How to Pick the Grand National Winner

The Grand National is often seen as something of a lottery that pretty much any horse can win. 

This view was not without justification in the National's early history; in fact, in the first official running of the race back in 1839, a horse called Lottery was the winner. 

But judging from recent history, there are some quick and easy statistical ways to rule out most of the field and anyone looking at the 2011 Grand National should remember this.

Last year's Grand National winner, Don't Push It, carried a weight of 11 stones 5 lbs. But apart from 2005 winner Hedgehunter, the last time a horse carried 11 stones or more to win the National was Jenny Pitman's Corbiere back in 1983 who carried 11 stones 4lbs.

This startling statistic rules out a number of top-class horses immediately who are likely to be top-weighted. Even Hedgehunter was allocated less than 11 stones originally and only crept over because of a rise near to the race.

So what about age? Nearly all the recent winners have been aged 8,9,10 or 11. Only two 12 year-olds have won the National since the great Red Rum in 1977; Royal Athlete in 1995 and Amberleigh House in 2004. 

Generally, old horses do not win the National and young ones tend not to have the jumping experience. Paul Nicholls has plenty of entries in this year's race and the trainer is desperate to win it, but bear these stats in mind before backing any of them.

Then there's the market. You can count out any horses that are 50/1 or more on the day. Of course, you'd have missed 2009's 100-1 priced winner Mon Mome, but this was a rare exception. Long shots are generally not up to it and probably only running for the owner's benefit. For the previous really long-priced winner, you have to go back 43 years to Foinavon in 1967, after the worst pile-up in Grand National history.   

Next, exclude any horses that don't like the ground on the day and those with poor jumping records and - going by the stats - you're very likely to have the National winner on your shortlist.