Priceform - Long Ron

Long Ron

"Long Ron" will be covering the PGA Golf tour events. His excellent analytical skills alongside a deep knowledge of the PGA will ensure long term profits.

LONG RON STATISTICS

Full Breakdown

TIPS	WON	LOST	STRIKE RATE	PROFIT / LOSS	R.O.I.
37	6	31	16.21	12.19pts	0

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The Players Championship

Published 07/05/08

EDS Byron Nelson Championship review

Due to my being away last week I was unable to cover the Wachovia event held during this time, but congratulations go out to the much vaunted Anthony Kim on his maiden PGA Tour win. Many good judges stateside have been banging the drum about Anthony Kim for many a moon, even to the point of Mark O’Meara rating his ability to age ratio as being second only to Tiger himself. Only the coming weeks, months and years will tell us exactly how talented this lad is, but suffice to say, if his belief truly is as strong as Mr O’Meara’s, then many more titles could well be forthcoming.

Looking back at the last event covered by myself (EDS Byron Nelson) the week ended in disappointment, despite a promising start. All five selections managed to make the cut, with both Justin Leonard and Luke Donald looking especially good. However, the weekend once again saw some disappointing performances from all five players, culminating in a best placed finish of T19 for Justin and Luke. The other selections managed finishes of T57 (JJ Henry) 72^nd (Maruyama) and 74^th (Uresti). This pattern of excellent form throughout Thursday & Friday, closely followed by lacklustre displays over the weekend is not a great sign for the immediate future, but I have no doubt that before too long the selections will see the job through and therefore reward sufficiently.

The Players Championship: 8 – 11 May

Fortunately the first week after my break sees the PGA Tour taking in the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass, Florida, for the unofficial “5^th Major” that is The Players Championship. There have been plenty of calls for this particular tournament to become an official Major event; however, thus far, those people high enough in office to deliberate over such matters have resisted this ridiculous notion. For what it’s worth, my opinion is that the golfing public does not need a fifth Major, and that they are more than happy to see this wonderful event continue as a superb spectacle under its current guise.

Many a cliché is spoken and written about the wondrous surroundings that the TPC Sawgrass provides both the paying public and the millions viewing on television; however, I make no apologies for backing up those that will surely fill their columns with superlatives relating to the course set-up, inclusive of its infamous two finishing holes. It’s fair to say that holes 17 & 18 are truly testing of every nerve in each of the players bodies, and that many Tour Professionals would much prefer not to have this particular two hole test situated at the end of each round played here….. Poppycock I hear the paying public retort!! These particular finishing holes make this championship what it truly is, brutal on their mental game in the extreme and shattering of any confidence that might have developed over the previous 16 holes each and every day. You only have to look back at what happened to Sean O’Hair at 17 last year to realise that just about anything is possible on this tough track, right up until the 72^nd hole has been completed on Sunday. The quadruple bogey 7 that was carded by Sean on the infamous island green Par 3 17^th hole last year wrecked his chances of winning, and although that must have been excruciatingly difficult for Sean to deal with, it’s true to say that the drama created was truly awesome and that Pete Dye’s design (or was it his wife’s, as folklore would have us believe) certainly had the desired effect once more.

The field for “The Players” is always extremely strong and this year is no exception, albeit with the obvious absence of TW and his troublesome knee. Due to its Florida location and wonderful practice facilities, many of the Tour Professionals base themselves here at Ponte Vedra Beach, although many will have us believe that they don’t bother playing the course itself, mainly due to the many tourists that apparently flock there, but I wonder if the truth is that most Pro’s would rather not face up to the finish on offer at 17 & 18.

Thankfully there is no need to mess with the course design here and this means that I can spend my time concentrating fully on those that appear to enjoy the test that this great course offers up. Please check out the course information provided below, as I feel it gives an excellent insight into TPC Sawgrass.

