MLB 2009 Season Preview



We have ourselves another thrilling season of baseball to look forward to. Firstly, we are witnessing a transitional period in terms of player personnel with legends like Schilling, Clemens, Maddux, Thomas all retiring and veterans struggling to find work with teams getting younger. With a MLB-wide shift to the fountain of youth, there appear to be more parity then ever before. The number of available free agent in the market bears witness to the change.
Yes, the economy has played a part in teams valuing young talents over experience, but whilst the demand for pitching is greater then ever before, teams seem to be learning from past mistakes. Apart from the Yankees, all teams have essentially limited the number of years in negotiations.

Of course, money still talks in the grand scheme of things but even the Yankees, Bosox and Mets, three of the traditional big spenders are leaning to youth for parts of their rosters. Even in the pursuit of free agents, the Mets offered their version of market value for Frankie Rodriguez and Derek Lowe (way below what they asked for) whilst dismissing Oliver Perez’s request for a 5 year deal. The Bosox tried to offer Mark Teixeira a contract similar to the one they gave Manny Ramirez years back and baulked at the thought of paying more. Only the Yankees continued their trend of paying more then they had to. They bid against themselves for CC and guaranteed a fifth year to AJ Burnett. The Yankees always had the upper hand in the Teixeira signing as Boras was always going to check in with the Yankees before a final decision and the Yankees duly obliged. It is worth noting, despite the Yankees spending spree, they are still set to start season with a lower payroll then the $209m they spent last year. The enormity of their spending spree the past 2 seasons can be explained by a look at next year’s free agent class. Apart from Harden, Bedard and Lackey (all pitchers), there isn’t much to entice the Yankees to spending next year and with their farm system deeper then in previous years, they can begin the process of building a farm system to rival Boston’s.

The dwindling economy promises even more trades then ever before with teams like Detroit (only half of last year’s season ticket holders have renewed their subscription), Toronto (worries regarding the Canadian dollar) and the smaller market teams keeping an eye on their revenue with genuine thoughts of trading their stars to dump salary or accelerate a rebuilding period. In the off-season, the D-Backs declined to offer salary arbitration to Adam Dunn, thus forfeiting high draft picks for fear Dunn actually pick up the option. That is a prime example of how many teams operated in the off-season. Teams are also making firm decisions on their fading stars. Last year, Frank Thomas was released by the Bluejays despite the Bluejays having to pay up the full value of the contract. This year, Gary Sheffield and Andruw Jones are the latest big names dumped with the Tigers and the Dodgers having to pay $14m and $18m (deferred). The fact they’d rather release them then stick them on the bench is indicative of their declining talent.

There is also a shift to the old fashioned small ball philosophy. Since the steroid scandal highlighted by the high profile cases of McGwire, Clemens, Bonds, and A-Rod, you have to envision there would’ve been a decline in the number of home runs hit in the last two seasons. There were 103 positive steroid tests taken a few years ago (only the name of A-Rod has been leaked) but how widespread the problem is, we cannot accurately fathom. Sluggers like Sammy Sosa, Gary Sheffield, Jason Giambi, Rafael Palmeiro and Miguel Tejada were other high profile cases as well as HGH cases in Andy Pettite and Paul Byrd. The declining home runs number of several players like Derrick Lee and Paul Konerko could be just the result of getting older. Unfortunately for those players of the same generation who have kept themselves clean, the stigma of steroid abuse will linger long after their retirements. A fine case in point is Eric Gagne, the record breaking consecutive save closer. After testing was introduced, his performance showed a steep decline with the Rangers, Boston and the Brewers all discovering he was not the Eric Gagne they saw in LA.

The New York teams also have new stadiums opening this season and it may pay to keep an eye on how each ballpark plays. There’s already a stink in New York with CitiBank still committed to paying the sponsorship deal despite governmental controls and the Yankees stadium partly funded by the tax payers.

There is also the possibility of certain Hall of Famers, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine and Randy Johnson playing their last seasons. Randy Johnson, should he reach 300 wins barring injuries, could be the last man to reach that milestone in a long time.

