Champions League Preview
By Giant_Causeway

It is this time of the year when the nerves start twitching and excitement begins to build for the 2009-2010 edition of the Champions League. Like the Premier League, La Liga and Serie A, we are faced with the usual suspects in analysing the likely winners of the prestigious competition.

Last season we highlighted the English Big four of Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United, the Spanish El Classico participants in

Barcelona celebrate their 2009 victory

Barcelona and Real Madrid and the Serie A giants of Inter Milan and Juventus as the only sides worthy of serious considerations for the Champions League. Not much has changed since then. It is almost certainly safe to write off the threat of Lyon, Porto and Bayern Munich who were exposed as a class below the sides mentioned. Lyon has seen talisman Benzema depart for the riches of Madrid, Porto does not quite possess the players to consistently compete with the bigger sides and Bayern Munich, despite holding on to Ribery still has the look of a poor man’s Chelsea: big, physical and functional but ultimately lacking the world class stars Chelsea possesses bar Ribery and Robben.

In the “off-season” we haven’t seen many changes that could ultimately change perceptions that the likely winners of the Champions League are still likely to come from the Premier League, Serie A or La Liga. Real Madrid and Barcelona were the biggest spenders in the transfer market strengthening their respective squads in eye-catching fashion, the big four from England looks as strong as they ever did despite the departure of Ronaldo, Tevez, Alonso, Toure and Adebayor whilst the Serie A contenders of Inter Milan and Juventus have much to prove despite Inter pulling off a transfer coup in exchanging the over-rated (in my opinion) Ibrahimovic for Eto’o and in the process managing to pry a reported £40m from the Barcelona coffers. That’s an excellent piece of business and one that Wenger would’ve been proud of.

So which of the European sides will win the competition? We rank the prospective top eight contenders in our mini power rankings.

1. Real Madrid

This summer has seen an amazing transfer spending spree unprecedented in recent times with perhaps only Chelsea and Manchester City able to match the spending power of Real Madrid. They signed Kaka for a world transfer record of £56m and proceeded to top that by £24m with an amazing £80m bid for Ronaldo! To complement those star signings they signed Raul Albiol, Alvaro Arbeloa, Karim Benzema and Xabi Alonso. Are they now the new invincibles? No. Their defence has more questions then answers. If they

Champions League Group C Table     P W D L F A GD PTS 1 AC Milan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 FC Zurich 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 Marseille 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 Real Madrid 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

had added a world class no nonsense centre half like Carvalho, Carragher, Terry or Ferdinand they could be regarded as hot favourites for the Champions League but instead their Achilles heel in the central defensive areas prevents them from favouritism in my view.

For all their attacking talent, it would be wise to take the pragmatic view that defending is essentially much more “easier” then attacking. Of course they will most likely outscore most teams and their attacking abilities are not in question bar the usual “can the new signings gel” question but in the context of prospective oppositions like Chelsea and Barcelona how their defence holds up under the severest of examination is the big question.

New signings Arbeloa and Albiol provide an upgrade injecting youth over the aging duo of Salgado and Cannavaro, solid Champions League experience as well as versatility with last season’s holdovers in Pepe, Ramos and Marcelo all more then useful and approaching their prime years. The lack of a “name” defender is not a big drawback as Cannavaro proves that reputation is nothing without substance and the new signings are both vastly experienced Champions League defenders. With time they should be a solid unit. Alonso and Diarra will provide the defensive support from midfield and time will tell if the likes of Ronaldo and Kaka demonstrate their willingness to track back in support.

It was a tough decision to rank Real Madrid above Barcelona and Chelsea as it’s hard to forget last season’s humiliation at Anfield and Barcelona’s wonderful football. I initially had Real Madrid as low as fourth but the firepower Real Madrid has built up is simply too tough to ignore and the only question is how their defence fares against Chelsea and Barcelona but they can always win 5-4!

