PREMIERSHIP 2008/09

WITHOUT THE BIG FOUR

Harry Redknapp's Portsmouth won the FA Cup last season and I'm convinced they can push on this season in the league and are a great price of 9.00 (Coral) to win the Premiership without the big four. Coral are paying for three places at 1/5 the odds and the sensible play here is to back Pompey each-way. If we assume that the top will end up being populated by the usual suspects then we'll only need Portsmouth to finish between 5th and 7th to ensure us of a profitable return.

Redknapp has been able to keep the majority of his squad together, with the most notable departure being that of Sulley Muntari to Inter Milan. Although Muntari is a loss, it's not going to cripple Portsmouth and they have more than enough in all areas of the pitch to be able to make light of the sale.

Defensively Portsmouth were very strong last season and started the current campaign off with a clean sheet against Manchester United in last week's community shield. With David James in goal and a back four including Sol Campbell, Sylvain Distin and Glen Johnson, there is no reason to believe Portsmouth won't be the solid unit that they were last season.

It's in midfield and upfront where Portsmouth will find the improvement that should enable to beat last season's best Premiership finish of 8th and break into the top 7 and have a realistic chance of 5th spot. The Fratton Park outfit will be able to benefit from a full season of Lassana Diarra and Jermaine Defoe. Both players made positive impacts last season after arriving during the mid-season transfer window and will likely be the players that propel Portsmouth into a consistent Premiership side.

Another new signing who should help significantly is Peter Crouch who will partner Defoe in attack. Both players have proven they can score goals in the Premiership and now being able to forge a partnership and being sure of a regular game each week should help both players produce good seasons.

Portsmouth will also have to contend with the UEFA Cup this season and that may ring alarm bells as to whether they can sustain both competitions, as well as defending the FA Cup and playing in the Carling Cup. However, the squad looks deep enough to be able to do so barring a major injury crisis.

At 9.00 Portsmouth offer far greater value than Tottenham who are unjustifiably short in all places, especially considering the loss of Robbie Keane and the uncertainty surrounding Dimitar Berbatov. Everton, Aston Villa and Manchester City will all have similar aspirations too but in the case of Everton and Man.City there has been little progress in the transfer market to strengthen either side. And with Everton needing to sell to buy and Man.City having off field problems that may affect the club on the field, I wouldn't consider backing either team. Villa offer a more attractive proposition and appear well set for a decent season but I'm quite happy to go with Portsmouth , especially since by my calculations they are over priced. We'll back them each-way and will be very disappointed to not see some kind of return on the investment by May 2009.

Sports Magician picks

3* Portsmouth to win the Premiership 2008/09 without the big four (Each-Way) @ 9.00 (Coral– 1/5 odds 1, 2, 3)

Total points outlay – 6 pts (3pts @ 8/1 to win & 3pts @ 8/5 to place)

Win would return (profit) – 28.8pts (Total profit 28.8pts)

Place would return (profit) – 4.8pts (Total profit 1.8pts having lost 3pts on the win)