The reasons why Liverpool won't win the Premier League



Surely Liverpool's win at Stanford Bridge raised a few eyebrows. For more than one reason. First of all, because it was Chelsea's first league defeat at home for 80+ games. So an incredible run came to an end, when Xabi Alonso's deflected shot went in behind the Chelsea keeper. But also because Liverpool finally manage to beat one of the big two (Chelsea and Manchester United) away from home. But more importantly because they with that win managed to slip three points clear of Chelsea and 5 + points ahead of arch rivals Manchester United. With that win, many many people across the world had and do still have Liverpool as the favorites to win the Premier League. But I will in the following sections give my view on why it WON’T happen this season or in the near future for the Merseyside club.

Squad

Liverpool does have a fantastic squad. They have a squad with a few world class players. They have some great players and they have a bunch of good players. And it’s exactly here where one of Liverpool’s problems are. The thin little red line that separates great from good players aren’t actually that thin, in the long term view  when it comes to winning the Premier League.

We can all agree that players like Ryan Babel, Albert Arbeloa, Phillip Degen, Martin Skrtel, Fabio Aurelio, Jermaine Pennant, Andrea Dossena, Yossi Benayoun, Sami Hyppia, Albert Riera and Dirk Kuyt are good players, but are they also great players? I think you have to be a Liverpool fan to think that, or I’m wrong? Well I know it’s a subjective decision on how you judge players. But if we have to be fair and objective I don’t think many people would call these players world beaters. Surely some of them can be great players such as Riera and Babel, but at present time, they aren’t great players just good players.
In the category as great players Liverpool do have a handful of players such as Daniel Agger, Jamie Carragher, Jose Reina, Robbie Keane, Xabi Alonso and Javier Mascherano. With the squad Liverpool has right now, I would put these players in that category. But is that really enough, to win a league like the Premier League? Again here, you can conclude your own opinions, me personally I don’t think so at all.
That leaves us with Fernando Torres and Steven Gerrard. And you have to be anti-Liverpool not to recognize these players as world class players. Because they are without a doubt. These two players are pretty much half of the team offensive. And even though these two players are world class players, they can’t hold Liverpool in the title race in the long term run.

Strategy

Surely Liverpool has one of the best managers in the league in Rafa Benitez. He is clever, has got flair for the game, he knows how to organize a defence, he is great setting up tactics against different opponents and he is undoubtedly one of the best managers in the world in Cup tournaments such as the Champions League and the FA Cup.

BUT Rafa aint perfect of course. He is too tight formation wise, he is at times way to defensively, his Liverpool side are at times too easy to read for the opponents and he doesn’t try enough offensively. And maybe one of the most important ones, Liverpool doesn’t win enough of the big games against Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal. Against these teams the wins are too few and the losses are too many. 

Rafa Benitez has as a clear strategy to go out and win every game, he says. But this statement isn’t something that reflects his formation and lineups at times. It is understandable that Liverpool against teams like Chelsea and Manchester United don’t need to play with two strikers as it’s too dangerous sometimes. But when Liverpool at away games against teams like Wigan, West Ham and Fulham are playing 4-4-1-1 with one lone striker (Torres) and with Gerrard behind him, it’s too tight, and too defensively.  What I’m saying is Rafa Benitez at times needs to loosen up a bit, because his strategy isn’t winning Liverpool the Premier League.

Rafa Benitez is what you call a game to game manager. And that great in competitions such as Champions League, but in the Premier League you need a long term strategy to be able to have a chance of winning the title. And that is what Benitez and Liverpool are lacking at present time. At times it seems like Liverpool are playing not to lose instead of trying to win. And that is dangerous, because in the long perspective you end up losing too many points instead of winning them.

Rafa Benitez have one of the best defense in the Premier League undoubtedly, but at times it seems like he doesn’t believe in it hence the defensively approach too many games.  What he needs to do, is what Liverpool does at Anfield when they are best. And that means two strikers, ball pressure all over the pitch and importantly wings who are allowed to be offensive and don’t have too many defensively duties. When Liverpool plays this kinda football, it’s Beautiful to watch and it leads your mind to the happy 80s and 90s for this great great club. But it’s just way to rare Liverpool plays this way, and almost NEVER away from home.

Manchester United and Chelsea




In the season 2006-2007 Liverpool ended 21 points behind Champions Manchester United and 15 points behind Chelsea. In season 2007-2008 there was a gap of 11 points to Manchester United who clinched the title and 9 points behind Chelsea who once again ended in second place. So what does this say? Well it says that Liverpool have closed the gap on the two teams, but is the title race closer this season, then the last two ones ? Surely not in my opinion, as Liverpool still are a bit behind the two giants. But to summarize the good things for Liverpool is that they halved the gap between Manchester United and themselves in one season. Another thing is that they scored 10 goals more in the league in season 2007-2008 then in 2006-2007 and that positive of course.

But are Liverpool a genuine title contender now? Hmm there is surely many opinions on that. My opinion is NO; they aren’t a genuine title contender just yet. Why is that then? Well first of all because Liverpool don’t have the matriale to beat Manchester United and Chelsea in the long run for a few reasons.

If you take a look at the three squads (Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United) you will easily see that both Chelsea and Manchester United have more quality in their squads then Liverpool. But more importantly both Chelsea and Manchester United have a better in-depth squad the Liverpool. Saying in other words both teams are a class above Liverpool squad-wise. They can both better suffer an injury to a key player then Liverpool can. If a player like Torres is injured for a few weeks or more, you will see a Immediately affect on the goal-scoring as the other strikers Keane, Kuyt and Ngog don’t have the same quality of scoring goals as Torres have.

Try and do the same at Chelsea and United. If you take Drogba out of Chelsea, well then a player like Anelka just comes in and substitute him without that much of a difference quality wise. Same goes with Manchester United. Take a player like Rooney out, well then you still have Tevez and Berbatov + of course Ronaldo.

What I’m saying again, is that Liverpool are way too hanged up on wonders from Torres and Gerrard. Chelsea and Manchester United are way more to flexible on the goal scoring part as it comes from different players unlike Liverpool. Liverpool are at times way to "easy" to close down on the tactical front. And that will cost in the long run.

At the present time, Chelsea and Liverpool both have 26 points of their 11 games. Manchester United have taken 21 points from their 10 games. So a gap between them and Liverpool at five points, but it could be two as United has a game in hand. Even though Liverpool have a little handful of points more the United, I would still expect United to finish above Liverpool when the season ends in May.

I do know that many people immediately after the win at Stanford Bridge had Liverpool as clear favorites to win the Premier League, but I also think that these people need to think twice about that. Sure it was a great game from Liverpool. Sure they deserved the win; they surely played a great match. BUT this Premier League is a marathon and not a sprint. So the tactics of Benitez and Liverpool needs to be re-thought if they still wanna be in the race in May. I do NOT expect Liverpool to be in the title race, when the season close in May. And I will therefore make a big LAY bet on them to win the title.

Wolfman