Punting to a Profit

By Rob De Bookie

To the uneducated man in the street, horse racing appears to be an easy game...'Pick the favourite, they win more times than the rest, that's the only way you can come out in front' Cue head in hands moment. However, when asked how they pick their horses, the majority of gamblers cannot provide a logical and well-reasoned selection method. Admittedly, it has taken me a number of years, lots of trial and error and I am still learning...But I am getting there.

I think firstly, the most important thing to do when trying to pick a winner in a race is the opposite. Look for horses that cannot win. I tend to do this by assessing stamina limitations, complete lack of form, trainers with particularly poor statistics at the track, or who are grossly out of form. Furthermore, I am not ashamed to admit, I omit the vast majority of horses priced at 13.0 or above. Whilst I understand there are numerous horses priced above this level that represent relative value, statistics show that as the odds of a horse increase, its percentage chance of winning the race compared to the supposed chance given by its price, decreases. That seems a bit complicated but broken down, a 34.0 chance does not win on average just over three races from a sample of one hundred. It is closer to 1.5-2 times. Therefore if you can eliminate a large proportion of the field who represent poor value, you are reducing the bookmaker’s profit margin and have more chance of coming out ahead.

After selecting those horses who cannot win, the difficult part begins. In the current climate with terrible weather conditions and countless trainers bemoaning their luck as gallops have been frozen and unusable, racecourse fitness plays a large part in my selection method. If a horse has run recently I.e. in the last month, then you can be assured that more than likely it is fit enough to itself justice on the racecourse. Furthermore selecting horses that are in good form and have run recently is an even more fruitful exercise. This approach seems very simplistic and is definitely not a method I adopt all year, however in the winter months and the current climate; it appears to be the most prudent approach.

The draw is especially important when watching all weather runners over sprinting distances. If a horse is trapped out wide and likes to race prominently, it is going to have to exert significant additional energy to obtain a favoured position. Therein lays the next point that needs to be considered. The way a race will be run is essential to a horses chances. Try to go through every runner in the field and note down their racing style. From this position, it is easier to identify whether the race will place an emphasis on stamina with a plethora of front runners in the field taking each other on, or whether it will be a muddling affair, with emphasis on finishing speed.

Certain trainers do better with different types of horses. For example Derek Shaw and Alan Bailey excel with sprinters and following their horses that run over a mile or further is a very unprofitable exercise. Different reasons account for this; contrasting training methods, the types of horses purchased and the style the horses are taught to race in. Look for trainers that excel with certain types of horses and excel in certain types of races.

To recap. Look for horses that cannot win. Eliminate them. From your remaining 3-5 individuals, assess their recent form, fitness, draw, the way the race will be run and spend time assessing why the trainer may have entered them in the contest, and how they do with these different types of horses. I always think some wily handlers target certain courses rather than others and therefore a positive course record (10% or more) is a prerequisite for a horse to be backed.

Rob De Bookie