MLB also welcomes new ownership in San Diego and Chicago whilst Washington (Stan Kasten) and Florida (Jeffrey Loria) faces challenges of differing sorts in establishing credibility and a new stadium respectively. The Twins will also be playing their last season at the Metrodome. All in all, a fascinating season to savour. Let’s play ball!!!



AL East

Pick: Bosox Alt: Rays

This is the toughest division in the AL by far with Bosox, Yankees and Rays all vying for the post season. They say pitching wins championship and all three have that in spades. The Yankees has splashed the cash whilst Bosox has shrewdly added even more depth to an already deep rotation and bullpen. The Rays hasn’t made such a move relying on their excellent farm system to bolster their rotation.

Offensively, the Yankees have the best line-up despite A-Rod’s injury woe. They should be among the top scorers in MLB. The one big worry has to be the health of their aging stars. Matsui, Jeter, Posada and Damon are not getting younger whilst Rivera has been so durable and has display admirable longevity and he will be vulnerable to injuries. They could always move Joba in the closer role but even so, on paper, they lack the strength in depth in the bullpen. However, Joe Giradi is one of the better managers at handling the bullpen and should be able to work the oracle in keeping his arms fresh throughout the season. One also has to doubt how CC will adjust to life in the Big Apple. He made it clear he’d prefer California but the Yankee dollar scared off all the West coast competition and the Yankee won the race for his signature almost by default. Not to mention the sheer amount of innings he has pitched over the last two years would surely take its toil on a body that is not in the best of shape.

The Bosox will be relying on Lowell, Big Papi and injury-prone JD Drew to lead their offence that also has to carry a declining Varitek and Lugo. But with their deep quality pitching they may not need the runs they have scored in the past and they have some intriguing prospects such as Lars Anderson, the power hitting 1st baseman and should they need to, they certainly have the trading chips to make an impact trade at the deadline.

The Rays will surely score more runs then they managed last season with the addition of Burrell and a wiser and older line-up that featured rookies Longoria and BJ Upton. The one big question mark is the lack of a bona fide shut down closer in the mould of Papelbon and Rivera. They also have to exorcise the recent trend of past World Series contenders who have flopped the next season with the Rockies and Tigers both recording abysmal seasons.

I haven’t mentioned the Bluejays or the Os and intend no disrespect to them but with the Os in rebuilding mode and the Jays rotation injury ravaged, I cannot see how they can hang with the big three.

So what’s the deciding factor? All three rotations are as good as each other. The Yankees’ aging stars surely cannot sustain the level of performance and despite the signings of CC and AJ Burnett; they still lack the scope of the Rays and Bosox to improve. The Rays may be vulnerable to the classic “sophomore slump” syndrome from their young stars but they still have the most scope to improve. The worry is the lack of a shut down closer. The Bosox has the deeper bullpen and plenty of depth in the farm system with Daniel Bard, Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden plus excellent insurance in John Smoltz who should return in June. Not to mention Justin Masterson can always be returned to a starting role in the unlikely event the above names all encounter difficulties.  One doubt about the Bosox remains, is its offence but with the possibility of salary dumps occurring in the summer, there should be plenty of talent available on the market and the likes of Mags Ordenez, Matt Holliday, Vernon Wells and Todd Helton could all be available. For me, since the baseball season is 162 games long plus the playoffs, the depth that the Bosox possess sways the vote to Beantown with the Yankees in the wild card spot.

2008 AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST
TEAM	RECORD	HOME	AWAY
Tampa Bay	97-65	57-24	40-41
Boston	95-67	56-25	39-42
NY Yankees	89-73	48-33	41-40
Toronto	86-76	47-34	39-42
Baltimore	68-93	37-43	31-50

AL Central

Pick: Twins Alt: Chisox

A hugely competitive division with all teams unable to be written off. The Indians start as the favourites but they face serious questions regarding their rotation. Their general 21.0 quote for the World Series is laughable given they must progress past the beasts in the East, the likely AL West contender, the Angels AND likely have to finish atop a competitive division. Their bullpen and offence should be fine but they will be relying on Cliff Lee replicating his 2008 season (22-3) and Carmona, Reyes, the injury-prone Pavano and a likely lefty 5th starter in Laffey or Jackson. Yes, Jake Westbrook returns in June but after Tommy John surgery, it is hard to expect him to slot in to the form he showed pre injury.

