The Epsom Derby

By Secreto

Secreto takes a light-hearted look at the value for this year's Epsom Derby...

When St Nicholas Abbey bolted up in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster last October, talk immediately turned to the glittering three-year-old career that awaited him. The Derby would be a cakewalk, and if for whatever reason Steinbeck didn't get carried over the Irish Sea by the adoring Ballydoyle budgies, he’d win the Guineas standing on his head too.

Well, part two didn’t go to plan, now part three has been scuppered as this noisiest of talking horses will not get the chance to prove he is worth the hype as injury has forced him out of the derby

Just last year, Sea The Stars was returned at 3.75 after his romp to victory, despite Mick Kinane having stayed in the saddle for another year just to ride him (I know, I know, ‘Mick Fitz’ and Duc De Reigniere, but still), and having won a Guineas so impressively.  That’s before you consider he is out of one of the greatest broodmares of modern times, the late Urban Sea, who could have mated with a penguin and still produced a Group winner.

Perhaps trying to draw comparisons would have been the wrong way forward,

Looking to end his Derby drought Aiden O'Brien

but a year on, and St Nicholas Abbey had been made a short price favourite having finished over three lengths back in 6th in the 2,000 Guineas. And that behind a horse who sold, unraced, for just 26,000gns days after St Nick’s first 4.0 Derby quotes!

Now, when you see horses from any particular training establishment picking up Group races left, right and centre, it makes sense to listen to their trainer. Aiden O’Brien has been doing the business for years, and he hasn’t minced his words this time. So if what has been said is to be taken literally, get ready for the best racecourse performance in a generation later in the season, with the possible exception of the ABBA tribute band playing at Epsom the night before the Derby!

Given the dominance of the Coolmore empire at stud (as an example, nine of the twelve runners in last year’s Epsom Derby were by Coolmore stallions), it is surprising that Aiden O’Brien’s last Derby winner came in 2002, when High Chaparral beat Hawk Wing.  Since that day, 32 O’Brien-trained horses have tried and failed to give the trainer his third win in the race.  Lies, damned lies and statistics!

I will say this – he was deeply impressive when winning his Group 1 this year, and if, as is claimed by connections, he is in a different league to his stablemates (who just happen to now head the Derby betting), his next appearance will be something to savor. But in any case I could not have brought myself to back him at the price he was, so here are my two against the field:

Workforce – King’s Best – Soviet Moon (Sadler’s Wells)  Current Price 6.0

Seriously impressive when winning his maiden at Goodwood last year (beating subsequently very useful Oasis Dancer), and understandably immediately tipped up as a potential Derby horse.

He was beaten in the Dante on his reappearance, which is enough to put most people off given the record of beaten horses from that race in the Derby, but there were a few negative vibes surrounding his wellbeing before that, and given that the ground was considered to be plenty fast enough and he lacked the experience of any of his rivals, it was a good performance.  Add to that the fact that Ryan Moore could do very little with him in the straight due to the bit slipping, and it looks better still.

Workforce will undoubtedly need to improve a bundle to reach the frame, let alone win at Epsom, but he looks open to any amount of improvement and given his trainer’s Derby pedigree and the ability he has shown in two starts to date, I’d be happy to take the gamble at the 6.0 currently available.

Jan Vermeer – Montjeu – Shadow Song (Pennekamp)  Current Price 3.5

Possible finishing 4th on debut in a 7f Curragh maiden in now ‘required reading’ for a potential Derby colt (see STS last year), and done absolutely everyone right since (apart from getting a bruised foot over the winter), winning his maiden over a mile last year with Midas Touch behind, before bolting up in the Group 1 Criterium International at Saint-Cloud, where he again had Midas Touch, the chosen ride of Johnny Murtagh, back in 4th.  

Both of Aiden O’Brien’s previous Derby winners had won the Derrinstown Derby trial, and it is fair to say the Gallinule, which only recently reverted to a late-May slot and to once again being for three year olds only, is not where he would traditionally aim an Epsom Derby hope.  However, Jan Vermeer looked top-notch there, and the recent support in the market that has seen him move past stablemates Cape Blanco (Dante winner) and Midas Touch (Derrinstown) suggests not only that he has come out of the race bucking and squealing, but also that Coolmore are beginning to see him as a real challenger. 

Secreto