2. Barcelona

Barcelona were simply brilliant last season with Messi continuing to mature away from his flank role to a more central position. Already considered by many to be the best player in the world bar none, he simply stepped up another level through the middle combining technique with positional sense

Champions League Group F Table     P W D L F A GD PTS 1 Barcelona 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 Dynamo Kiev 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 Inter Milan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 Rubin Kazan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

that suggest he can become an orthodox fox in the box striker as well as his playmaking role. It wasn’t just Messi who mesmerised the football world. The likes of Iniesta and Xavi were sublime in midfield showing clever movement and quick feet in evading more physical sides.

The one big move Barcelona had made was swapping Eto’o plus a reported £40m for Ibrahimovic. One has to question the wisdom of swapping proven but difficult talent for one player just a year younger at 27 that has yet to prove himself despite the lavish praise bestowed on him. Ibrahimovic has yet to set alight the football world at the very highest level and I personally find it strange that he is so highly rated by many despite his weaknesses. For me he is a better version of Peter Crouch with questionable heading ability. Maybe I’m missing something but every time I watch Ibrahimovic play he simply does not impress. Yes he’s shown an impressive track record in Serie A but that league is much slower in pace and inferior in quality to the better and deeper leagues in La Liga and the Premier League. A better picture of his true ability is his Champions League record of just goal in appearance. How he adjusts to La Liga holds as much fascination as how Ronaldo will adapt to perceived better defending in La Liga. Does he have the mobility and pace to offer Barcelona the same cutting edge Eto’o did? Can he adapt to Barcelona’s style of play or will Barcelona have to adapt to accommodate the Swede?

Can Barcelona repeat? Their core remains intact and they should once again prove strong contenders. Despite doubts about Ibrahimovic’s true ability, there are no questions about Barcelona’s general offensive abilities. Defensively, Puyol is on the wrong side of 30 but remains an iconic figure in the heart of the Barcelona defence. We saw Pique mature last season as well as the potential of Yaya Toure as a towering and physically imposing central defender. They’ve also added depth in Maxwell and the signing of 22 yr old Dmytro Chygrynskiy for £22m. Alves and Abidal provide the primary full back options and both should play to their level of performance in a World Cup year. There is simply no reason why they cannot repeat. They will look to become the first side to win the Champions League in consecutive seasons but as they say, records are there to be broken! However, it has to be said the standard they reached last year in achieving the treble was so high there has to be a doubt whether they could reach those same heights yet again which is why I’ve ranked Barcelona second behind their fierce big spending rivals who has more scope for improvements.

3. Chelsea

Chelsea saw the arrival of Carlo Ancelotti as the successor to the hugely likeable Hiddink. They enjoyed a good start to the season and remain as strong as ever. Whilst they do have the look of a squad that is vastly

Champions League Group D Table     P W D L F A GD PTS 1 Apoel Nicosia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 Atletico Madrid 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 Chelsea 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 FC Porto 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

experienced and aging, they are not quite as old as that Milan side of 2007 and this season and the next represents possibly the best chances this current crop of established Chelsea stars will have in winning the coveted trophy. They looked to have learned from their past mistakes and appointed a manager with not only a tall reputation, but one that has managed an elite club successfully with trophies galore to show for his time at Milan. They’ve also, by default been conservative in the transfer market with the presence of Real Madrid limiting further impact other then the low profile signings of Zhirkov, Sturridge and Turnbull though flirtations with signing a 31 yr old Pirlo from Milan shows the old impulse to buy star names still afflicts Roman Abramovich.

What you see is what you get with Chelsea. They are physically very strong, defensively solid and functional in all areas. Whoever lifts the trophy may well have to get past the West Londoners to achieve that aim. Forget the current hoo-hah over a transfer embargo. They have the manager, players and the squad to lift the trophy. If Chelsea can just grab that slice of luck that seems to have deserted them in the competition then they can go all the way.

4. Arsenal

The ever-youthful Arsenal continues to maintain their status quo as part of the English big 4 despite a plus deficit in net spending. Considering, since 2004 United have a net spend of minus £64m despite having the advantage of Veron, Ferdinand, Rooney and Van Nistelrooy plus their golden generation of Beckham, Butt, the Neville brothers, Giggs and Scholes at the time, Chelsea having a net spend of minus £103m and even Liverpool showing a minus £83m deficit, Arsenal’s financial management is

Champions League Group H Table     P W D L F A GD PTS 1 AZ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 Arsenal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 Olympiacos 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 Standard Liege 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

very impressive. With a new stadium to pay for, they have maintained their competitiveness despite the increasing pressure from fans that live in a culture of instant gratification. If those very fans ever get their wish and see Wenger retire or forced out they will likely live to regret their ill-conceived beliefs.

