Bullpen Notes

Bad beats do not just exist in poker but in every sport. But in baseball, there are bad beats every day. Whether you're backing money line, totals or handicaps, you're always vulnerable to a one swing of the bat. With two weeks of the baseball season behind us, we are already tearing our hair out at the blown saves and the bullpen meltdowns. So far, the Red Sox, the Dodgers and the Mets’ bullpens have impressed but behind the top three, there is potential for carnage in every game. Last Friday was an amazing night with several games ebbing and flowing all the way to the ninth. We always pay attention to the ninth innings when assessing saves and for statistical purpose, most blown saves noted by the official scorers are of the ninth innings variety. But Yahoo’s MLB site lists blown saves in their box scores as early as the 6th or 7th innings but do not list the blown save in a player’s primary statistics. When handicapping games, we rightly pay a lot of attention to the starters but the bullpen can have much an influence on the game.

But unlike rotations where there is a degree of certainty of projected performances, bullpens tend to fluctuate from year to year. So far we have seen enough to form a picture of a bullpen’s reliability. We take a look at the bullpens of the main playoff contenders that are giving us sleepless nights.

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AL
Yankees

The ageless Mariano Rivera headlines the bullpen but aside from Brian Bruney, there is little to get excited about. What the Yankees will be worried about is the possibility of injuries. Given he has been so durable and so reliable for so long, it doesn’t bear thinking about. In Thursday’s home opener against the Indians, the bullpen suffered an embarrassing meltdown in the 7th innings, giving up nine runs with veteran lefty, Damaso Marte and Jose Veras the main culprits. There is a serious lack of depth in that bullpen and the starters will need to pitch deep into their games if they are to contend for the playoffs. One alternative to Rivera is Joba Chamberlain but he would have to be moved from a rotation that already has issues with Wang.

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox has so far enjoyed five saves from five save opportunities and have been true to their probable ranking as the number one bullpen in baseball. Jonathon Papelbon heads a deep and varied bullpen with the likes of Masterson, Delcarmen, Saito, Okajima, Lopez and Ramirez all providing a nice blend of youth and experience. Even if the bullpen encounters injuries, they have the options of a starter moving into the bullpen when John Smoltz returns from injury in June. Not to mention they have a deep farm system to call upon. The likes of Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard, and Michael Bowden all have the potential to make a K-Rod like impact on the Sox’s season.

Rays

Troy Percival took the loss to the Yankees last Wednesday night surrendering an RBI double to Johnny Damon at the top of the ninth. His best days are obviously behind him as he showed reduced velocity and spotty command of his pitches. The Rays signed another aging closer in Jason Isringhausen as a low risk gamble but he is a few weeks from being ready. In the meantime, the 9th innings will be a nervous time for Rays backers as Joe Maddon looks to operate a closer-by-committee strategy. The likes of Wheeler, Howell and Balfour could close whilst there are lefty options in Shouse and Nelson.

Tigers

The Tigers has long been hampered by their bullpen. In their World Series year, Todd Jones, Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney were the triumvirate charged with closing out games. Of the three, Jones has retired, Zumaya has been plagued with injury troubles and Rodney has been inconsistent. Not much has changed with no lock down closer or setup men and the signing of Brandon Lyon in free agency does not change things.

Twins

Joe Nathan headlines an uncertain bullpen missing the injured Pat Neshek and the departed Denys Reyes. Matt Guerrier, Luis Ayala and Jesse Crain steps up from 6-7th innings duty to the 8th innings. Already they have looked wobbly and their starters will need to step up from what they have shown so far if they are to limit the damage the bullpen can potentially inflict on themselves.

Indians

Free agent signing Kerry Wood was brought in replace Joe Borowski who proved a bust last season. Despite proving a success so far, the bullpen as a unit has managed to blow three saves from just four opportunities. Pre-season, the bullpen looks deep and useful with the likes of Betancourt, Perez, Lewis and Kobayashi all possessing closing experience but only Kobayashi has managed to compile an ERA below the benchmark of 3.00. Betancourt has a 6.14 ERA, Lewis 8.10 ERA but Rafael Perez has a 16.71 ERA. Despite their struggles the bullpen should still improve as the season wears on.