Course Information

THE PLAYERS Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass

Course Par Value: 72

Course Yardage: 7215

Hole	Par	Yards
1	4	392	From the start, the golf course demands accuracy from the tee. On this slight dogleg to the right, a drive to the right side of the narrow landing area will give the player a good angle to approach the long and narrow green. A long fairway bunker, a lateral water hazard and grass bunkers await errant drives to the right, and dense trees guard the fairway to the left. As this is a medium-length par 4, the emphasis is again on accuracy for the second shot. Large maintained bunkers protect the front and left portions of the green. Grass bunkers in the front right, right and rear areas of the green protect the remainder of it. The drive will be with a driver or fairway wood, the second shot with a medium to short iron.
2	5	532	On this relatively short par 5, the player's success once again begins on the tee. A long and accurate drive will enable the majority of players to attempt to reach the green in two shots. Dense trees on both sides, with a lateral water hazard to the right, protect the sloped landing area of the drive. A small pond and a large fairway bunker on the right guard the fairway and green from 175 yards out. Deep maintained bunkers are on both sides of the green, along with numerous grass bunkers. The mounds located around this green give spectators a good view of players attempting to reach the green in two shots and players attempting to save par.
3	3	177	A maintained spectator mound to the left of this medium-length par 3 offers a view of the entire hole. A shot requiring a medium to short iron is needed to reach the two-tiered green which slopes from back to front. A bunker in the front of the green and grass bunkers to the right protect what is left unguarded by a large maintained bunker to the left and rear left portion of the green. There probably will be more birdies scored here than on the other par-3 holes.
4	4	384	This short par 4 requires accuracy on every shot. The drive must avoid a lateral water hazard and a deep meandering fairway bunker on the right. Very large and severely sloped mounds protect the left side of this narrow landing area. A well-struck long iron or fairway wood from the tee will enable the player to hit a medium to short iron to one of the toughest greens on the course. Numerous treacherous pin placements on this very undulating two-tiered green make this a protected target and a tough shot. A water hazard protects the front and the left side of the green, while small but deep maintained bunkers protect the green on the right and in the rear. Tremendous mounds behind the green give spectators a view of the entire hole. A birdie can turn into a double bogey here very quickly.
5	4	466	This dogleg right offers a generous landing area for the drive, as it is the longest par 4 on the golf course. A long fairway bunker down the right side and beyond the landing area for the drive protects the fairway. After hitting a driver from the tee, the players will use long to middle irons on their second shots to this deep, narrow and rolling green. The green is protected by grass bunkers, maintained bunkers, a waste area and palm trees. This will be one of the hardest holes to play, and par will be a very welcome score.
6	4	393	This hole is a perfect example of target golf. The drive must avoid dense palm and pine trees on the right and two fairway bunkers and a lateral water hazard on the left. The slightly elevated green is protected by maintained bunkers, grass bunkers and clustered palm trees. The specific landing area on this hole offers players a level lie for their approach to the two-tiered green, which slopes down from right to left and back to front. Uneven and awkward lies, the result of shots that narrowly missed their targets, will cause higher scores on this hole. The players' short games will be tested here on a daily basis.
7	4	442	A long slight dogleg right. A vast fairway bunker and a lateral water hazard running almost the entire length of the hole guard the left side of the fairway. The right side of the landing area is lined by thick trees. The driving area is very large and the preferred side is dictated by the pin placement. A tee shot on the left is preferred for a pin cut on the right and a drive from the right is desired for a hole located in the rear or left. The green is protected by maintained bunkers in the front and to the left and severe slope off the back. The wind direction on this hole can make it very difficult to score well.
8	3	219	The longest par 3 on the course requires a long iron or fairway wood to carry a myriad of obstacles. The deep, narrow and sloping green is protected by numerous maintained bunkers and grass bunkers. This is another hole that puts pressure on the players' short games. Par again will be very welcome on this demanding par 3.
9	5	583	The ninth hole is considered by many to be one of the finest par 5s in the country. A large lake and bunker to the right of the fairway collect stray drives, while woods to the left hinder second shots. The most important shot on this hole is the second. This shot will be a long iron or fairway wood directed to the right side of the fairway. To the left, a wandering fairway bunker and large oak trees crowd the small second-shot landing area. The green is very thin and severely sloped from the front to the back right. A severely banked maintained bunker guards the left and rear of the green, along with a small maintained bunker. Another small bunker in the front causes problems for players coming up short. Approach shots to the green will be with a medium to short iron. As this hole progresses from the tee to the green, it becomes more narrow and demanding. This hole can make or break a good outward nine holes. There is a new spectator mound behind the green.