The Royals are still in rebuilding mode but are not the no-hopers of recent years with a youngish line-up and the pitching headlined by Grienke and Soria. They’ll likely fall short in the pressure cooker of the pennant race.

The Tigers embarrassingly finished last in 2008 with major issues in their bullpen and the murderer’s row line-up failing to score the runs envisioned. Curtis Granderson, the lead off man did miss playing time but that should not be the sole reason the Tigers offence flopped spectacularly. Apart from Miguel Cabrera and Magglio Ordenez, there is not a consistent power threat. Gary Sheffield has just been released with $14m left on his contract. Carlos Guillen figures to decline and the line-up does not look deep in comparison with other AL clubs. The bullpen issues are still present with Brandon Lyon as their new closer. The rotation is similar and headed by Justin Verlander but Rogers has gone and is replaced by Edwin Jackson and the investment in Dontrelle Willis looking very foolish. Galarraga will have to prove himself in his second season whilst Jeremy Bonderman, who has promised so much has yet to deliver over a full season. The one shining light is top prospect, Rick Porcello but at the tender age of 20, he is one for the future. They’ll be thereabouts but that bullpen has to be a huge worry.

The Chisox will score runs in that bandbox they call home. But they will be relying on three veteran bats in Thome, Konerko and Dye to produce. As they get older, it’s hard to expect all three vets to rebound from down years. Quentin enjoyed an outstanding year in his first season but does have it to prove he can sustain the level of hitting he established. Alexis Ramirez was a revelation but like Quentin, will have to prove he can sustain his hitting in his second season. The pitching is virtually the same with veterans Buerhle, Contreras flanked by the young Danks and Floyd and bolstered by the injury prone veteran Bartolo Colon. There has to be a question mark as to how durable the veterans will be. The bullpen returns from last year but as with most bullpens, they tend to fluctuate from year to year.

Which leads me to my pick: the Twins. One year removed from Tommy John surgery, Francisco Liriano headlines a youngish but experienced rotation with the improving Scott Baker, Glen Perkins, Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn behind him. By all reports, Liriano has added a nasty changeup to his repertoire to balance the lack of bite his slider used to have. He is certainly a more then adequate replacement for Johan Santana. The bullpen is headlined by the ever reliable Joe Nathan but does lack some depth comparatively to the Bosox. The line-up is young and vibrant with only shortstop a question mark. The bat of Delmon Young promises to be much more then the contact hitter we saw last year, the bats of Morneau, Mauer (misses first few weeks of season), Cuddyer, Kubel and Crede offering depth to the line-up that has the speedy Span and Gomez as primary lead off options. With Gardenhire as their manager, he should be able guide them into the playoffs once again.

2008 AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
TEAM	RECORD	HOME	AWAY
Chi White Sox	88-74	53-28	35-46
Minnesota	88-74	53-28	35-46
Cleveland	81-81	45-36	36-45
Kansas City	75-87	38-43	37-44
Detroit	74-88	40-41	34-47

AL West

Pick: Mariners Alt: Angels

The easy pick would be the Angels and at varying prices from 1.53 to 1.33 they seem to have it all in the regular season. Their pitching is the best in the division in the rotation and arguably the bullpen whilst their offence, missing Teixiera and long time Angel, Garrett Anderson, should continue to score runs with their small ball philosophy. Vladimir Guerrero and new signing Bobby Abreu will be relied on to drive in the runs. One thing they must decide on during the season is, whether their corner infield bats are big enough to carry the positions and the club to the promised land of late October. Chone Figgins is a useful player who is more contact and speed then power whilst Kendry Morales will have to prove himself during his first full season in the major.

The As are most people’s idea of a live outsider in the AL but whilst they have retooled offensively, their rotation is a work in progress. With Dana Eveland only having a year’s major league experience and Dushscherer having health issues with his arm considered locks, that is a scary thought for the As fans as they look at their rotation. Dallas Braden and Sean Gallagher should round out the rotation by default with the injured Gio Gonzalez a possible returnee later in the season. Plus the fact that Billy Beane is likely to trade the likes of Holliday, Cabrera and even Giambi if the As do not stay competitive by the July trading deadline. They do have the exciting Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill as possibles but it is asking a lot of two 20-21yr olds to carry the pitching to hang with the Angels.

