When the Italian leagues go to their end, it’s always hard to predict the outcome. Motivation is the keyword. Of course the bookies also know that, so it’s always hard to see any value odds, especially because in these kind of matches the risk is much higher than in a “normal” match. For this one but last round I see one match with good value:

Udinese – Cagliari

Udinese 3-4-3

Hadanovic; Zapata, Coda, Lukovic; Mesto, D’Agostino, Inler, Dossena; Pepe, Quagliarella, Di Natale

Cagliari 4-3-1-2

Storari; Bianco, Lopez, Canini, Agostini; Biondini, Cossu, Fini, Foggia; Acquafresca, Jeda

Cagliari showed very good performances in their past games, losing only against Inter and AC Milan on the road in the last 9 games overall. But in these games they had to fight against relegation, after the win against Fiorentina at home (2:1) they are practically saved. Like I said before, motivation.

Udinese on the other hand is on a 2 game winning streak. Of course you can say here too, where is the motivation for Udine? They have qualified for UEFA Cup (Cup Final between Inter-Roma) and position four is a too far away with four points gap. So I do not think that motivation would be immense at Udine, but they are playing in front of their fans who surely want to see a good team. Cagliari is happy to have saved the league, which was a difficult undertaking for this team. I just do not see them wanting to fight here again, because this season has surely charged energy.

For this game Cagliari can’t count on Conti, the match winner in the last game with his great goal in the 2:1 against Fiorentina.

Udinese can count on all first 11 players

Due to the fact of the good form of Udine, the home advantage and the higher quality, I go small with Udine:

PICK: Udine -0.5, stake 1/5, 2.33 (pinnaclesports/10bet)