White Sox

The Chisox has the best bullpen in the division with Jenks as their closer. Bobby Jenks was the subject of trade rumours in the off-season with his declining strikeout rate a worry. He is backed by the likes of Scott Linebrink, Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, Clayton Richard and Mike MacDougal. So far they have pitched well with Jenks 3-3 in saves despite showing a 4.50 ERA.

Angels

Brian Fuentes was signed as the closer from free agency after the departure of K-Rod. He has already blown a save and Mike Scioscia, the Angels manager has already shown he does not trust Fuentes when he turned to Scot Shields to close out the Boston game. Aside from Shields, Arredondo, Speier and Oliver, there is little depth available. The Twins game on Friday night was amazing in that the bullpen blew a 5 run lead and couldn’t even cover their +1.5 handicap!!

Mariners

The Mariners lost JJ Putz in the off season to the Mets but have a potentially better arm in Brandon Morrow, a former first round draft pick. He is backed by an assortment of relievers with David Aardsma, Mark Lowe, Miguel Batista, Roy Corcaran and rookie Shawn Kelley. Whilst the bullpen does not look deep, they should improve on last year’s performance. So far they are 5-7 with Aardsma and Morrow sharing the saves amongst them.

NL

Mets

The Mets lost Billy Wagner last season to injuries and that contributed to the bullpen blowing over twenty five games. This year, whilst Wagner remains under contract, the Mets went out and splashed $37m on Francisco Rodriguez, the record breaking Angels closer. Then Omar Minaya surprised fans by engineering a trade for JJ Putz and Sean Green in a blockbuster twelve player three team trade that saw the Mets give up the likes of Heilman, Carp, Chavez, Smith and Cleto for a shutdown closer and a reliable setup man. With Minaya dumping Heilman, Sanchez, Smith and Ayala, the bullpen is almost completely changed. Only Pedro Feliciano has survived from last season’s opening bullpen roster. Wagner may return in August but does not figure to return to his closing role. The performance of rookie Bobby Parnell has been good. So far, the bullpen has not been a weakness vindicating Omar’s decision to overhaul the bullpen though JJ Putz’s declining strike rate remains a huge worry. Put simply, if Wagner returns in August fully healthy, then the Mets will have not one, but three shutdown closers to turn to in the latter stages of the game!

Phillies

Brad Lidge was absolutely perfect last season recording a 100% strike rate in saves conversion. The rest of the Phillies bullpen were also excellent with Madson and JC Romero reliable setup men. So far this season, the Phillies may be three for five in save chances but their numbers has been downright ugly. Lidge has a 9.45 ERA whilst Madson posts a 6.00 ERA. JC Romero is out until June serving a drug ban. Is this a classic World Series hangover? So far, the Phillies rank 2nd last in pitching behind the Yankees who gave up twenty four runs on Saturday!!! After last year, Lidge was always going to come down from those numbers but whilst he has saved three from four opportunities, the 9.45 ERA is worrying. Given we are just two weeks into a long season, the Phillies pitching should improve as the season wears on but the key for the bullpen to enjoy better numbers is the rotation. They must pitch better and much deeper into games to avoid wearing out the bullpen.

Braves

Last season, the Braves were among MLB’s worst bullpens with injuries decimating the entire pitching staff. It wasn’t just the rotation that lost Smoltz, Glavine, Hudson and Hampton to injuries, the bullpen lost Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano for parts of the season. This year, the bullpen has looked healthy with the triumvirate of Soriano, Gonzalez and Moylan as their latter innings options. But so far, along with Boyer who sports an ERA of 40.50, they have struggled as a unit. The 7 run lead they held against the Phillies was nullified in a nightmare 7th. Since that game, they have lacked confidence in losing series to the Marlins and the Pirates. As the season progress, they should improve but they will need to if they are to realise playoffs ambitions in a brutal division.