It’s something of a surprise even to me that I’ve ranked Arsenal this high. They haven’t made too much of a splash in the transfer market and has actually gotten better by addition by subtraction. The departures of Toure and Adebayor strengthen their claims with Gallas now able to anchor the defence without his estranged former team-mate and looking much better for Toure’s departure. Adebayor proved to be nothing more then a mercenary and players like Van Persie, Arshavin, Eduardo, Walcott and Vela offer more mobile options in the key lone striker role then the laconic Togan striker ever did. The midfield remains a concern particularly the lack of an experienced defensive midfielder but they have enough about them to retain plenty of respect. They’ll continue to play their pretty football but from last season, they are much more solid defensively and that can make the difference. Allied with the continued maturity of their talented youths they can surely stamp themselves as serious contenders to the Champions League crown.

5. Liverpool

Last season, Liverpool enjoyed something of a renaissance in terms of domestic ambitions and reached the quarterfinals of the Champions League before they were beaten by Chelsea. Heading into the close season they had ambitions of signing David Silva to add to the signing of Glen Johnson and their current squad before financial realities hit. They then had to fend off the advances of Real Madrid for key man Alonso who then forced through a move to the Bernabeu. Since then, Aquilani has come in as a replacement but is not yet fit and concerns has emerged regarding the health of their three centre-backs and the absence of Alonso. So far this season, Liverpool have

Champions League Group E Table     P W D L F A GD PTS 1 Debrecen 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 Fiorentina 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 Liverpool 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 Lyon 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

struggled to replace the metronomic passing of Xabi Alonso with Lucas and Mascherano both unable to dictate games in the same way Alonso did. To add to that, Gerrard has looked off the pace with his court case possibly affecting his pre-season preparations and Torres is showing his frustrations in getting involved in a war of attrition with opposition defenders.

So why have I ranked Liverpool this high? Because they still have largely the same core of players they had last season and with good health, Liverpool are more then a match for any side on any given day. The immediate problem of injury concerns in central defence and the lack of a suitable replacement for Alonso can be solved as the season wears on. If Aquilani can provide a seamless transition once fit from the Alonso era, then Rafa’s preference for a 4-2-3-1 will remain potent. In the meantime he must explore a different formation possibly to a more orthodox 4-4-2 as the partnership of Lucas and Mascherano is simply not good enough to provide a deep lying offensive platform. They probably won’t be able to win their domestic title this season but that is only bad news for Champions League rivals as Rafa will likely prioritise the competition over the Premier League should the Kop Kings find themselves further adrift of their domestic leaders come December.

6. Juventus

Juventus actually exceeded my expectations of them last season playing well in the group stages before falling short to Chelsea. This summer, they’ve reloaded by signing Cannavaro on the free transfer and whether he provides an upgrade over Olof Mellberg is debatable as his lack of pace

Champions League Group A Table     P W D L F A GD PTS 1 Bayern Munich 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 Bordeaux 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 Juventus 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 Maccabi Haifa 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

was exposed time and time again in La Liga. They’ve signed two Brazilians in Felipe Melo and Diego. Both will provide much needed reinforcement in the engine room and Diego, in particular will be expected to provide the spark they would’ve missed as long time stalwart Pavel Nedved retires.

In defence they still don’t look quite as solid as they could be but rank comparably with the teams of Bayern Munich, Lyon, Porto, Milan, Inter and Atletico. Their attacking options of Iaquinta, Del Piero and Trezeguet are all vastly experienced but aging and much rest on the shoulders of Amauri who began to blossom towards the end of the season. What makes Juventus “better” then the other teams mentioned? For me, their strength lies in their midfield with variety from the likely “dogs of war” in the central midfield areas with the likes of Sissoko, Poulsen, Melo offering excellent defensive midfield protection, creative sparks in Giovinco and Diego and industry and experience in Tiago, Camoranesi and Salihamidzic. Diego is the key man and he will provide Juventus that spark. They should get better this season and if they ever sign a centre half in the January transfer window, they are interesting contenders.

