2010 Tennis Season Bets

By Joe Simpson

With only three weeks to go before the start of the new season the ATP stars will shortly be back into training after a minimal off season. Like last year Unibet and Skybet have offered various markets on various players’ rankings come the end of the year and there are a few that stand out. There are three players who I feel have been under-estimated by Unibet but unfortunately many have felt the same way, forcing the price to drop, but the ranking line does remain the same. However I still believe the current prices represent marginal value, although if they dropped any further then I would probably steer clear.

After successfully tipping Philip Kohlschreiber top make the top 28 last year, Unibet have surprisingly lowered the ranking cut off at 32.5. He did tail off at the end of the season to put his top 28 place in doubt but

His next couple of years could be his best on tour Philip Kohlschreiber

fortunately had a solid enough season to still make it. The indoor season that he didn’t perform in should be a strong part of the season for him, but maybe with the fact he had a long year without any breaks due to injury or rest possibly meant he was really feeling physically and mentally tired in the last couple of events. The German is without question one of my favourite players on tour to watch. A fantastic backhand, and a very solid all round game is combined with some excellent shot making and I still hold hope of the him making the top 20 within the next couple of years. He is now 26 but I still feel his next couple of years could be his best on tour, as there is no question there is room for improvement in his game, especially because he broke through relatively late on the tour. He’s now had three years ranked around the 28 mark. However the German is a player I do not want to give up on as I still firmly believe he has the potential to have a good run in a grand slam one year, which has not really happened thus far. His highlight last year was no doubt the shock victory over Novak Djokovic in the French Open third round, but he subsequently failed to build on this, something he definitely needs to work on in the coming season.

When looking at the ranking list, the players ranked from 15-23 are the players I feel he should be with. Names such as Robredo, Wawrinka and Youzhny are of a similar level to Kohlschreiber, as people believe, as he often starts as a marginal favourite against guys like Robredo. However unlike the Robredo’s he has failed to put the consistent results back to back for one reason or another, but like I said I still believe there is room for improvement and for this reason I think he’s worth backing at 1.75 to make the top 32. I feel the line should be 27.5.

Teimuraz Gabashvili is a name many people will not be too familiar with. He is a Georgian born Russian who made his way up the rankings in 2008 to finish at 68. The main reason for this climb from outside the top 100 was because he performed excellently in challengers that year. However in 2009 his ranking dropped steadily and he ended up outside the top 100, at 106. Despite this drop I certainly feel he will be pushing his way back into the top 100 come 2010. This is because in 2009 he tried to make the transition from the challenger tour to the ATP main tour, but quite obviously struggled, which means in 2010 he’ll find himself predominantly back on the challenger tour. Again the Russian is a shot maker, with weapons off both wings but he fails quite monstrously in the mental department, and is often known for his crazy outbursts. On the main tour this is simply not something a player like Gabashvili can get away with, whereas on the challenger tour despite his mental dips, he is able to get away with them to a greater extent.

Thus because of his ranking in 2010 as I’ve mentioned he’ll be back on the challenger tour. He had great success in 2008, winning four challengers. Many will be thinking that despite this success he’s clearly going to be picking up less points and this is true, but only to a certain extent. Some challengers will be worth 100 points for a win, whereas making the semi-final of a 250 ATP tour event is only worth 90 points and still requires winning five matches (including two qualifying wins). Evidently as he did in 2008, and Horacio Zeballos did in 2009, it is very possible to achieve a relatively high ranking predominantly through these lesser events, which I feel will work in his favour in 2010 for reasons noted. Again he has dropped in price but with a line of 110.5, and at a price of 1.75 I still feel he’s worth backing, as I would say he’s a player in the class of 80-90.

Paul-Henri Mathieu was completely demoralised at the end of 2009. He stated how he was severely unhappy at his failure to achieve any of his goals, and all in all was a thoroughly disappointing season for him. However despite this mediocre season for another talented French player he still finished at

A pure hitter Paul-Henri Mathieu

a ranking of 33, compared with 32 and 25 in the previous two seasons. Unibet have made their line at an astonishing 46.5. The price originally opened at 1.86 but has understandably been cut and cut again to 1.75 and 1.68 respectively. 1.68 is probably the lowest I would be backing this ranking line at, but I still feel it’s a value bet as I only see injury preventing him from making the top 46, come the end of the season. He is simply a much better version of Teimurez Gabashvili. A pure hitter off both wings, with a particularly strong backhand up the line but ultimately a player who can be devastating off both sides. Unfortunately like the Russian he fails in the mental department when it really matters, but this weakness is preventing him from making the top 25 in the world on a regular basis, not the top 40 in the world. He has more than enough class to make the top 40 with ease and should really be finishing around the 30 mark again, even if it is a mediocre season. All he is required to do to make the top 46 is to have a couple of strong 250 events which is a given for him, considering the amount of these there are in France throughout the year, with a run in a higher grade tournament at one point during the season. Again this is very much expected. The line should be probably be set at 33.5 for a player with the talent he possesses.

I feel its harder predicting which players will go the other way in the rankings. However there is one player who I feel who will drop outside the top 100 at the end of the season, that’s if he sees out the whole season. This player is now 33, and will be 34 come the end of the 2010, and has already stated his intention of retiring, before winning through to the world group knockout with Ecuador. Nicolas Lapentti has had a great career, reaching a career best of number 6 in the world, and can certainly be praised for his attitude, commitment to tennis and the services he has given to Ecuadorian tennis. However in 2009 due to his ageing body he realized he would not be able to compete in the amount of events his other fellow pros would, and coincided with injuries he picked up due to his body he only played a limited amount of matches last year. Therefore it was a fantastic achievement for him to remain in the top 100, and this was due to two strong runs to the last 16 of the Monte Carlo masters and Indian Wells, two 1000 point events. I feel that if he fails with a strong run in one of these events (which he will not be automatically be gaining entry to) he will struggle to remain in the top 100. I think he will be certainly looking to peak for Davis Cup as that will be his main goal in 2010, and I’m not sure if you will see him in too many challengers from week to week. He’s been there and done it so come September time after Ecuador’s likely play-off match in the World Group I think we may have seen the last of Nicolas Lapentti and his epic five set matches he so often plays. The line is currently 97.5 which is fair enough, but again considering he is at 97 in the rankings, and is a year older next year I would have expected the line to have been raised a little, perhaps to around the 106.5 mark.

Two Argentineans with a lot of unknowns in 2010 are David Nalbandian and Eduardo Schwank. There have been set quite low marks by Unibet at 23.5 and 102.5 respectively, both whom I feel should achieve rankings inside of these marks. However with the physical and mental unknowns, and the price cuts of these two players, both to 1.75, I think the marginal value has gone so will be resisting the urge to back the two talented Argentines.

Selections:

Philip Kohlschreiber to finish inside the top 32.5 – 4 pts - 1.75 (Unibet )

Teimuraz Gabashvili to finish inside the top 110.5 – 3 pts - 1.75 (Unibet )

Paul-Henri Mathieu to finish inside the top 46.5 – 5 pts - 1.68 (Unibet )

Nicolas Lapentti to drop outside the top 97.5 – 2 pts - 1.86 (Unibet )