The Racing Week

By Ian Henderson

Times are hard and sadly they are going to get harder. I have run a tipping service for twenty-five years and I have had a fight on my hands to keep the membership intact and in fact have only managed to keep everybody on board by severely trimming the fees. Over the last year I have seen the most appalling results with not a whisper of a stewards enquiry. The selected horse gets pipped at the post by a horse that finished well down the field in its last three races and the price of 26.0 tells it all.

If I am in trouble then the poor owners and trainers are in double trouble. I am talking about a couple of thou but an owner can be in hock for £50,000 or more and the trainer may be even worse off.

Look at it sensibly. Nobody ever throws money away. Leave out brain dead footballers, they don’t count. Ordinary mortals are not in the business of throwing money away and the miracle about the current financial crisis is the fact that so many owners are hanging on in there.

With the poorest levels of prize money in the west owners are never going to get rich waiting for their horses to win. The only way that they can keep their heads above water is through betting. And when they have a bet they don’t want to see the SP at 2.25. This leaves the trainer with the problem of hiding the horse’s ability in order to get the price up. They have a host of options to make the horse into an unfancied outsider. The simplest way to do that is to run it at the wrong course where the horse won’t act or place a jockey in the saddle that the trainer knows the horse won’t go for. I used to train my own eventers and there were certain very good riders that I could put in the saddle on certain horses and guarantee a poor performance.

So what is the poor punter to do about the ‘surprise results’ that we are seeing more of. It is a good idea now to avoid any runner under 3.0 in the betting forecast and I am now advising Place Betting on higher priced horses. I have a very powerful background in Place Betting. Back in the late’70s I was taking Place bets with Ladbrokes in Tunbridge Wells.  I would place a tenner on a place bet and next day I would pick up £20+. If I had a couple of selections I would have a Place Double. There was one memorable Friday when I bet on a Place Double and both horses actually came first. Next day in the Betting Shop there was uproar when I went in because the other punters in there were all shouting at me……

’A Place Double? Do you know how much you would have made on a win double?’

About £400 but I had been betting this way for a long time and had never had two horses actually come 1st before. I tried to point out that I was picking up a profit every day but I don’t think they understood the strategy. One of the horses was Cut Above at 5.0 but I can’t remember what the other one was at 8.0. Soon after that Ladbrokes stopped taking Place bets, it was obvious that too many people were making money. We now have Betting Exchanges, which will take Place bets and not close you down. The Tote has always been a poor payer on Places but occasionally you will do better but don’t hold your breath.

In the early ‘80s I moved to South Africa where the racing was exceptional with almost free entry to my local courses and all year round Flat racing. Apartheid did not apply in the racing world. I saw a black owner in top hat and tails welcoming his winner in the parade ring and there was no surprise or shock at this event.

There was shock and horror as my betting bank almost disappeared. I soon found out why. We had a publication called Computerform which was quite brilliant at setting out the horses last performances and you could quite easily make a reliable selection…..which lost but was almost always placed. They have sectional timing in South Africa and in the next week’s Computerform you could see the photos for each race at three different stages of the race with each horse identified. You don’t need a video with that information. What I also saw were the jockeys on my horses breaking the horse’s jaw and leaning back on the reins to stop the horse from winning. I moved onto Place betting very quickly and started to make money.

I recently changed to Place betting again and my outstanding bet in January was on a horse in a 4 runner race which came 2nd and paid 2.75 for a place. You could never get this bet with a bookmaker!  Paddy Power and 888.com give early Place prices if you can’t get onto the internet. Yesterday, the 1st February, I had a horse that came 2nd and paid 2.75 on Betfair,  2.38 with Power and 1.8 on the Tote. Enough said.

On the occasional days when there are two Place selections I would definitely advise a Place Double. You may be concerned that a Place bet might win. If you keep a careful record of these you will find that it is not worth taking them on for a win.

That’s all.

Ian Henderson