7. Manchester United

United may have won the Premier League three times on the trot and have a Champions League appearance to build upon but they’re still written off in some quarters. Why? Because of one man CR7 otherwise known as Ronaldo of Portugal who departed for the sunnier climes of Madrid. Of more concern is the threat of big spending neighbours, Manchester City. Domestically they should still compete but in the context of the Champions League, they should

Champions League Group B Table     P W D L F A GD PTS 1 Besiktas 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 CSKA Moscow 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 Man Utd 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 Wolfsburg 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

be found wanting. Whilst they did reach the final of the Champions League last season they did so with a touch of luck avoiding Liverpool, Chelsea, Bayern Munich and Barcelona in their last quarter draw.

In the close season, United saw CR7 and Tevez depart and has replaced them with Obertan, Valencia, Diouf and Owen. Whilst that is certainly not a balanced trade-off in terms of talent, they should be more close knit then ever before. The fly in the ointment is the continued rumblings of disagreement between Ferguson and the young Brazilian Anderson who hasn’t quite set the Theatre of Dreams alight but was thought by myself to be an improver this season. This season United hasn’t looked too clever at times with big concerns over the effectiveness of Berbatov and Owen whilst defensively they have huge concerns over Ferdinand, Van Der Sar and Vidic. They couldn’t win the CL with Ronaldo and Tevez last season and only figure to regress to simply a quarterfinal place or even the possibility of just a last 16 place. I actually had United ranked out of the top 8 but it would be foolish to disrespect the claims of the Red Devils.

8.?
This was a tough choice as Bayern Munich, Lyon, Porto, Inter Milan, AC Milan and Atletico Madrid all hold useful and valid claims to being part of the top 8 and I just prefer to review three sides who are leading the battle for the eighth spot.

Inter Milan

Inter Milan hasn’t made much inroads in the transfer market with only an arguable upgrade of Eto’o over Ibrahimovic. Regardless of Barcelona’s overvaluation of Ibrahimovic, Inter have themselves a proven Champions League striker just a year older then his predecessor and £40m cash to boot! But simply Eto’o is not enough. Part of Inter’s problem is the lack of pace and guile on the offensive side as well as the lack of solid defensive anchor. Their defence looks experienced but unfortunately age is definitely not on their side with only Chivu and Maicon in their prime years and alas, both are attacking full backs. Lucio arrives from Bayern Munich but does not inspire similar confidence other marquee defender enjoys and in any case, is on the wrong side of 30. Though he has impressed at the heart of the Brazil national side, it is worth remembering Lucio enjoys the pragmatic tactical applications that Dunga employs. In midfield they have similar problems with the aging Viera and Stankovic among the more recognisable names. Aside from Eto’o it is the glaring lack of world class stars that is evident throughout the squad. I’ve always said what you see is what you get and what I’m seeing is an aging, paceless side with the lack of world class stars in their prime years more prevalent in higher ranked sides. They’ll probably make the last 16 but whether they progress further is in the lap of the gods.

Atletico Madrid

This season’s live outsider could come in the shape of Real Madrid’s local rivals, Atletico Madrid who possesses the talent to make an impact on the Champions League scene. From highly regarded young goalkeeper Sergio Asenjo, brought to prominence to British fans by Alex Ferguson’s interest in him, experienced defenders in Juan and Ujfalusi, wide men in Reyes, Rodriguez and Simao and of course the front men in Forlan and the exciting Aguero, the side has a useful look to it. They showed glimpse of their potential last season when drawn in a tough group with Marseilles, Liverpool and PSV and another year on, they should surely improve for the experience. They really should make the last 16 and they will be the sleeper team the bigger clubs fear.