The Texas Rangers are strictly in rebuilding mode but as always with the Rangers, their main problem is pitching, pitching and more pitching! Having traded away Young, Gallaraga and Volquez in recent years, they have relied on Millwood, Padilla to headline their rotation. There is a new wave of exciting hurlers coming through but that is for the future. They did show excellent offensive potential posting a winning record after a horrible 9-18 start but whether they contend this year starts and ends with pitching. If Millwood, Padilla and McCarthy can put together an acceptable and consistent standard of pitching, they could well surprise a few people.

The Mariners are my idea of a real dark horse. Last year they were among the favourites for the AL division but alongside the Tigers, they inexplicably flopped big time. A new regime has taken over with a new GM and manager. The personnel is very much unchanged apart from the offence. The rotation has the look of something solid with Bedard, Hernandez atop the rotation supported by Washburn and Silva and some quality 5th starter candidates. The bullpen saw the departure of JJ Putz but Brandon Morrow provide an able option to close should he return to the bullpen. The Mariners big problem has always been their offence. Hitting in Safeco Park is a tough ask for even the most powerful hitters. Richie Sexson and Jose Vidro have gone and in that, that is a bonus in itself as both were next to useless! But Raul Ibanez is a big loss as his bat carried the offence at times allied with his leadership skills. In their places, Ken Griffey Jr returns to his spiritual home as the DH whilst the trade for Gutierrez and Chavez gives the Mariners an excellent defensive outfield but average production. There is no big power bat in there. Beltre and Griffey Jr are as powerful as it gets for the Mariners. With Ichiro, Chavez and the pair of middle infielders, it seems they will try to play small ball. Looking at the line-up, it’s not deep and there’s a big gaping hole over at 1st base. Given the dimension of Safeco Park, they have made the right decision in going for speed and agility in the line-up. For me, they could surprise a few teams. The 23.0 at Ladbrokes is tempting.

2008 AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST
TEAM	RECORD	HOME	AWAY
LA Angels	100-62	50-31	50-31
Texas	79-83	40-41	39-42
Oakland	75-86	43-38	32-48
Seattle	61-101	35-46	26-55

NL East

Pick: Phillies Alt: Mets

Like their AL counterparts, the East in the NL figures to be a brutal division with the Phillies, the reigning World Series champions, the Mets and the Braves all harbouring serious claims at the NL title. Throw in a useful looking Nationals line-up and the ever precocious Marlins, you have fascinating battle for Eastern supremacy. The Phillies has swopped Pat Burrell for Raul Ibanez and other then the pair of moves mentioned they hadn’t needed to make wholesale changes with the rotation and bullpen looking deep. They have everything in place for a repeat for the NL title with the left handed bats of Utley, Howard, and Ibanez set to anchor the line-up. They do have one minor quibble and that is the lack of a big right handed bat in the everyday line-up.

The Mets, on the other hand had to revamp their bullpen after they blew 25+ saves. K-Rod, JJ Putz and Green will anchor the backend of the bullpen with several flops shown the door. The rotation does have question marks to answer but they should be fine as a unit with the two lefties in Santana and Perez set to anchor the rotation. The line-up is the same as before with Danny Murphy set to be the left fielder for the season. The back of the line-up lacks a right-handed bat with Church, Murphy and Schneider left-handed. As with the Phillies, a right- handed bat would be nice though the Mets’ line-up appear more balanced with the presence of Wright and switch hitters in Reyes, Castillo and Beltran.

The Braves have rebuilt their rotation with only Tom Glavine and Jair Jurrgens on the roster last season. Tim Hudson is out for the season but the Braves promptly solidified their rotation with Derek Lowe and Javier Vasquez along with Japanese free agent Nawakami. The bullpen is solid with the triumvirate of Gonzalez, Soriano and Boyer as good as any. The one question mark is the centre field position. With good health, the Braves’ line-up looks as good as any but the CF position does need to be clarified. Jordan Schaefer, the highly regarded prospect has long been earmarked for the role but given it would be his rookie season, they should expect average production.

