As a punter, I can honestly say I have not endured such a frustrating run for over six years of golf betting. Just missing out on the Portuguese winner, I was convinced that Jimenez was the absolute correct call going into Sundays play. Standing on the 10^th fairway, Maj was on cruise control, 15-under, and playing in a very relaxed method, it was a simple matter of playing the course and picking up a shot or two on the Par 5s. The Golfing Gods, however, weren’t with us, and after the two drowned approaches to 10, I would think my groans could be heard in deepest Seville. It is easy to criticise his approach play to tight pins, but punters should be aware that it was because of these ’risky’ approaches, that he had many opportunity to hit Eagle on the Par 5s (although he took very few). The second ’penalty’ approach was somewhat unforgivable, and with -15 under winning the event, I’m glad that he takes the week off from the European Tour!

Well done to those that found eventual winner Peter Lawrie, as I certainly couldn’t, and viewers of the final round will have noticed that third round leader Ignacio Garrido played much better when Maj let him off-the-hook. Credit to him for coming right back into the event under immense pressure, and it shouldn’t be long before he gains revenge and strikes another win. Lawrie is one of those players that never wins, and would actually have been somewhat of a perfect contender had he teed it up this week.

This weeks Italian Open is held for the 5^th consecutive year at the Castello di Tolcinasco Golf Club, Milan, and that means for the first time in ages that we have consistent course and distance form to work with. The tournament takes place over a very easy, but beautiful 7200-yard course, and has produced previous winners with scores of  -18 and -23, and even scores of -16 and -19 over weather-shortened three-round events. Previous stats show that Holes 1 and 9, easy Par 5s have produced 75 and 72 Eagles respectively in just 3 years play (11 rounds), so a confident start from the first tee can really get the pulse racing. Interestingly the 8^th hole, a short Par 3 over water, and the 18^th, a shortish par 4 (again over water) are two of the trickiest holes on the course. Mistakes will be seriously punished mainly due to losing shots to the field, and whilst water surrounds 10 of the 18 holes, a touch of accuracy, and a great putting week, could see scores in excess of -20. For those interested, the course can be viewed as a plan, or a flyover HERE:

So, to the actual punting! This event was never before broadcast as a live event on Sky Sports, but Golf being the worldwide attraction it is, now benefits from that excellent broadcaster. The tournament has often been seen as a stepping stone for non-winners (rather like the Russian Open), and away from the cameras, players like Steve Webster, Francesco Molinari, and Gonzo (Fedez-Castano) have found their careers either revived or commencing. I do think that live pictures make a difference to certain players, who ’freeze’ as they realise their position on the ’board, and any perusal through the event record shows that course form, and current form is a must to finding the winner.

Heading the betting are the afore-mentioned Molinari, and Nick Dougherty. It is very difficult to argue the case against Moli, other than the price. Winner in -23 in 2006, he then found a third and final round 65, to share 3^rd in defence of his home title. Although his only win on the main Tour, Moli has produced Top 10 and Top 15 placings aplenty. With his Greens in Regulation stats stacking up to an excellent level and a 5^th (Malaysia), a 3^rd in China, everything seems set on him having another fantastic week. Last week saw the Spanish ’home’ players play under intense pressure, but Moli has looked very good at certain points in recent events - the boost this tournament gives him renders him a very worthy favourite.

The 21.0 about Moli has now gone, and that isn’t surprising given that main market rival, Nick Dougherty, has suffered the tragic loss of his mother this week. I’m surprised that he still playing just two days after the funeral, and he must have more important things on his mind, and any golf form must be ignored for this week at least. Personal tragedy can lead to a player going one of two distinct ways, but as with fellow player, Rafael Jacquelin who also suffered deaths in his close ’family’, he must be left out where betting is concerned.  

The field , as a whole, contains very little winning form, and the likes of Soren Kjeldsen (always fancied but no Top 10s in recent events, and  a player I don’t take to),  and Alex Noren ( a maiden trading at a silly 26 in general) make no appeal at the odds. Incidentally, I put the spread of Ewan Murray’s ‘Norens got a great swing, he’ll win soon, I love him’ at 8-10 throughout the final round - and there is only one way that market will move!

Because of this Anders Hansen, a player taking a drop in class after a decent foray to the States must be a huge runner. Winner twice at Wentworth, Anders is a lot more reliable in front than the other Hansens that frequent the Tour and his latest efforts have shown some strong finishes. With one ninth place and two seconds on this course, he does give the impression that he will go very low indeed at some point this week, and is extremely hard to leave out, but with Molinari just preferred, I will take Hansen in-running.

Mention must be given to the likes of Philip Archer, Hennie Otto, and Miles Tunnicliffe. All are very tempting prices given the class that they carry, whilst the likes of Marcus Brier and Bradley Dredge have very decent recent form but are not putting it all together. They could all take a hand this week, and this will be another tournament where some vital points are kept alive for betting at the end of the third and fourth round.