Bayern Munich

Bayern has so far only made an impact signing in Arjen Robben and he and Franck Ribery both hold the key to the German giant’s chances of Champions League glory. However, they just don’t look quite good enough with the majority of the squad the very stereotype of German players: big, strong, and functional. They simply are a poorer and slower version of Chelsea. They’ll be vulnerable to a side with pace but they’ll still likely prove tough to beat. The defence remains largely unchanged and they just lack that reassuring presence at the back with the departure of Lucio. The midfield of Van Bommel, Tymoschuck, Schweinsteiger are all strong physical presence whilst upfront the likes of Toni and Klose are similar to Juventus’ front three of Del Piero, Trezeguet and Iaquinta. All are vastly experienced but on the wrong side of 30. They do have Mario Gomez but he has yet to convince myself he is a world class striker as he has the build of a target man but not the clinical efficiency of Van Nistelrooy at his peak. For all of Robben and Ribery’s attacking talents, they still do not quite look good enough and with Ribery recently having a much publicised spat with new coach, Van Gaal, it doesn’t bode well for Bayern Munich’s chance of keeping the French playmaker. They should coast through their group games but like Inter Milan they will be vulnerable to a side with real pace and defensive solidity.

Not to mention the familiar famous name of AC Milan. How the mighty has fallen. It wasn’t that long ago when AC Milan would’ve struck fear in all of the top European teams but with the departure of Kaka and retirement of Paolo Maldini they are in rebuilding mode. Their defence still has the look of an aging unit with Nesta the lynchpin. Signing former Newcastle defender Onyewu Oguchi is hardly the kind of signing to quicken the pulse. The midfield of Gattuso, Pirlo, Seedorf and Ambrosini are all on the wrong side of 30 and lack the box to box dynamism as a collective unit. But it is their attacking options of Ronaldinho, Pato and Huntelaar that holds the key to their ambitions. Whether that is enough to overcome the questions their defence and midfield has is debatable against the top 5 in the power rankings.

Prediction

As for the winner, I was inclined to follow last season’s strategy of backing on the exchanges with a view to trading out. Last year Barcelona, Chelsea, Liverpool and Zenit St Petersburg were my picks against the field and I was perhaps unlucky not to increase profits with the first three all drawn in the same half with Manchester United having the easiest of the

To Win Champions League FC Barcelona 5.50  @   Real Madrid 6.00  @   Chelsea 7.50  @   Manchester United FC 9.50  @   Arsenal 11.00  @   Internazionale Milano 13.00  @   Liverpool 13.00  @   Juventus FC 26.00  @   Bayern Munchen 30.00  @

draws from the quarter-finals. Zenit St. Petersburg had been impressive but alas I did not trade out on that selection with Juventus perhaps confounding personal expectations of them allied with some surprisingly lacklustre displays from Zenit in their earlier group games.

If I choose to follow last season’s strategy of backing three plus an outsider on the exchanges against the field I also have to consider that this season, there is no mystery as to the main contenders and as a consequence the prices on offer are not big enough to warrant such an investment. Looking at the markets I’m loathed to back four once again as their prices simply do not warrant that kind of investment. In fact, given doubts about Real Madrid’s defence with bookies overvaluing their offensive firepower and Barcelona’s decision in swapping a proven marksman for an underachiever and over-hyped player, I’d much rather focus on the sole English contender in Chelsea who has the least question marks of all contenders.

Liverpool doesn’t quite have the same squad depth Chelsea possesses and much depends on the fitness of Gerrard and Torres and for that reason, I can envision the irony of Chelsea winning the Champions League despite their public statement of intent for the Premier League title. I may be complacent in dismissing the threat from Serie A but they simply haven’t shown enough to suggest that Inter and Juventus can represent a clear and present danger to the big four and La Liga. Thus the focus is on the big 2 from Spain and Chelsea from England who have the right manager and players to rank higher in terms of threats then Manchester United, Arsenal and Liverpool.

It may also be worth keeping an eye on Atletico Madrid with a view to trading. They shouldn’t win the competition on paper but they can certainly reach the quarterfinals with a bit of luck and trade lower then their current price.

Pick: Chelsea to win CL outright 2pt win 7.5 Eurobet