Premiership Preview Part Three - Mid-table Mediocrity

Sunderland look like dark horses to back this season. Roy Keane did well to steer the Mackems away from any danger of relegation relatively comfortably in the end, and unlike other teams in the past, I have faith that Sunderland will not fall into the trap of ‘second season syndrome’.

SSS is a serious affliction which can have debilitating results and dire financial consequences. Symptoms include complacency, expensive but ineffective close season signings, and fan delusion. Thankfully for Sunderland, they have a clean bill of health.

Keane is the type of manager who you do not cross swords with, and I don’t think that complacency will ever be a problem at Sunderland. Encouragingly, he has brought in some players with plenty of Premiership experience, including the trio of Pascal Chimbonda, Teemu Tainio and Steed Malbranque from Tottenham, as well as El Hadji Diouf from Bolton.

These are all intriguing signings, not least because they are all undoubtedly talented, but because Chimbonda, Malbranque and Diouf all come with diva - and ‘diver’, in one case - reputations which bely Roy Keane’s no-nonsense character. One would associate Keane’s persona with hiring brutes intent on kicking the very likes of Malbranque off the pitch, and so it is interesting that he has opted for these particular players.

Sunderland now look to have a respectable balance to their side, and although quality may be lacking in certain areas, they are an efficient side and should have no sleepless nights about relegation this time round.

Considering that there seems to be little between Sunderland, Middlesbrough and Newcastle, and Hull are widely expected to be relegated, I’m quite happy for us to snap up the 4.5 on Sunderland finishing as top north-east club. I had Sunderland as marginal favourites in a three-horse race, and although it’s by no means a certainty, they are the toughest outfit in that part of town and there is no way they should be rank outsiders.

Verdict: 12th place, and everyone is happy…except Newcastle fans.

Ins: Pascal Chimbonda (Tottenham, undisclosed), David Meyler (Cork City, undisclosed), Nick Colgan (Ipswich, free), Teemu Tainio (Tottenham, undisclosed), El Hadji Diouf (Bolton, £2.5m), Steed Malbranque (Tottenham, undisclosed).

Outs: Andrew Cole (Nottingham Forest, free), Greg Halford (Sheffield United, loan), Ian Harte and Stephen Wright (both released), Ross Wallace (Preston, loan).

Fulham were involved in a relegation battle for the ages last season, and under Roy Hodgson, they completed one of the most incredible comebacks in recent memory, in any sport.

Let’s go back to a Saturday afternoon in late April: Fulham went into their match against Manchester City knowing that only three wins in their last three matches would guarantee survival, and they were soon trading at an in-running high of 700.0 just to win that match, as they conceded two early goals.

At half-time, the game seemed up. Roy Hodgson had only been installed as manager a few months earlier, and he looked absolutely helpless as Fulham went behind. Even if he will never admit it, Hodgson must have been thinking about what he would say to chairman Mohammed Al-Fayed after the match - it was surely time for him to return to a cushy job in Europe or retire gracefully.

Hodgson is one of the most amiable managers in world football, and it was upsetting to see such a genuine man on the brink of failure, through little fault of his own (Fulham fans would have blamed Al-Fayed for sacking Chris Coleman, and his replacement Lawrie Sanchez for his unhealthy fetish for mediocre Northern Ireland players). Maybe we can all sympathise with him because during some of Fulham’s losses last season, he seemed to be rocking back and forth in his touchline seat, invariably reminding us of the grandfather from the Werther’s Original adverts. Fulham fans would have been disappointed by relegation, but it would have been easier to compute with a sepia-toned hug from grandpa Roy.

As it turned out, against all odds, Hodgson was spared the sack as Diomansy Kamara scored a 90th minute to seal a 3-2 victory. Having been lambasted by Fulham fans all season, Kamara was the most unlikely of heroes. Fulham went on to record wins against Birmingham and Portsmouth to seal a great escape that Steve McQueen would have been proud of.

This season, things are looking up for the Cottagers. Hodgson has made wholesale changes, while still retaining the backbone of his squad. Brian McBride will arguably be the biggest loss, but Fulham have a like-for-like replacement in Andy Johnson. I explained in my top scorer preview why I expect Johnson to prosper at Fulham, and I feel that he has the match-winning ability to lift his new club well clear of relegation. Like Sunderland, Fulham should be free of relegation worries this season, while still falling short of a top-half finish.