The Nationals actually possess a potentially useful looking line-up with some useful looking pitchers in the rotation and bullpen. John Lannan and Scott Olsen will head the rotation with their durable left arms whilst prospects, Jordan Zimmerman whose pinpoint command in the minors should translate to the majors, Shairon Martis who pitched a no hitter at the WBC in 2006 (vs Panama) at just 19 yrs old and Colin Balester, a 22yr old RHP should acquit themselves well whilst Daniel Cabrera could find the Nationals ballpark more to his liking away from the bandbox of Camden Yards and the stacked line-ups of the AL. For me, they will definitely improve on last year’s showing and I would not be surprised if they weren’t too far away from .500. With the possibility of Stephen Strasbourg signing as the no.1 draft pick, the future looks brighter. They will try to hang with the leaders before fading. One thing, they released Shawn Hill who looked a useful pitcher and he would surely have contributed and provided the pitching with some measure of depth. Considering they have $10m committed to two first basemen not to mention Adam Dunn who can also play first, how Jim Bowden hung on to his job for so long is amazing!

The Marlins have retooled yet again. Trading major leaguers such as Gregg, Jacobs, Olsen and Willingham for yet more prospects. The scary thing is, despite the loss of the above names, they figure to be as strong, if not stronger. The rotation looks scarily promising with Johnson, Sanchez, Miller, Nolasco and Volstad all very talented pitchers. The bullpen has a nice blend of youth and experience with Scott Proctor, Leo Nunez and Calero all bolstering some useful live arms.

For me, the Braves are very interesting contenders but they will need Chipper Jones to stay healthy which is not a lock, given his injury record. Jeff Francoeur will need to prove he does indeed possess a major league bat after posting below average numbers in his sophomore season. The Marlins and Nationals will definitely bloody some noses and figure to be thereabouts until around the all-star break. The Mets and Phillies have competed for the title the last two years and I just take the Phillies to edge the Mets yet again. The Mets may insist that there is no psychological complex regarding the Phillies but there has to be some doubt among the players themselves come September. Yes, the bullpen looks much better and shouldn’t blow 25+ games again but the Phillies does look as strong as ever and I see no compelling reason why the Mets should finish above them.

2008 NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
TEAM	RECORD	HOME	AWAY
Philadelphia	92-70	48-33	44-37
NY Mets	89-73	48-33	41-40
Florida	84-77	45-36	39-41
Atlanta	72-90	43-38	29-52
Washington	59-102	34-46	25-56

NL Central

Pick: Cards Alt: Cubs

This is a much tougher division then people think: almost as tough as the East. With plenty of teams turning to the youth movement and creating exciting line-ups, the key to deciphering the Central is in the pitching.

The Cubs are rightly favourites for the NL Central and looking at their roster it is easy to see why. They look to have a surplus of fine pitching with Lilly, Dempster, Harden, Zambrano with a healthy competition for the fifth spot in Samardjiza, Marshall and Heilman. The bullpen looks solid with Gregg assuming closing duties and Marmol, Hart, Vizcaino, Cotts who are all proven major league relievers along with the two losers of the fifth spot competition. The offence looks strong and power packed with Lee and Ramirez experiencing a down year in 2008 and figures to rebound. The addition of Milton Bradley gives a left-handed bat to a line-up that lacked balance to unsettle opposition bullpens. The bench looks very deep with plenty of options and power.

BUT, Rich Harden's injury history, Big Z's annual decline in the latter stages of the season, and Dempster pitching in his second season after converting from a closer (the As’ Dushscherer is in a similar spot to Dempster and is experiencing injury trouble) presents enough of a question mark to provide Cubs fans doubts. Gregg is the closer and he’ll need to prove he can withstand the pressure of a pennant race. His stats indicate he must harness his command much better by cutting down on his walks. His main rival Marmol did post very good numbers last season but he did look shaky at times and could blow a few saves. The bullpen depth looks deep but Heilman, Gregg, Vizcaino and Marmol are all prone to bad outings and bad seasons. The line-up looks fantastic on paper, but the likes of Lee, Ramirez, Soriano, are a year older whilst Bradley will not be hitting in Texas. Fukudome struggled after a bright start and does not possess the power a corner outfielder should have. Tear the offence apart and there are holes in that line-up.

