Sorry, just seen this. Was on my way to the match at Widnes when it was posted. Hope you picked up on my general theme of opposing jaded teams.

Any thoughts for the Barrow match?

I must confess that I have just opened an account with pinnacle this week and I guess my own wagers have spoilt the prices to some degree. I'm afraid this happens a lot especially with rugby league as it is a minority betting sport and the bookmakers fear betting to their opinion. In future I will avoid pinnacle recommendations unless i feel that they are way out and even an adjusted line would be worth a wager.

Well done on the tipping.

I note that you have tipped overs on the points with Pinnacle. The problem with Pinnacle is they will open up with early lines and let one or two shrewdies on at small stakes. They realise that they are effectively paying people a small amount to form a market. Once the market has been corrected they will allow larger stakes but the players "edge" will have disappeared. In reality, only the first person that reads your article will be able to get on at the price you recommend as Pinnacle automatically adjust these early prices on every single bet placed.

So you do check in here! I forgot to also thank for your other tips too. I have so much blind faith in your knowledge, especially that of getting an edge when there is value, that I did not lay off my Salford bet. I toyed with the idea as I reckoned that when you wrote your article you did not know that they would be travelling by bus! Your R.O.I. figures make pretty reading.

Anyway market moves don't always come to fruition so I stuck with the bet on the Reds. The only pick of my own for the weekend was Quins on the cap and match odds. I mentioned on pl and the bf forum that I felt the handicap was the wrong way round for that particular match. Shame that I did not have more confidence in my own selection. I also lost 3pts on Wigan.

I also bet all your picks for teams with the start on the match odds too, to small stakes.

You may recall the week before that Bulls drifted just before the off at Catalans to 1.96, so I took some of that as I felt it was value. Even though my team news expertise is nil, I figured it was value on recent form alone.

deviant

Thanks Deviant, betting aside, it was a fantastic day to be a Barrow fan. We have had many dark years but days like that become all the sweeter for it.

I don't think you often read this message board, but just as I posted on the bf forum

deviant  18 Apr 17:11
Thank you The Man

deviant  18 Apr 17:15
A big thank you to The Man. Your team gave Castleford one hell of a beating. Great match odds as well as handicap.

It's one thing knowing there is unrest in the opposition camp but it's another to come back like that and make the supporters proud.

The 8th consecutive winning bet with the points sell of Haven v Barrow. Many thanks for the excellent info on the Haven pitch and the team news.

Great selection last night I think this season is exciting because new players and teams are coming to the fore.

Sorry Kinnecash, I didn't look at the message board. I'll try to check more frequently in future if anyone wants to pose a question

Afternoon Steve, would be interested to hear your thoughts on the Bulls Cas game if u were willing to share them.

Its York I've backed. Sorry if it was unclear.

Pick: Oldham 3pts @ 1.72 with Bet365 or Stan James

mmm do you mean york or hedging your bets ?

Thanks for this The Man

I basically look at how the market is forming and I must confess I use robots to place the majority of my bets. The bots are self-made and aren't really rocket science. They follow the same rules that I would follow if I was to put my bets in manually but it just saves a lot of time. Also allows wagers to be placed 24/7 so all the Aus racing for eg is being traded whilst I sleep.

How do u keep on top of so many markets? I follow horse racing and several other sports closely but i would never be confident enough to offer a book on every race or event. Do u start with a rough guide to ure 108% and then see how the market is forming? I honestly dont know how u do it so late on, too

Sorry it's taken so long but here's some pointers.

First of all I would describe myself as a market maker and operate in a similar way to most bookmakers. I rely on my over-round to give me long term profit. I fully accept that I can and do lose on individual events but I just hope the overround works for me in the long run.
For something like a football match I might do a 108% book. So there's 8% working in my favour. No one can price things up with 100% accuracy so hopefully the 8% covers my margin of error, commission and still have room for some profit.
I would say that it is more difficult to win pre-off on 2 runner events such as say a tennis match. There's always people out there with decent knowledge of sports.
Much more easy are the mutli-runner markets such as Correct Score in a soccer match where there are a number of outcomes and you can get away with a higher % book.

Moving to the question of horse racing I agree that putting in uninformed early money to the exchange markets is suicidal. I've tried various methods with a bit of trial and error to win at the horses and I can now say that I have fairly consistent results.
I put my money in to the markets with around 1 min to the off. You may be surprised to know that I get many horses matched even if I am nowhere near front row when my prices go in. I never have a green book I simply am letting my overround work in the long run. The reason I leave it so late is because all the shrewd money will then be in the market. Any further movement in prices is more than likely from sheep who are following the market moves. But as a general rule steamers usually steam too far. If a horse has shortened from 7/1 to 3/1 in the 30 mins before the off then more likely than not the true price will be somewhere between those figures. The original shrewd backers will be OK at their 7/1 but it will be the layers who are happy once its as low as 3/1.
For other sports I put in prices much much earlier depending on the event. For eg I might price a Premier League football match up a week in advance, depends really how much form is in the public domain and I'll keep an eye on whether the bookmakers have priced events up.
As for commission based on my current methods I couldn't make the game pay at 4.5%. My breakeven figure is 3% and if the commission figures were to rise I would be in a quandry. I certainly would have to be more selective or I would have to increase my over-rounds which in itself may affect turnover. I just pray it doesn't happen.
Fortunately becuase I win and lose such big numbers I haven't been hit by the premium charge and don't think I'm likely to under current rules as I pay around 50% in commission.

did the man get back to u Jimmy?

The Man

Please could you offer me your key poins for pre game laying on Betfair. Obviously I'm not expecting any secrets but just the key 5 or 6 things I should be looking at when laying pre-match on sports I don't have an opinion on. Also which markets (if any) woud you suggest I concentrate on (personally I feel the pre race horse racing markets are for those with inside info only).

I have a decent sized bank and fully understand it's about the long term numbers game. Is it possible to make a long term profit if starting out at 4.5% comission rate ?

If you would prefer the please e-mail your respone to hedleylamar@fsmail.net.

Thanks

I'm sorry I haven't really made use of this message board but if anyone my advice on anything betting wise especially exchange betting I'll look in more often and respond as best I can. Rugby League is my primary subject for betting with opinion but I'm actually a layer of virtually every sport and every market on Betfair. On a busy Saturday I could have as much as ?1 million tied up in bets on the exchanges. Got involved in Betfair pretty much from day 1 and have turned an initial bank of ?17K in to ?1.7 million along with my 3 partners. Don't think there will be many out there with as much pre-match laying knowledge.

Well done great tip on Batley yesterday and in particular to have the confidence to make it a maximum, though at 10-0 down after a few minutes things did not look too promising, you never really know with these big handicaps though until the last few minutes either way as teams tire dramatically in the last 20mins on occasions

Wow - 22 Boyles even better

Hey mate like the look of Wake - 26 tomorrow depending on what team they put out.