NFL week 11






Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants



16th November 2008

The Giants will be able to test whether Flacco's improvement under pressure is due to being pressured less, or some genuine improvement.
At the start of the season he was making big errors when put under pressure and although those have stopped, he's been under less pressure in recent games. The Giants will change that.
On the other side of the ball, the Giants running game has been virtually unstoppable, even by the alleged (I'm not entirely convinced) stifling rush D of the Eagles. The only team who has really coped with them has been Pittsburgh, however the fact that anyone has coped with them means there's hope for the Ravens. They do afterall have the best rush D in the NFL.
 
It's hard to tell how these #1 vs #1 matchups turn out, but with the predicted wind hitting 18mph as I type this, it's likely we'll find out.
I've gone for the correlated parlay here. Either the Ravens stop the Giants and keep the score down and close, or they don't.
 
I always put where I actually placed the bet so there's no paper-trading, as long as the site is recognised as a trustworthy site.

STATS

Pick: 2 pts: Baltimore +7/under 40.5 parlay (double) +260 (3.60), Bet Jamaica,
 
 
Philadelphia Eagles @ Cincinnati Bengals



16th November 2008

You don't need much reason to back a large home dog, in fact you can almost bet them blind.
Thankfully this one has plenty of good reason to back it anyway, so you don't have to just take my word on it.
It is generally accepted both by forums and by stats that Philly have a great rush D. It's good, no doubt, but the likes of Portis and Gore have already torn holes in it this year. Lesser players have managed to get at least some yardage and the Giants got 219 yards on the ground against them. It's clearly beatable.
Cinci are coming off a bye. In general I think Bye weeks are a bit overrated in the markets, but this one seemed to be a useful one. Fitzpatrick has been gradually improving but I'm sure he and his team will appreciate the extra week to iron some things out.
They will definitely have a go at running this. Benson is back and they'll try to take time off the clock from the outset.
 
On the other side of the ball, Cinci have got it to do. Their pass D has been pretty weak so far and McNabb could just light them up.
That of course is why they're getting a whole heap of points at home.

STATS
 
Pick: 3pts Cincinnati +9.5, Pinnacle sports -108 (1.926)
 
 
St Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers



16th November 2008

The Rams' only two wins have come when S.Jackson has started for them. He's not playing this week. The rest of their offense has been pretty much a disaster. Other than SJax, they have struggled to do anything at all.
Despite Bulger being named QB until the end of the season, Green played the second half in last weeks massacre by the Jets. There's a general air of headless chickenery in the Rams camp. Pittman is capable of the occasional long run, but he just doesn't have the backup to pound away all day.
On the other side of the ball, they're just as hopeless, but the cavalry comes to the rescue here because the 49ers have Quarterback issues of their own. I lost count at seven last week the number of interceptions that Hill tried to throw and even Mike Martz is going to have difficulty letting him loose to find the only obvious means to defeat (His quarterback passing to the rams defenders).
I imagine Singletary will have explained to Martz that they have one good player, and that's Gore. On top of that, the Rams pass D is a fraction less catastrophic than their rush D. More Gore please.
 
After watching the farce in the last minute in Arizona, I'd feel a little nervous giving up nearly a touchdown to anyone with this team, but the unders looks to have some value as we have a combination of running and ineptness that could turn out nicely.

STATS
 
Pick: 3pts STL/SF u43.5, Pinnacle sports -103 (1.97)
 
 
Teaser play:

Do NOT take this bet if you have to take WAS +7 or Ind-3, either of those two will kill all your value stone dead. Also, do not take 5/6. If you can get evens at my prices, you can take five stars. It is a maths play based on crossing key numbers 3 and 7 and taking the maximum value. Some of you will know how this works already. I will go through it for those that don't at some point in the future.
 
Pick: 4pts: Washingon +7.5/Indianapolis -2, teaser, Bodoglife (note teasers don't show up unless you log in at dot com) -110 (10/11, 1.91)

Lori