I have to make selections, and I will back Alistair Forsyth. I have been taken by the change in attitude that Ali has been showing recently. His win in Madeira was due to a more positive and relaxed outlook and that play-off defeat in Portugal was more proof that his game from tee-to-green is in tip-top shape. He did miss the cut last week, but after an opening 75, he showed up very well in a second-round -5, and that still shows the spirit and will to win and improve. He does have a nice 5^th over this course, and last years 21^st came when he was in that sort of moody persona. I trust him to be able to exploit the Par 5s, and to have a very good week at an attractive 34.

There are a variety of players all around the same price that can be given huge chances. Robert Karlsson can produce amazing iron shots, and comes here back on the back of a Masters 8^th - however, if you do back him, rush out when he hits the front, as the defeat in Hong Kong perfectly illustrated. Charl Schwartzel, fresh from being a market leader missing the cut, is available at 6 points longer against a similar field. His current from contains 5 Top 10s from 7 starts, but his course form is uninspiring. Oliver Wilson and Andrew Mclardy, however, are both very much in form. Wilson has an Italian 2^nd (Challenge Tour) and a course 14^th to boast of, and his current form suggests that he will challenge. Again though, he finds those 5-footers on payday to be his nemeses, and as shown against Damien McGrane in China, he cannot be trusted when smelling a winning chance. Having said that, I have mentioned that this is the type of event that ’maidens’ do well in, and that could easily be the case with any of these. Mclardy has course form reading 7/12/6 and two recent Top 10s including 2 x 66s and a 65, and he will be included in the back-to-lays.

Defending Champion, ’Gonzo’ (Fedez-Castano) can point to very impressive 1/6 course figure, and played well to get 5^th in Portugal. This place clearly brings out the best in him, and he makes considerable appeal for a Top 10 place, in a field where only 20 or so can be seriously expected to make a challenge.

I leant last week, with Jimenez, that you should forgive a player one bad event, and I might do the same with Thomas Levet. Seemingly back to form with the play-off win in Andalucía, and the celebratory 24^th in Portugal, his Green in Regulation figures still remain appealing round a short course. The 2^nd in 2004 is also a good pointer to his chances and it is surprising to see him the same price as in-form, but impossible-to-win-with David Lynn.

The ’coathanger’ again caught the eye with an excellent final round 66 last week in Spain - he can also boast 6^th in Malaysia and 8^th in Levet’s tournament. Always appealing as a back-to-lay at some point in a tournament, he may improve on a best Italian open place of 19^th.

I am going to take a chance on a couple of larger price players. I have tipped up Phillip Archer a couple of times this year, and he has let me down in big style. He is seemingly nothing like the man who boasted three 2nds last year, or the player who was 17^th and 9^th in the winter Asian events. I cannot forget the way he played against Bret Rumford in last years play-off defeat however, and his price of 67 is, once again, far too big for a player with his game.

Another player I will take a chance with is last week’s surprise 4^th, Alfredo Garcia-Heredia. Although playing on a sponsors invitation, and with unremarkable figures on the Challenge our, he showed some outstanding quality iron play and nerves of steel on his putts when watched by the biggest crowd he will have faced. Danny Willett sowed that some of these youngsters are really not fazed by one good week (my word, can that lad play, he will be a huge star), and at a silly three-figure price, I’ll take the chance that Garcia-Heredia goes on from that super debut.

This is an event that will change so much in-running. Sure, there are only a few players that can actually win the Trophy, but they are all similarly priced. Itch the aforementioned game-eagle holes scores will be low, and I don’t fancy anyone making the Top half-dozen after a poor first round. As such, the market will probably over-react to a good first and second round, and the Payday preview is a must do (and I hope a must-read!). I will take a flyer on a couple of Top 10s, and hope they manage to succeed in paying for the genuine challengers.

Good Luck

ALISTAIR FORSYTH     0.75pt EACH WAY          @ 34 (SPORTING,VC,CORAL)

FRANI MOLIANARI       1.00pt WIN                         @ 19 (GENERAL)

PHILIP ARCHER           0.25pt EACH WAY           @ 67 (GENERAL)

GARCIA-HEREDIA       0.25pt EACH WAY           @ 151 (EXTRABET)

FEDEZ-CASTANO      1.0pt    TOP 10                   @ 4.33 (GENERAL)

THOMAS LEVET         1.0pt    TOP 10                   @ 4.5 (GENERAL)

BACK-TO-LAY

ANDERS HANSEN      2.0pts                                   @  23 (BETFAIR)

ANDERS HANSEN      2.0pts LAY                           @  10 (BETFAIR)