Handicapping the NFL

Part One: An Introduction

Being the cynical being that I am, when I read what other people have to say about things in general, I spend quite a lot of time muttering to myself "That's stupid" or "Why do it that way?" with just the occasional "Oh yeah, that's good". Many such writers will tell you to keep an open mind when reading their work. An open mind normally meaning "What I say is correct, no matter how dumb it looks."
When reading my series on handicapping in the forthcoming weeks, I'm also going to ask you to keep an open mind, but in my case I mean it in the true sense. I'm a decent NFL handicapper and a winner. Decent. This means that the stuff I write about the NFL will be a similar standard to that. Decent.
 
I'm under absolutely no illusions about my place in the scheme of things. Decent is good enough to win me money and decent is good enough to pass on some useful ideas. It also means that if you do exactly what I do, the best you'll ever be is decent.
Therefore take what you can from the articles, if you like something, then use it. If you think something sucks, then don't. I'll be writing about things the way that I do them and things that have helped me. These ways lead me to those decent results. You should be looking to become better than that!
 
Of course, most people who are better than decent aren't on the internet writing about it, so I'm not putting myself down as a writer by admitting my flaws.
One thing I will apologise for in advance is any repeated material between articles, or apparent backtracking. I'm writing these as I go throughout the offseason and although I do have an idea as to my start and end points, the route may be a bit of a zig zagging one. I'm also a believer that if something applies to two situations, then it's no harm to repeat it.

The aim of the articles is to provide some insight as to how I learned to handicap and how I choose my picks.
It won't enable you to pick without work, and if you're starting from scratch, it won't provide you with free money where you can instantly become a great handicapper.
What I hope it does is enables beginners to find a starting point to tackle what probably seems like a daunting task  and to give advanced cappers something to point and jeer at, and who knows, maybe find a nugget or two that helps them.
 
The Aim of Handicapping:
 
This might seem like an obvious section, but actually it probably isn't. I'm armed with a pen, a spreadsheet, some websites with injury news, my wits and 60-90 minutes of time and I'm trying to handicap a game better than all the seasoned linesmakers in Vegas who have not only an intimate knowledge of the sport, but other people to help them and knowledge of which side is attracting the bets.
With that in mind, to make my aim "Make a better line than Vegas" is either a huge computer project or more realistically, barking mad.
 
Thankfully there is one thing that gives the gambler a chance though and that is that Vegas are not trying to make the best lines to predict football outcomes. They're trying to make the best lines to maximize their income. The two are close but not always identical.
If they think they can take as much money on a favourite at -10.5 as -10, then that's what they're going to do.... on condition that the other side doesn't attract enough money to make that a bad proposition.
 
My aim when handicapping is to try to mimic the Vegas line as closely as possible. If I know what's factored in, I know what's been left out. It is also significantly easier to check whether I was right or not than by watching a game that I have as +4, Vegas has as +3 and the score finishes 27-14. Who was right? Who can tell?!
 
First Step:
 
When you first look at a list of games, the array of numbers can be pretty daunting. You'll be surprised though how some huge simplifications can get your capping off to a decent start. The secret (at least as a beginner) is to not give yourself many options.
Here are two games from week 14. Hopefully far enough away you'll have forgotten them, but recent enough you may remember the relative strengths of the teams. Have a guess at the lines.
 
Jets at 49ers
Raiders at Chargers
 
You'll likely have read that home advantage is a little over three points. Just ignore that entirely for now. Points are not linear in the NFL. If a line is -2 and home advantage moves it to +1, nothing much has changed. If it's -3 and Home advantage moves it to -6, you're dealing with a totally different animal.
 
Football is a game of 3s and 7s. Those two numbers mean more than any other number. After one score, the game is nearly always a difference of 3 or 7 (TDs are only 6 points you say? Yes I know, whatever). After two scores, it's going to be 0, 4, 6, 10, and 14. Many of which lead to it being 3 or 7 again after three scores.
It's absolutely critical if you're going to handicap to understand just how the scoring system influences the line. 3 and 7 point wins will happen way more often than anything else. Use this to help you.
 
So, we can simplify our initial guess to make the line 0,3,7,10,14 or 17. 3 would represent a slight advantage. 7 a clear advantage, 10 a big advantage and 14 or 17 would be a gulf in ability.
Now, just slide one number on my scale above to represent home advantage. They all change by about 3 anyway, and we know these are important numbers. (As they're built from 3s and 7s), let’s not worry too much about the rest for now. A slightly better team at home. Let's call it 7 (3, moved to the next number). Dead level teams? Let's call it a 3 point home win.
 
Now... have another look at the two games listed above and make your line again!
 
Okay. Well the Jets were clearly better than the 49ers at the time. Using the beginner system above that would make them 7 point favourites. On the road that would move them to 3 point favourites. The actual line was 3.5 pts
 
The Chargers were struggling just a little by their standards and the Raiders were starting to pick up. The Chargers however were still clearly the better team, and at home. That would give them 10 point favouritism on the list above. The real line was 9.5
 
Easy isn't it? Well, with some experience it will be.
 
Obviously this is only a starting point but you have to start somewhere. In two week's time I'll continue and hope to expand on how to judge the relative abilities of teams.

Lori