The Cards, on the other hand pose a fascinating question. Without Mark Mulder, Chris Carpenter and a declining Jason Isringhausen contributing to a MLB leading 30+ blown saves, just ahead of the Mets, and not to mention Pujols playing hurt, how far would the Cards have gone with the aforementioned three pitchers playing to their normal numbers? Bear in mind they finished with a winning season securing 86 wins. Surely they could've finished ahead of the Cubs?

Yes, it's dangerous to make assumptions but how many ball clubs could've withstood the loss of a bona fide ace, no.2 and handle a declining closer who lost his confidence midseason and still post a winning season? The Indians had a similar situation to the Cardinals and they finished .500. The Tigers, Padres, Mariners, the As (though self-inflicted, they traded Harden and Blanton and Street suffered loss of form) and the Braves all have had similar problems and they all finished with losing seasons. The Cards hasn't made much of an impact in the market but made a couple of pickups in Greene, shortstop and Reyes, the leftie setup man. Carpenter will return this year and with a new closer (Jason Motte) in place of Izzy, you have to think there's some improvement there. With Wainwright a year closer to his prime years and Carpenter back, that’s a one two punch to be feared.

The bullpen didn't look too clever last year but there's a good chance Duncan can work the oracle this year. With the emergence of a good looking outfield, notably, Ryan Ludwick and the Tommy John surgery on Pujols expected to render the slugger pain-free, their offence should compare favourably with most NL clubs.

The Brewers, Reds and Astros have big pitching questions to answer in the quality and depth of their pitching rosters. The Brewers’ pitching in the rotation and bullpen is average with the exception of Gallardo but packed with experience and there is a question mark over Trevor Hoffman, the saves record holder continuing to pitch effective. The Brewers’ offence is exciting though and with the addition of a likely mid season call-up in Mat Gamel, they’ll continue to rake. They’ll be slap bang in the race until the difference in depth and quality of pitching begins to tell.

The Reds are another team going with the youth movement and have some exciting players in their line-up in Bruce and Votto. Their pitching does have a useful look to it but like the Brewers, they have to prove they can hang tough with the Cubs and the Cards all the way through to October.

The Astros hasn’t really retooled in the offseason but have been quietly effective with the acquisition of Hawkins and Hampton. Both those pitchers will enhance the Astros’ chances of October ball. The line-up looks useful but they do have gaping holes at third and in the centre field where Michael Bourn, supposedly a key chip in the Lidge trade with the Phillies, does not look good enough. His biggest problem is making contact and getting on base. At third, Ty Wigginton was released with the owner downsizing his payroll. The rotation is of course, headlined by Roy Oswalt with Hampton, Backe, and Moehler. But the big wild card is Wandy Rodriguez. He has the ability to put up even better numbers then Ervin Santana as he pitches in the DH-less NL. His home and road splits were similar to Santana’s stats before Santana seemingly made the breakthrough last year. It seems strange, given the Minute Maid Park where he plies his trade is essentially a hitter’s park that Wandy’s home split should be much better then his road ERA and that points to a mental problem. If he matures in the same way Santana did, he’s in line for that breakout season and along with Oswalt, could carry the Astros deep into September. The bullpen is effective with Valverde support by Brocail, Hawkins and Geary. If they can keep the pitching healthy, they have a good fighting chance of winning the division. The question marks are at centrefield, third base, and the depth of pitching.

The Pirates are in rebuilding mode yet again but this time they appear to be making inroads in securing real quality to their farm system. At major league level they have a young and potentially good line-up anchored by one of baseball’s best catchers, Ryan Doumit. The problem for the Pirates in trying to contend now is the pitching. Maholm and Snell headline an uncertain rotation. Zach Duke and Tom Gorzelanny promised so much in recent years but remain as inconsistent as ever. The Yankees acquisitions in Ohlendorf and Karstens do not quite look the part at this level whilst the bullpen features Matt Capps as their closer. The supporting cast with the exception of Grabow have question marks surrounding their consistency and command. Case in point, Tyler Yates, formerly of Mets and Braves and Craig Hansen, formerly of the Bosox both were promising young relievers with their clubs but both struck out at both clubs performing with bloated ERA and subsequently getting traded. Whether the Pirates can successfully recycle these pitchers is debatable but there is little option available.