Fulham’s strength is definitely in midfield, with Premiership journeymen such as Simon Davies, new captain Danny Murphy and the inspirational Jimmy Bullard. Zoltan Gera will provide a creative spark and seems an excellent addition to the squad. With the improving Clint Dempsey as back-up, Fulham’s midfield is crafty and will always put in 100% effort. Bullard and Murphy are great pals off the pitch, and this was reflected in the team spirit of the side towards the end of last season. It was fitting that their final day win at Fratton Park came courtesy of a Murphy header, via a Jimmy Bullard free-kick. Unlike other Premiership sides, Fulham can certainly not be accused of lacking heart.

Mark Schwarzer is a minor improvement on Antti Niemi, who looked to have lost form towards the end of last season after being dropped for Kasey Keller, who has ironically now been released. However, Fulham’s defence is still the chief concern. After conceding 60 goals in the league last season - by all accounts, this was one less goal than Tottenham conceded - Hodgson has failed to make significant changes at the back. Fredrik Stoor will add some solidity at right-back, but the likes of Aaron Hughes are woefully short of Premiership quality, and although Moritz Volz is a top bloke - see www.volzy.com and his David Hasselhoff homage if in doubt - he is simply not up to scratch.

History favours Fulham to do well this season, and although some punters may feel that the following evidence is circumstantial, I believe that it is highly relevant. In recent years, Portsmouth (17th in 05/06, 9th in 06/07) and West Ham (15th in 06/07, 10th in 07/08) have both completed extraordinarily similar escapes from relegation, and in subsequent years, they have had nothing to worry about.

Crucially, they both performed well on the Premiership handicap market in year after their relegation troubles, and we feel that Fulham have been given a particularly generous handicap this year, and are one of the best additions to our ante post portfolio so far.

Verdict: 11th place, and Chris Coleman will be wondering why he wasn’t afforded more funds in his transfer kitty.

Ins: John Pantsil and Bobby Zamora (West Ham, £6.3m), Tony Kallio (Young Boys Bern, undisclosed), Andranik Teymourian (Bolton, free), Zoltan Gera (West Brom, free), David Stockdale (Darlington, undisclosed), Mark Schwarzer (Middlesbrough, free), Fredrik Stoor (Rosenborg, undisclosed), Pascal Zuberbuhler (Neuchatel Xamax, free), Andrew Johnson (Everton, undisclosed).

Outs: Dejan Stefanovic (Norwich, undisclosed), Nathan Ashton (Wycombe, nominal fee), Elliot Omozusi (Norwich, loan), Ricardo Batista (Sporting, undisclosed), Tony Warner (Hull City, free), Carlos Bocanegra (Stade Rennais, free), Brian McBride (Toronto, free), Philippe Christanval, Jari Litmanen, Simon Elliott, Kasey Keller (all released), Hameur Bouazza (Charlton, loan).


Newcastle failed to prove themselves last season after the famous and improbable return of their resident messiah, Kevin Keegan. By my reckoning, we could have a decent season if we continue to oppose them, if early indications are anything to go by. Despite a great deal of fanfare, Keegan failed to significantly turn around Newcastle’s fortunes, and it was more thanks to the incompetence of other teams than any tactical genius that they managed to avoid a relegation dogfight.

After the debacle of last season, I was expecting Keegan to make wholesale changes to his squad, and that Newcastle would go into the new season looking for a comfortable top half finish. However, either Keegan has not been afforded the funds to make quality signings, or he is sitting on his laurels, absolutely oblivious to the point of delusion, thinking that he has a squad to challenge the Big 4.

Whatever the case, I am overjoyed that the bookies disagree with me. Newcastle are 2.2 to finish in the bottom half, which is bet of the year material.

Verdict: 13th, and the messiah vanishes into thin air.

Ins: Danny Guthrie (Liverpool, undisclosed), Jonas Gutierrez (Real Mallorca, undisclosed).

Outs: Emre (Fenerbahce, undisclosed), David Rozehnal (Lazio, £2.9m), Peter Ramage (QPR, free).

Wigan arguably provided the managerial coup of last season as they snatched Steve Bruce from Birmingham City in November, after a woeful start under Chris Hutchings. Wigan proved difficult to beat from then on, and escaped being dragged into a relegation battle.

This summer, Bruce has gone back to Birmingham to buy creative midfielders Olivier Kapo and Daniel de Ridder, as well as providing some beef in the middle of the park with Lee Cattermole. The real coup is de Ridder on a free transfer, and he could prove to be one of the signings of the season.

