Handicapping the NFL part 4: Other people's opinions


So, how difficult is this to write. Someone writing for other people to read giving their opinion on which other people you should read..... ohhhhhhhhhh we can see how this is going to turn out!


Pick percentage sites:

As you may or may not know there are several sites out there, including some bookmakers, who will give you a figure for the percentage of people on each side of the line. In the case of the free sites, there's some cash or prize incentive to get people to pick honestly. In the case of the bookmakers we have to take their word for it that that's where the money is going.
There are many theories on how to use such sites. As usual, I can only tell you how I use these places and let you make your own mind up.
 
The main school of thought is that you should oppose the consensus opinion. For sake of argument I'm going to assume that one team has "the consensus" if they get around 60% of the vote. When you visit the same site on a regular basis you'll pick your own number for this. It's not particularly important to have an exact definition, you're just getting a feel for what other people think of the game.
 
Why would you oppose the consensus? Well the line goes that if 60% of the people are on one side, then to level that up, the bigger money is on the other. It's not the most stupid theory ever made, and at least in part I'd agree with it.
 
What I wouldn't agree with is that you can blindly oppose the consensus. Here's what I do personally.
 
After making my list of lines, I compare my odds to the actual odds and make a list of bets I want. In general (There are always exceptions; sometimes I suspect the line is about to change and place my bet anyway. I'm pretty bad at this, which is why there's no section on predicting line movements.) I then visit the consensus sites.
 
If there are any of my picks where the consensus matches my pick. I'll look through my line again. Why? Because in the main part, consensus picks are based on very very limited information from casual members of the public who like a bet, or who want to win a TV.
If the Patriots have won by twenty points three weeks running, they'll be the consensus. Doesn't really matter what the line is. THEY'VE WON BY TWENTY PONTS THREE WEEKS RUNNING. You'd be stupid to bet against such a beast.
Of course we know from our notes that they should have won by 13,7 and 20 and have had some lucky bounces of the ball. So why does our line still agree with the consensus?
 
Well here's where you have to be brutally honest with yourself. Sometimes you can slip back into the thought process of a casual gambler and the consensus picks are a great way to keep an eye on yourself.
Are they really -17 point favourites or did you gloss over this one a bit because, heck, they won by twenty points three weeks running! If you've caught yourself being lazy, now's a good time to cross out your bet and just not worry about this one this week.
If you have some other reason for agreeing with the consensus line (Maybe you've noticed that they like to run up the score if they get the chance, or that they have a particular reason ... and the ability.... to destroy this team, then go ahead and bet. Just make sure that you're happy your line doesn't agree with the publics for the same reasons.)
 
It can also be a good way of spotting something you've missed. After a while you get a feel for where the percentage is going to be, but just occasionally it's way off line. Sometimes there's a big injury you've missed or the weather (yes I know I've left that alone so far, it's coming when I do totals) has changed massively. When you look back through a game because of a strange consensus number, the public info that you've somehow overlooked on this occasion can be found and added to the line.
 
In short, if the consensus disagree with me I'm happier than when they agree but agreeing with me in general is only enough to make me re-check my working. If I'm comfortable with my line after I've gone through it again then I'll still have the bet. Around half the time if I agree with the consensus pick, especially if it's a very high percentage, then I'll drop my bet. I never reverse a pick and take the other team simply because I agree with the public. I will occasionally reverse it on the information I find when I go back through my working though.
 
TV Pundits:
 
In general these are the guys I want to be betting against. The theory is similar to the consensus stuff above, except these guys actually create the consensus to some degree.
 
These guys love their win loss records and their yardage stats. Listen to their reasons and remember that their thoughts are influencing the market, you'll be pretty worried about what they're saying a lot of the time. This isn't because they're all idiots or anything like that, they're just not looking at the game from a critical gambling standpoint. They're making easy conversation before a football game that some people watch simply because they enjoy it!
 
 
Online Tipsters:
 
Here's the tough bit. I'm just going to be honest and if I get fired so be it!
 
If you follow an online tipster blindly, you probably need medical help. Thankfully that doesn't mean there are no good online tipsters and it doesn't mean I have to tell you to stop reading my articles. It does mean though that you should expect the worst if you just blindly follow picks.
Some tipsters are useful in that they give reasons for their picks. You can take these reasons and add them to your own pool of information and make a better-informed decision yourself.
You can keep your own records of how these guys are doing, or I believe there are places out there that do it for you.
You should however be aware of how big a sample size is required to see if anyone is good. If you don't have a sample of a few hundred games on someone then you can't make an informed decision. If you can, then they're either picking too many games a week, or they've picked for so long that they may no longer be winners. Don't be fooled by people who have thirteen wins seven losses (or the other way around), the samples are just too small.
This is convenient for me if I have a losing season this year as I can blame variance. On the other hand it's not so useful for bigging up my season last year. (Where I did very well by the way).
 
All you can really do is, as I repeat endlessly because it's so important, make your own decision. If you find yourself agreeing with a tipster week after week then you might decide that you can follow their picks in weeks where you can't do any work yourself.
Some guys will help you with their write-ups, some may even give an insight into how the public are picking because their picks will be so limited in understanding.
 
The majority of these people are in it for the money.
 
So, you're asking, why do YOU tip Lori?
 
Well I wrote a free blog some time before I joined up here. I happen to find that the act of writing things up focuses my attention. I get my bets on before I post so it doesn't harm me there. The only evidence I can provide is that if I were in it for the money, I'd be writing for an American site rather than the niche section on a UK based one.
The good news here is that it doesn't matter if you believe me or not as if what I write is helpful you'll still read me, and if it's not then you'll stop. Hopefully you read the reasoning behind the picks and use it yourself. Yeah I've mentioned that before. You won't get better than me by blindly following me.
 
There you go. 1.01 landed, I said that I was worth reading.

Lori