Maybe the Cubs will prove all those fears unfounded and win the NL Central easily and they are understandably priced at 1.5 to win. Or they could be this year's Tigers. Rightly or wrongly, in my eyes, I believe it's a two horse race in the Central with Astros, Brewers and the Reds not having quite enough depth and quality to hang with the Cubs and the Cards. The correct play would be to lay the Cubs at that price and hope those fears become realised.

2008 NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
TEAM	RECORD	HOME	AWAY
Chi Cubs	97-64	55-26	42-38
Milwaukee	90-72	49-32	41-40
Houston	86-75	47-33	39-42
St. Louis	86-76	46-35	40-41
Cincinnati	74-88	43-38	31-50
Pittsburgh	67-95	39-42	28-53

NL West

Pick: Dbacks Alt: Dodgers

Probably perceived as baseball’s weakest division but the quality of pitching remains high. The likes of Chris Young, Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb and Tim Linecum would walk into most rotations. One thing that does stand out is all the clubs in this division had turned to the youth movement 2 years ago. This is definitely baseball’s youngest division.

The Padres were a club in ownership crisis with the owner demanding payroll be reduced to pay for his impending divorce. A new ownership group headed by former super agent Jeff Moorad brings hope but in the here and now, there is little to excite in San Diego as their farm system is virtually barren and the acrimonious departure of long time closer, Trevor Hoffman still lingering. Though there are shining lights in the shape of the Peavy-Young punch atop the rotation and the continued excellence of Adrian Gonzalez that is only three players. The offence was already scarce of runs even a few years ago when they were serious challenger for the NL West crown. Chase Headley and Nick Hundley should continue to develop into good ball players but that is a couple of years from now. The rotation behind the big two is shaky with Mariners reject, Baek, Giants reject, Correia but they did make a good pick up in Shawn Hill. The bullpen is thinner with only Bell and Meredith the recognised relievers. For me, they are probably the worse MLB club you could buy and they would be wise to initiate a bidding war for the services of Peavy, Young and Gonzalez and rebuild Marlins style.

The Rockies are just two years removed from their World Series appearance and after flopping last year, they retooled quietly and have come out with a very useful bullpen and rotation. Aaron Cook is the ace of the staff with Jiminez, Marquis, Morales and Hirsh likely to round out the rotation. They’ll miss Jeff Francis who is injured. The line-up looks potent with Helton and Atkins anchoring a youthful outfield and infield. In this division, anything is possible but comparatively to their rivals, they lack the depth and quality of other contenders. Two young players to look out for are Ian Stewart and Dexter Fowler.

The DBacks has gone backwards since last June. In 2007 they were the NL West champions and seem to carry over last year. Then inexplicably, they went into freefall in the month of June after a whirlwind start. They’ve gotten younger by not resigning Randy Johnson, instead they signed Jon Garland and assigned Scherzer, the fireballing right-hander the fifth spot. He does have good potential but like all young pitchers, will need to efficiently manage his pitch count and command of his secondary pitches. With Brandon Webb and Danny Haren atop the rotation, they have as good a one-two punch as any other team. The bullpen looks deeper with the addition of Schoeneweiss and Tom Gordon. With Chad Qualls handed the closing role, a question mark abound but he is surely more reliable then previous incumbent closer, Brandon Lyon. The line-up remains virtually the same and there is huge potential for every person in that line-up to improve. Eric Byrnes experienced a down year with hamstring troubles but is as game as anybody. The likes of Jackson, Drew, Young, Upton and Montero can only improve as they mature. The one question is Mark Reynolds who continues to strike out far too much. But as long as his power numbers stand up, he’ll likely be in the everyday line-up.