Bruce’s tactics aren’t going to endear Wigan to lovers of silky, aesthetic football, but with the likes of Emile Heskey up front, they have a reliable Premiership squad. The JJB Stadium is never an easy place for visitors, especially when the pitch is designed for midfield scythers as opposed to attractive continental play.

Verdict: 15th would represent a satisfactory season.

Ins: Amr Zaki (Zamalek, loan), Olivier Kapo (Birmingham, £3.5m), Daniel de Ridder (Birmingham, free), Lee Cattermole (Middlesbrough, £3.5m).

Outs: Andreas Granqvist (Groningen, £600,000), Julius Aghahowa (Kayserispor, undisclosed), Salomon Olembe (Kayserispor, free), Josip Skoko (Hajduk Split, free), David Cotterill (Sheffield United, undisclosed).

West Ham enjoyed an eminently respectable season, and we expect them to continue performing well, without tearing up trees. Alan Curbishley has brought in Swiss international Valon Behrami to provide variety in midfield, and given some of the crazy prices flying around for mediocre players in recent years, I reckon that this could prove to be a fantastic piece of business. Behrami proved his worth for Switzerland during Euro 2008 with some impressive and creative cameos, and he should slot in well.

Elsewhere, they look strong all over the pitch, with a solid defence, even if Anton Ferdinand continues to be over-rated by pundits and fans alike. Would he really be anywhere near the West Ham team if he wasn’t repeatedly assumed to be as good as his world-class relative, who just happens to have played for the same side, in the same position? If Anton shaves his head and starts to sport a caterpillar on his chin, then he should expect a regular place in the England side.

It would also help if he learned how to position himself when defending set pieces, although such banalities are not essential when you’re a dead ringer for Rio Ferdinand.

Verdict: 10th place represents another good season.

Ins: Valon Behrami (Lazio, £5m), Balint Bajner (Liberty Salonta, undisclosed), Jan Lastuvka (Shakhtar Donetsk, loan).

Outs: John Pantsil and Bobby Zamora (Fulham, £6.3m), Richard Wright (Ipswich, undisclosed).


This season could be somewhat of a damp squib for Blackburn, after a few seasons of total comfort in the top half of the table. Mark Hughes has moved onto bigger and better things at Manchester City, and Paul Ince has come in to replace him. It is an appointment which is bold, and although there is no doubt that Ince achieved an awful lot with Macclesfield and MK Dons, you can’t help but get the feeling that this promotion has come too soon in his fledgling career.

The signs are certainly not promising. Blackburn have yet to make any signings which will make other clubs take notice, and although acquiring Robbie Fowler on a free transfer may help to provide a presence in the dressing room, the loss of David Bentley will deal a huge blow. Selling their ever-reliable goalkeeper Brad Friedel for £2 million and buying the hapless Paul Robinson for £3.5 million sums it all up.

Verdict: 14th - Blackburn are going backwards.

Ins: Robbie Fowler (Cardiff, free), Paul Robinson (Tottenham, £3.5m), Carlos Villanueva (Audax Italiano, loan), Danny Simpson (Manchester United, loan), Julio Santa Cruz (Cerro Porteno, undisclosed).

Outs: Stephane Henchoz (released), Bruno Berner (released), Peter Enckelman (Cardiff, free), Brad Friedel (Aston Villa, £2m), David Bentley (Tottenham, £15m), Maceo Rigters (Barnsley, loan).

NJ’s Bets:

Sunderland to be top north-east team - 3.5pts @ 4.5 (StanJames, PaddyPower)

Fulham to beat West Brom (season match bet) - 5pts @ 1.65 (Sportingbet)

Fulham to win Premiership with +45pts handicap - 4pts @ 16.0 (E/W, 1, 2, 3, 4, ¼) (Betfred, Coral)

Newcastle to finish 11th or below - 5pts @ 2.2 (Lasseters Sportsbook)

Wigan to beat Bolton (season match bet) - 3pts @ 1.85 ()

West Ham to finish 11th or above - 1pt @ 2.1 (Lasseters Sportsbook)

Middlesbrough to finish 13th or below - 1pt @ 1.9 (Lasseters Sportsbook)

Fulham to finish 15th or above - 3.5pts @ 2.35 (Lasseters Sportsbook)