10	4	424	The inward nine begins with a dogleg par 4, just as the front nine does. However, the 10th hole doglegs to the left, with a large bunker down the left side of the fairway and very dense trees to the right. Again, the narrow landing area for the drive demands accuracy. Most players will select a fairway wood from the tee to set up a middle or short iron approach to the green, which is protected by two maintained bunkers in the front right. Grass bunkers crowd the entire left side of this deceiving green. From the landing area the green appears to be very large; actually, it is narrow and fades away from the players. This green offers a variety of pin placements, making the position of the drive very important.
11	5	535	This hole is a strategically designed middle-length par 5, which presents a variety of possibilities and potential disasters. Players attempting to reach this green in two shots must have a long and accurate drive down the right side. An immense fairway bunker stops shots hit through the left of the fairway, and dense trees knock down shots hit left of the driving area. Large overhanging trees crowd the preferred right side. Because the fairway is split by a lateral water hazard and two large bunkers, the player can elect to hit a middle iron to the fairway area on the right, which is guarded by a large oak tree. From this position a short iron to wedge is needed for the third shot. A more daring alternative is to approach the green from the left side of the split fairway. This alternative requires a second shot lofted high enough to clear another oak tree and the continuing bunker. The large maintained bunker runs the length of the second shot landing area and continues up and around the green. The lateral water hazard that splits the fairway continues around the back of the green. One maintained bunker covers the front of the green.
12	4	358	Because this is the shortest par 4 on the golf course, there is a premium on accuracy from the tee. A long iron or fairway wood will enable players to position their drives strategically for a short iron or pitch shot approach to this small and heavily guarded green. Woods and a huge fairway bunker line the right side of the driving area, and huge mounds with very deep grass bunkers tower over the left side. Players driving short or to the left of their target sometimes will be unable to see the flagstick because of the large mounds. In this case a short iron will be needed. Players whose drives are far enough forward or to the right will approach the green with a wedge. Maintained bunkers and varied grass bunkers surround the small green.
13	3	181	A water hazard protects this picturesque par 3 all the way down the left side. Players must clear or manoeuvre around the water hazard when the pin placements are to the left. The green has three separate tiers. The highest is the right front quarter. The right rear quarter is just slightly lower and slopes away from the tee. The entire left side of the green slopes drastically toward the water. The green also is protected by two small and deep maintained bunkers. Spectators can get a great view from all the mounded areas on this medium length par 3. Short to middle irons will be the choice of the majority of players.
14	4	467	Traditionally, this hole has been one of the toughest to play. The narrow two-tiered driving area is paralleled down the left side by a narrow fairway bunker and a lateral water hazard. The right side is overshadowed by large, deep grass bunkers located within a very large mound. Between the driving area and the green is a vast bunker. The green is very large with severe undulations and long slopes. A maintained bunker protects the front left side of the green and a few other maintained bunkers hide among very large grass bunkers to the right and the rear of the green. A driver from the tee and a long to medium iron are the club selections on this treacherous hole.
15	4	449	This dogleg right begins with a drive through a chute of trees and over water. The fairway bunker extends down the right side of the fairway to a paved path, then resumes to the left of the path and extends almost to the green. A large maintained bunker to the left and a small maintained bunker to the right front protect the green. There are grass bunkers to the right and rear of the green. The hole is normally played with a driver from the tee and a medium to short iron from the fairway.
16	5	507	This short par 5 will give many players an opportunity to reach the green in two shots. A fairway wood or long iron will be required for the second shot, which must carry a large lateral water hazard, a maintained bunker and a bulkhead. All of these obstacles are to the right of the hole and start 150 yards from the green. To the left, a cluster of oak trees blocks a clear path to the green. Players who do not choose to attempt the green in two shots must direct their second shot to the narrow area protected by a grass bunker, a water hazard and the cluster of oak trees. The green has two tiers, sloping left to right toward the water that wraps around the rear of the green. There is a new spectator mound behind the green.
17	3	137	In its brief history, the island hole has become one of the most renowned of its kind in the world. Each year it is the most popular among spectators. The signature hole is a short length par 3 with a wide green that narrows to the right side. The right side of the green is protected by a small maintained bunker, which sometimes will be a relief to players who come up short of the green. Club selection on this hole is critically important; with the tricky winds of spring, the Championship could be won or lost here. A larger spectator mound has been created behind the green.
18	4	447	A fantastic dogleg left awaits the players as they prepare to finish their rounds. Constant accuracy is of the utmost importance on this hole. Water guards the full length of the hole to the left, while large spectator mounds and trees line the right side. A collection of grass bunkers is situated in the front-right section of the green, while a lone maintained bunker stops shots hit left and long. This 18th has become one of the premier finishing holes in golf. There is a new spectator mound behind the green.

