Davis Cup final 2008

This year's Davis Cup final looks to be one of the tightest fought finals in years on paper. It sees the world number one; Wimbledon, French Open and Olympic singles gold medallist go up against two of the world’s top indoor players. As you see I have neglected Spain having a second singles player as at the moment Emilio Sanchez, the Spanish Davis Cup captain must be extremely worried by the form of his possible second singles player. They have a wide choice of options available but none of them are a particularly strong option. Below Nadal in the rankings comes Ferrer, followed by Verdasco, then Almagro, Robredo, Lopez and Moya. That must be worrying for Spain as Ferrer is badly out of form and I honestly don’t see him finding any form for the rest of this year, as his confidence seems to have taken a big knock of late. Has Verdasco got the mental strength to play in a Davis Cup final in the most intimidating atmosphere in the world, against two players of a higher level than himself? I very much doubt he’s the answer to Spain’s problem. Almagro, Robredo and Moya have far too many weaknesses indoors and are simply not viable options. Lopez would be my pick but then he also has question marks about his mental strength, and to play against two tough competitors who will raise their game for this final, I just can’t see him pulling off any shocks either. Therefore it would be a surprise to see the Spanish number two singles player pick up any wins, so an Argentinean win looks on the cards in reality.

Argentina have chosen to play the final on a quick indoor hard court. There were two venues proposed for the final, with Mar Del Plata getting the nod by the Davis Cup committee. It was decision that has frustrated Nalbandian as he would have preferred to have played in his home town of Cordoba where the altitude is higher, as it allows the ball to travel quicker and would have given Argentina an even further edge in beating Spain and Nadal. Following his win against Berdych in Madrid he is still bitter about the selection of Mar del Plata as the Argentine host city for the Davis Cup final next month, saying the selection played into Spain's hands. “The decision wasn't intelligent from a sporting point-of-view; we've given Spain an advantage. Particularly I think to play at higher altitude would have benefited us," said the seventh-ranked Nalbandian. “The altitude might appear as nothing but it influences. It's a lot faster; the ball jumps up more and you have to play more carefully.” Despite this slight negative for Argentina the indoor hard court surface which has been chosen by Mancini seems like a smart move.

 Nadal is clearly the best clay court player ever, and has won 115 of his last 117 clay court matches, a record which speaks for itself. However on the indoor hard courts he has shown that he is vulnerable to many. The big hitters have troubled him on hard courts in general, but the flat hitters have also troubled him, even ones who haven’t got phenomenal power. Gilles Simon showed this yesterday in the semi finals of Madrid. Losses to Seppi and Simon on indoor hard courts this year indicate his vulnerability on the surface, while two heavy defeats to Novak Djokovic, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Andy Murray and Nikolay Davydenko also show how the flattish hitters on quick lowish bouncing hard courts trouble him. They have the ability to hit hard, flat and deep to his forehand which is a winning tactic on a hard court, followed by the loopier shot to his backhand which forces him so far out of court. On a clay court he has the time to recover, on a grass court the ball doesn’t get up enough and doesn’t skid through as much when his forehand is pressed. Therefore he is able to get away with this slight area of weakness in his game. When watching his losses to these players this tactic along with the wide serve to his backhand in the forehand court are common occurrences. Nalbandian showed last year when demolishing Nadal in the final of the Paris masters (6-4 6-0, winning eight games in a row from 4-4) that he has more than enough class to fully expose Nadal’s limitations on an indoor court. Nadal’s serve plays into Nalbandian’s strength as it sits up on his backhand. Again on the clay players can’t hit through him and on the grass the second serve vulnerability is taken away due to the reaction off the court, but on a hard court against a good returner he has serious problems. I feel that on an indoor hard court, when a class player is in the form of his life there is not much Nadal can do to affect the result, unless they drop their level significantly. It’s happened numerous times in the past couple of years such as when Nalbandian absolutely thrashed him twice last October and when Nikolay Davydenko cruised past him in Miami in March. I half expect Nalbandian to do the same again in December.

There is also no reason why Del Potro can’t beat Nadal. Against Russia in the semi final he destroyed Andreev and Davydenko on clay in straight sets so his mental strength can’t be called into question here. He also has the power, the serve, the consistency and the flattish heavy hit ground strokes to beat Nadal. They both have the game to beat him, Del Potro has been in stunning form all summer and played well in Madrid when beating Nalbandian comprehensively, who himself was in great form when winning the Stockholm title the week before (on indoor hard courts). Nalbandian will be looking to peak for this final, as he has one of the best singles records in Davis cup history and is one of the most passionate players out there when representing his country. Back in 2006 when Argentina narrowly lost out to Russia 3-2 in the final, Nalbandian won both of his singles matches against Safin and Davydenko, in Moscow. Davydenko was in awesome form, and Safin has always been a great Davis cup player so those wins highlight his mental strength and his ability to raise his game when he’s really focused. It’s my personal opinion that Nalbandian is one of the few players along with possibly Roddick who would rather win the Davis Cup than a grand slam title, and I think he may well retire fulfilled if he manages to achieve this.

From the four singles matches, Argentina are heavy favourites in two (both against Ferrer assuming he plays). It would be a huge shock to see Del Potro or Nalbandian lose either of these matches as they have so much in their favour, no matter who Spain choose as their second player. In the two against Nadal depending on form going in I would say Nalbandian is a 60:40 favourite and Del Potro has a 50:50 chance. I’m being slightly generous to Nadal’s chances here as it’s a distinct possibility Argentina could win all four, while Spain haven’t got a hope of winning four. The doubles rubber is more of an even match. If it is 1-1 after day one, it is obviously the crucial rubber in the tie. Verdasco and Lopez are almost certain to team up. They have an okay Davis Cup record but I’m still not convinced by them. They are both fragile mentally, and as they will be playing in front of 12,000 screaming Argentineans so they could well crack under the pressure. The doubles rubber should be a close run thing and it’s not clear into who Argentina will play. Nalbandian will probably show as he is the class act of the team and will be the best returner on the court. However Canas, Monaco, Calleri and Acasuso have all been given chances and have failed to impress in the doubles. It was interesting to see that Nalbandian teamed up with the veteran Lucas Arnold in Madrid this week, and showed some decent form in the process so maybe that will prove to be the pairing. This is a 50:50 match in my opinion and will come down to who manages to win the crucial points, with tie breakers probably being played along the way.

The only reason both are priced at 2.0 is because of the Nadal factor. However as I’ve highlighted already he is definitely vulnerable to players of Nalbandian’s and Del Potro’s class on an indoor court. He’s also had an incredibly long season. Nalbandian showed the positives this time last year when being fresh, and he certainly won’t be fatigued coming into this final. I just hope Del Potro comes in fresh and fit as well. Nalbandian won’t be in Shanghai this year, and it’s still questionable whether Del Potro will be. Nadal will however which will further hamper his preparations for the Davis Cup final. He complained about shoulder problems this week, commenting that before his quarter final match against Lopez he had two hours of treatment on it before he played so it’s far from certain he will be in top physical shape. However Nadal is probably the toughest sportsman I’ve ever seen so I can’t write off Spain completely despite being amazed by the value on offer on Argentina. Despite this final having the capacity to be one the most thrilling Davis Cup finals ever, it also has the potential to be an anti climax with the real possibility of Argentina dominating, which makes the 2.0 on them unbelievable value. I realistically make them a 1.6 shot at most.

Joe Simpson