Marlins

The Marlins has always watched their payroll leaning to young and talented players but when they traded Kevin Gregg, their previous incumbent in the closer role, this wasn’t just about the money. They had former Mets’ prospect, Mat Lindstrom in waiting. So far he is three from four in save opportunities. He is backed by the former Royals setup man Leo Nunez and Reysol Pinto with veterans Kiko Calero and Dan Meyer providing the experience and depth to the bullpen. Despite their strong start to the season, it remains to be seen whether they can sustain their momentum. So far, their offence has been strong and minimised pressure in latter innings situations but Lindstrom and Nunez have to prove they can withstand the pressure cooker of the pennant race in a brutal division in September.

Brewers

The Brewers signed Trevor Hoffman, the all time saves leader from free agency after the retirement of Solomon Torres. He started the season on the DL (disabled list) but figures to decline from his 2008 numbers. At his age, it doesn’t bode well for the Brewers. The likes of Villaneuva, Coffey, Julio, Stetter, Riske are prone to bad seasons and outings. So far Coffey and Villaneuva are the relievers who look the steadiest of a motley crew.

Cardinals

The Cardinals blew more then thirty saves last season under the tenure of Jason Isringhausen who lost confidence mid season and actually begged to be spared further punishment!! In the off-season, Jason Motte and Chris Perez were the leading contenders with Motte getting the nod. But unfortunately he blew a three run lead on Opening Day to the Pirates and it looks as though Ryan Franklin could be the new closer. So far he has proved steady but as with closers, who knows when he will implode?!! The Cardinals bullpen does have good experience, from Kinney, Thompson, McClellan, Franklin to the two lefties in Miller and Reyes. It will be interesting to see whether Franklin, Motte or Perez is the closer come the end of the season. So far they have blown four saves from eight opportunities.

Cubs

In Spring Training, Big Lou Piniella sprang a surprise in naming Kevin Gregg as his closer. Yes, the Cubs traded for him but in just four innings, he had given up four runs, six hits and walked five and one blown save before Saturday’s scoreless two innings in middle relief. He did save a game but even then, he still gave up a run! Throw in his career 6.00 ERA against their main rivals, the Cards, this figures to be a long summer for Cubs fans. Behind him, the bullpen has experience but the likes of Heilman, Patton, Cotts, Vizcaino and Guzman has already endured bad seasons in their career and are prone to bad outings. However, there are two options in Carlos Marmol who lost out to Gregg for the closing role and Jeff Samardzija. But Marmol can be volatile at times and cannot be rated a sure thing in the 9th. He does have closing experience but he has blown three saves from twelve opportunities in his career but he is the best option the Cubs have. Samardzija is needed as insurance for a rotation that already has seen Harden suffer an injury scare against Colorado.

Diamondbacks

The Dbacks changed closer following the departure of Brandon Lyon to Chad Qualls, the former Astros setup man but whilst he does have closing experience, for every game he has saved, he has blown another!! He is backed by the likes of Pena, Rauch, Schoeneweiss and Slaten who are all useful arms at best. Given the dreadful start to the season and the injury their ace, Brandon Webb has, another long summer in Arizona is anticipated.

Rockies

The Rockies rebuilt their bullpen following the departure of Fuentes but has already looked very shaky. Manny Corpas and Street were projected to be a good one-two punch at the backend but they have not look solid. Street, in particular continues to regress from his rookie season and look very hittable at present. Embree and Grilli are the other setup men but have never been closers.

Dodgers

The Dodgers bade farewell to Saito in the off season and readily appointed young fire-baller Jonathan Broxton as the closer.  With rookie Belisario and Kuo as their 8th inning options, the Dodgers surely has the least experienced and youngest triumvirate in the majors. Throw in Troncoso, Wade and Elbert who are no older then 26 years and the veterans in Mota and Ohman and you have bullpen that features amongst the best in MLB. With the quality of the Dodgers’ farm system there are plenty of options in the minors and they possess the depth and quality to rival the Red Sox’s bullpen.

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