Course data taken from PGA Tour website

Past Players winners

2000 – H Sutton

2001 – T Woods

2002 – C Perks

2003 – D Love III

2004 – A Scott

2005 – F Funk

2006 – S Ames

2007 – P Mickelson

Selections

Jim Furyk – Looking through the past performances put up here by Jim there are mixed messages. Finishes of: T3 & T4 are the only Top 10 finishes to date from 12 appearances and although there have been other Top 15 finishes, in the main, the form Jim has shown at a course that he ought to know very well, has been a little disappointing. That said, the last time Jim came here in any kind of form (2006) saw his best finish of T3 and that lends me to believe that he is finally coming to terms with this awkward golf course and my interest is aroused once more. Looking at what Jim has managed thus far in 2008, we can be more than hopeful that his game is coming to the boil at just the right time for this particular challenge. 7^th at Wachovia & 4^th at Verizon make for good reading and although I didn’t get to see exactly how he performed last week, I’m certainly confident that his performance at Harbour Town was plenty good enough to put him bang there come Sunday. I like Jim’s chances this week and feel that the prices available about him are slightly on the generous side…. Fill those boots I would suggest!

Retief Goosen – The enigma that is Retief Goosen is next on the list this week. I have to confess to not having worked this guy out quite yet, as he often disappoints just when I feel he’s ready to rock and roll, and conversely he hoses up just when I feel he is out with the washing. So why even consider putting him up I hear you scream?? Well, the law of averages states that surely it’s possible to call his performance correctly at some point, and with this law allied to close scrutiny of both his current and course form, I think I might have him on my side this time round. Retief, a two time US Open Champion, is currently on the comeback trail from a baron spell at the highest level and is showing signs of the kind of form that previously saw him eating at the top table of world golf. It’s fair to say that Retief appears to save his very best for the bigger events on Tour. To date he has managed to bag relatively few events on the PGA Tour; however, amongst those he has captured are the two previously mentioned US Open titles and sitting nicely alongside those a Tour Championship title. Goosen certainly appears to have the ability to peak for the big events; you only need to look at his Major record to see that he is right up there with the very best come the big tournaments. I touched on my thoughts regarding his bounce back to form earlier and this was born out by his T2 performance in the CA Championship and a stellar effort in The Masters. Pricing this event up I have Goosen inside the top 6 in the betting, but plenty of bookmakers disagree with me and therefore plenty of value can be found.

Stephen Ames – The man with the whitest teeth on the planet has always grabbed my attention for this particular event, and at the risk of after-timing, I managed to bag him at a very nice price in 2006. Stephen is renowned as an excellent wind player and this will possibly hold him in good stead this week, as there can often be plenty of wind to contend with on at least one of the 4 competition days. A second place finish behind Craig Perks in 2002, T17 in 2003, T13 in 2004 and the win he managed in 2006 ought to lay some solid foundations for another good showing this week. So far 2008 hasn’t seen the very best from Ames, with his only Top 10 finishes coming in the shape of a 3^rd place in the Mercedes and thereafter a T10 finish in The Sony. On the plus side only one missed cut and some positive showings in events like The Masters. It’s difficult to get too excited about Stephen’s chances this week, but a small play at a very nice price ought to give a run for the stake.

Camilo Villegas – It’s probably fair to say that there has often been more attention paid to Camilo’s good looks and strapping guns than his golf game, but those of us not attracted to the male sex are able to put that nonsense aside and concentrate on what his golf game has to offer. The first thing to say is that Camilo isn’t one to hold back on the golf course, as he will happily attack all in front of him. He hits the ball a country mile and that’s always a bonus around Sawgrass. Obviously his tendency to go all out attack could easily see him hitting into trouble on more than one occasion over 72 holes, but this needs to be factored into his price. The Columbian only turned Professional in 2004 and has therefore only managed two appearances here which saw a T3 finish in 2006 and a missed cut last year. So far this year Camilo has managed a best place finish of T7 at Verizon, but there have been plenty of T30 finishes all told. I like this kid’s chance this week at the very fair price on offer.

Jerry Kelly – This weeks ‘leftfield’ pick comes in the shape of the man once voted the worst player on Tour by his peers. A somewhat tongue in cheek award no doubt, but although many pro’s appear not to rate Jerry’s game, some of his performances here at Sawgrass beg to differ. In 2001 Jerry managed 4^th place and he backed that up the following year with T11. 2004 saw a T6 finish, but missed cuts in 2005 & 2006 were followed with T28 last year. I couldn’t possibly describe my feelings for a great performance this week as being anything other than tentative, but once again the value cannot be doubted.

Staking

Jim Furyk– 0.75 pt each way @ 21 Outright (Paddy Power) 1/4 6 places

Retief Goosen – 0.75 pt each way @ 41 Outright (Paddy Power) 1/4 6 places

Stephen Ames – 0.5 pt each way @ 81 Outright (Paddy Power) 1/4 6 places

Camilo Villegas – 0.25 pt each way @ 91 Outright (Paddy Power) 1/4 6 places

Jerry Kelly – 0.5 pt @ 23 Top 10 (Extrabet)

Enjoy the golf and good luck if you’re punting - Long Ron.

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