The Giants look to have one of baseball’s best pitching staff in Linecum, Johnson, Cain, Zito, Sanchez and Lowry the rotation candidates and the bullpen headed by Wilson with Affeldt and Howry as setup men. The problem for the Giants is that they are playing in a pitcher’s park with a line-up that does not possess the power of teams from the Bonds era. They do have some good players but I cannot label any of them as an impact hitter, someone to carry the offence when the chips are down. The one plus for the Giants is their pitching can be sustained beyond this year. But their offence will need three or four bats to earn the credibility of, say the Mets or the Phillies.

The Dodgers are an enigma. Their philosophy of developing youth and refusing to part with top prospects for major leaguers is only now bearing fruit. The likes of Kershaw, Martin, Kemp, Ethier, Loney, DeWitt, and countless other talented young players have risen through the system. The problem is free agency where Colleti has been embarrassingly inept. Signing both Pierre and Jones as outfielders on bloated contract is silly, but signing Schmidt was even worse! They did pick up Orlando Hudson though. Their line-up looks potentially very exciting with Furcal and Hudson providing the energy and speed atop the line-up and Kemp and Manny providing the fireworks. With an extra year under their belt, the Dodgers could very well have the best line-up in the NL.

However, their pitching is a big problem with only Billingsley, Kuroda as locks. Randy Wolf is an interesting pickup but his injury history is worrying as well as the fact he is more of a no.4 starter.  Clayton Kershaw arrived last season amid the hype and duly delivered but as we saw with Phillip Hughes and Ian Kennedy of the Yankees, a lot can go wrong for a second season starter and he will need to prove himself. James McDonald is another hyped prospect but the worry is, without an overpowering fastball, his reliance on command could eventually be his demise over a long season. The bullpen is made up of young arms and with Joe Torre as manager, he cannot manage the bullpen the same way he did with the Yankees by continually burning his trusted relievers out. Broxton as closer is another question mark as he’s prone to blowing saves (he blew eight last year). It is also worth noting his ERA has steadily risen in his young career and he has already logged 241 innings in just three seasons. Not the type of numbers you want to see on a young reliever.

For me, the team with the least question marks are the D-Backs with their roster looking generally well rounded. They possess the most scope to improve out of all the contenders. They’ll need the talented young bats in the line-up to continue their learning curve and mature but having gone through the experience of last season- the highs of an amazing start and the lows of the freefall, they should be all the better for the experience. The Dodgers have the look of the Yankees last year when they relied on young pitching to get them through and we all know how that turned out!

2008 NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
TEAM	RECORD	HOME	AWAY
LA Dodgers	84-78	48-33	36-45
Arizona	82-80	48-33	34-47
Colorado	74-88	43-38	31-50
San Francisco	72-90	37-44	35-46
San Diego	63-99	35-46	28-53

World Series

It’s hard to look past the beasts of the East and at this stage there does not look to be a value play in the AL with East and the Central divisions looking competitive. The only team you could back with a degree of confidence to possibly make the post-season are the Angels but given they have fallen at the first hurdle in the playoffs in previous seasons, and failed to upgrade an offence in need of an impact bat, the general 15.0 looks about right. There are live outsiders in the AL West in the form of the Mariners and the As and the Mariners looks big at 151.0 but I cannot ignore the overriding quality of the AL East. The Rays at 17.0 could be worth an interest but they need to overcome the twin threats of the Yankees and Red Sox.

In the NL, there are a number of candidates that catches the eye with the Braves, D-Backs and Cardinals all worth a second look but respective prices of 51.0, 21.0 and 35.0 should feel much bigger, given the quality of the AL East and the hurdles they must overcome to reach the NLCS. The Braves must negotiate the brutal NL East, the D-Backs need their young bats to mature whilst the Cards need the breaks to go their way and stay healthy.

As a bettor, I tend to stay away from ante post betting. But I cannot resist a small Yankee on the divisional markets.

Pick: 1.1 Pt (0.1pt unit stake) win Yankee: The Cards (6.5), the Twins (4.2), the D-Backs (2.6) and the Boston (2.5)- "Extrabet "

0.5Pt single: The Mariners to top the AL West at 23.0 (Ladbrokes)

Giant_Causway