saying: pitching win championships…

St. Louis Cardinals
In 2009, the St. Louis Cardinals were the runaway winners of the division having seen the return of Chris Carpenter and the acquisition of Matt Holliday galvanise their ballclub at two stages of the season. Then they folded tamely to the Los Angeles Dodgers reminding fans that despite their one-two punches with the ball and bat in Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday, the old saying: anything can happen in a short series applies. That’s not to say the Cardinals are better then the Dodgers but it was disappointing to see the Cardinals fold the way they did. In the off-season, they did retain the services of Matt Holliday but lost Joel Pinero to free agency.

A glance at the roster reveals one major worry and that is depth. The outfield of simply Matt Holliday, Colby Rasmus and Ryan Ludwick with no viable alternatives is worrying whilst the pitching looks thin beyond Carpenter and Wainwright. On paper their starting line-up and starting pitching are as good as any in the NL Central but as we saw with the Mets last year, anything can happen with injuries and they are vulnerable to one single injury.

Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs approaches the start of a new decade still searching for their first World Series since 1908 and it doesn’t get any easier with the likelihood of any of the heavyweights of the AL East lying in wait. But to get there they’ll need to negotiate a competitive division that sees the reigning champions retain much of the core of the 2009 edition, the retooling Brewers and the youthful and talented Reds all harbouring serious aspirations of the NL Central title.

In 2009 the Cubs were hot favourites for the NL Central and looking at their roster back then it was easy to see why. They looked to have a surplus of fine pitching with Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, Rich Harden, Carlos Zambrano with a healthy competition for the fifth spot in Jeff Samardjiza, Scott Marshall and Aaron Heilman but the rotation front four all saw time on the DL with Zambrano in particular his volatile self. Fast forward to 2010 and Harden has gone. In his place is Randy Wells and a motley crew of journeymen, expensive flop (Carlos Silva) and rookies vying for the fifth spot. Number one starter Carlos Zambrano holds the key and off-season reports of his improved conditioning only portends to a fit and healthy Zambrano possibly maturing into his role as the ace of the staff. The bullpen looks solid with Marmol assuming closing duties and Grabow, Marshall all lending their support along with several young arms.

The big story in Chicago was the presence of Milton Bradley and the efforts of GM Jim Hendry in trying to trade him. The departure of perennial malcontent Milton Bradley eventually occurred as the Cubs managed to trade with the Mariners followed by the addition of Marlon Byrd and the possible elevation of exciting shortstop prospect Starlin Castro to the majors at just 19 yrs of age. The line-up looks strong and power packed with Lee and Ramirez anchoring a deep line-up that contains Alfonso Soriano, Marlon Byrd, Kosuke Fukudome, Ryan Theriot, Geovany Soto and Mike Fontenot. With their pitching and their hitting, they should be slap bang in the race for the NL Central.

Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers had big pitching questions to answer in the quality and depth of their pitching rosters in 2009 and failed miserably with only Yovani Gallardo emerging with any credit. However in the off-season, the Brewers retooled with the signings of veteran left-handers, Randy Wolf and Doug Davis from free agency. With last season’s holdovers in David Bush, Gallardo and Jeff Suppan/Manny Parra they have the experience to hang with the Cardinals and Cubs in the pennant race but can that experience translate into quality pitching as well as quantity?

The bullpen should replicate their excellent performance with Trevor Hoffman, the saves record holder continuing to pitch effectively and backed by experienced set-up men. The Brewers’ offence is impressive with Braun and Fielder once again the anchors of a youthful looking line-up. They should be thereabouts and should contend through into September but the question is: have they done enough to bridge the difference in depth and quality of the starting pitching of 2009? My instincts says no. Even if they should find themselves in a pennant race deep into August, can they handle the pressure of a potential 4 way fight for the NL Central title?

Cincinnati Reds
The Reds are quite possibly most baseball observers’ idea of a sleeper team. They have a shrewd GM in Walt Jocketty who is leaning with the youth movement and have some exciting players in their line-up in Jay Bruce, Joey Votto and the emergence of Drew Stubbs in the outfield. Offensively they have plenty of depth and with a home park suited to hitting they should have no problems scoring runs. To claim the NL Central, the big test is pitching. Their pitching does have a useful look to it but like the Brewers, they have to prove they can hang tough with the Cubs and the Cards all the way through to October.

Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey form a useful front four with the possible emergence of Aroldis Chapman as the fifth starter in the absence of Edison Volquez. But out of the first four names, none are real aces of staff and the wild card could be Aroldis Chapman. He seemingly has it all but he must still prove he can handle major league line-ups on a regular basis as well as prove he can handle a season’s workload after plenty of idle time. Despite the obvious promise about the roster, I just can’t help but think they are not quite there in terms of being competitive with the Cubs and Cards over the course of a 162 game regular season.

Houston Astros
The Astros hasn’t really retooled in the offseason but instead made some very strange decisions. The worse is the swap of Jose Valverde for Brandon Lyon to a deal worth $15m over 3 years! They also signed Phillies 3rd baseman Pedro Feliz for $4.5m slightly overpaying for his services. Both those players won’t exactly enhance the Astros’ chances of October ball. The rotation is of course, headlined by Roy Oswalt with Wandy Rodriguez in close proximity. New signing Brett Myers, holdover Brian Moehler and rookie pitchers in Felipe Paulino and Bud Norris provides the support. The bullpen is arguably worse with Valverde departing for Detroit. In his place, dodgy closer Brandon Lyon takes over supported by Matt Lindstrom the former Marlins closer. On balance, despite some useful players in the line-up, they do not look like they could finish in the top 4 of their own division as I rank the Cards, Cubs, Reds and Brewers all higher then the ageing Astros.

Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates are in rebuilding mode yet again but this time they’ll be heading into the season with virtually a rookie line-up and pitching staff. Last year they traded stars like Jack Wilson, Freddy Sanchez, Adam LaRoche, John Grabow as they look to completely rip their side apart in a bid to not only save money but to replenish a barren farm system. At major league level they have simply a young line-up that has nowhere near the same pizzazz as the Marlins but there are some useful players in the line-up. Young centerfielder Andrew McCutchen is the player to watch in the outfield. The problem for the Pirates is the same as with any other sides: pitching. Paul Maholm and Zack Duke headline an uncertain rotation with plenty of prospects vying for rotation spots. The bullpen lost Matt Capps as the Pirates did not tender a contract but they gained Octavio Dotel who has plenty of experience. The supporting cast have question marks surrounding their consistency and command.

Looking at the markets, the correct play would be to lay the Cardinals but given the lack of liquidity in the market the pick has to be the Chicago Cubs.

Pick: Chicago Cubs Alt: St Louis Cardinals

Pick: NL Central: Chicago Cubs to win the division 2.5pt win 4.5 Stan James

NL West
This was a very competitive division in 2009 despite the hot start the Los Angeles Dodgers had. The Colorado Rockies and San Francisco Giants also led the way in an enthralling wild card chase before the Rockies surged clear almost catching the free-falling Dodgers for the NL West. But the NL West is not only about the youth movements of all teams but also the pitching. The likes of Clayton Kershaw, Dan Haren, Brandon Webb and Tim Linecum would walk into most rotations. With the Diamondbacks set to rebound after a bitterly disappointing 2009, this look set to be a four way fight for the NL West.

San Diego Padres
The Padres are a club strictly in rebuilding mode following the trade of ace Jake Peavy last summer to the Chicago White Sox. Previous they had gone through an ownership crisis with the owner needing to sell the club for his impending divorce. A new ownership group headed by former super agent Jeff Moorad brought hope and a new GM in Jed Hoyer but in the here and now, there is little to excite in San Diego as their farm system is virtually barren and the possibility of franchise face Adrian Gonzalez and star closer Heath Bell being traded a real possibility in the coming season.  They’ve had a quiet off-season and they actually surprised many by making a hot start last season only to fade. If anything is certain, they should be the basement boys of the NL West this year.

Colorado Rockies
The Rockies were the hottest team in baseball in the second half of the season when they almost caught the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West in the final week of the season despite having been 15 games behind back in May. Since the appointment of Jim Tracy, they simply took off led by Ubaldo Jimenez who assumed the mantle as the ace of the staff. This off-season they have simply renewed contracts whilst retaining much of the core of the 2009 roster. They’ve a mixture of young and experienced players and the front office have come out with a very useful bullpen and rotation. Aaron Cook is the long time veteran of the staff with ace Jimenez, Jason Hammel, Jorge De La Rosa and returning ace Jeff Francis to round out the rotation with the very exciting Joulys Chacin in the minor leagues. The line-up looks potent with Todd Helton and Troy Tulowitzki anchoring the infield and line-up supported by exciting young bats in Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gonzalez and Ian Stewart. In this division, anything is possible but comparatively to their rivals, they proved in 2009 they now have the quality and the depth to more then match their divisional rivals.

Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks were bitterly disappointing in 2009 from the moment ace Brandon Webb broke down in the first game. They hired a manager with no previous managing experience to bring together a group of young positional players who have under performed well below expectations. With Brandon Webb and Danny Haren atop the rotation, they have as good a one-two punch as any other team but with one caveat, how healthy is Webb? They reinforce the front two of the rotation with the trade for Edwin Jackson as well as Ian Kennedy from the New York Yankees but lost young fireballer Max Scherzer in those trades. The bullpen looks deeper with the addition of experienced set up men Aaron Heilman and Bob Howry as well as Blaine Boyer. With Chad Qualls as the closer they look more solid then in 2009. The line-up remains virtually the same but there is huge potential for every person in that line-up to improve. The likes of Jackson, Drew, Young, Upton and Montero have much more improvements as they mature. The power comes from Mark Reynolds who continues to hit home runs but still strike out far too much. But as long as his power numbers stand up, he’ll likely anchor the line-up. All in all, there are far better and stronger contenders then the Diamondbacks who need to prove their young players are indeed major league players.

San Francisco Giants
The Giants look to have one of baseball’s best pitching staff in repeat Cy Young winner Tim Linecum, Matt Cain, Barry Zito, Jonathan Sanchez, Todd Wellemeyer and Madison Bumgarner the rotation candidates and the bullpen headed by closer Brian Wilson with Affeldt and Romo as setup men. The problem for the Giants this season is the same as last year: they are playing in a pitcher’s park with a line-up that does not possess the power of teams from the Bonds era. They do have some good players but I cannot label any of them as an impact hitter, someone to carry the offence when the chips are down. Pablo Sandoval did emerge as a genuine power threat whilst Mark DeRosa signs from the Cardinals. However they still need more and the one plus for the Giants is their pitching. Should they find themselves thick into the pennant race; the front office will need to reinforce an offence that simply does not induce fear into opposition pitchers.

Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are a frustrating case study in bad ownership. Their philosophy of developing youth and refusing to part with top prospects for major leaguers started to bear fruit in the last couple of year but unfortunately for fans, ownership’s refusal to back the farm system with financial freedom has held them back. The likes of Kershaw, Martin, Kemp, Ethier, Loney, DeWitt, and countless other talented young players have risen through the system but they have needed a push in terms of signing more established players like last year when they really should’ve signed the likes of Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay. However the previous problem in free agency where Colleti had been embarrassingly inept has been resolved by the owners’ refusal to spend. Whilst he has been very creative in dealing for the likes of Manny Ramirez and Casey Blake in recent years, he paid for those signings by parting with top prospects.

However, their line-up looks very exciting with Furcal providing the energy and speed atop the line-up and Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and Manny Ramirez providing the fireworks. But their pitching is a big problem with only Billingsley, Kershaw and Kuroda as locks. Vicente Padilla is an interesting pickup given he performed well after his arrival late last summer but his volatile nature is unpredictable and nothing is certain. There’s lack of experience at the top end of the rotation and a lack of depth despite the Dodgers’ quality farm system. The bullpen, however figures to be a huge strength and closer Jonathon Broxton and George Sherril headlines a deep bullpen made up of live young arms. Their core means they’ll likely be thereabouts at the business end of the season but with ownership issues hanging over them, they’re not making it easy for themselves.

Conclusion
For me, the team with the least question marks are the Rockies with their roster looking generally well rounded. They possess the pitching and the offense to hang with all the contenders.

Pick: Colorado Rockies Alt: Los Angeles Dodgers

Pick: NL West: Colorado Rockies 3.5 Paddy Power 2pt win

World Series
Every year it gets tougher to pick a World Series winner with different winners in every year bar the Boston Red Sox since the turn of the millennium. At first glance, it really is that hard to see past any of the three contenders in the AL East in the shape of the reigning World Series champions New York Yankees and their East Coast rivals in the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox. Of the possible AL matchups, the Los Angeles Angels and the Chicago White Sox are my picks and they have the capabilities to beat any of their rivals in a short series. The one thing all those five contenders have is strong pitching.

From the NL sides, the Phillies and the Colorado Rockies are strong contenders and both have the pitching and offence to hang with the big boys in the AL East. At this moment, nothing stands out and given the amount of interest I have in the divisional markets, it is perhaps best left alone for now.

One market that catches the eye is BWIN’s match bet for most innings. Verlander to pitch more innings then Jurrjens with 0.5 start at 1.85 is far too good to turn down given Jurrjens’ health worries.

Pick: Justin Verlander to pitch more innings then Jurrjens +0.5 1.85 Bwin 3pt win

Giant_Causeway